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0702 2025

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Dollar Steady as Markets Await Key Nonfarm Payrolls Data

Bas Kooijman

The US Dollar held steady as market participants brace for today's Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data. The report is expected to bring clarity following a week of mixed economic signals. Recent strong ADP Employment Change figures, contrasting with higher-than-expected initial jobless claims, have created a degree of uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's next move.

A robust NFP reading would likely encourage traders to anticipate a more hawkish Fed, supporting the US currency. Conversely, weak data might push traders toward a dovish outlook, increasing selling pressure on the currency. The market continues to price a two 25 basis point cut this year, while recent Fed comments reinforce caution.

San Francisco Fed President Daly and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee highlighted the importance of reducing inflation to the 2% target, citing the strength of the economy and a robust labor market. Despite this optimistic outlook, hopes of easing trade tensions, buoyed by delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, have weighed on the dollar.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields continue to recover from recent declines. The 10-year note remained below the 4.5% mark, pressured by recent comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who expressed a preference for lower longer-term yields.

Bas Kooijman

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