The Japanese yen surged to its strongest level against the dollar since May and reached multi-month highs against other major currencies ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming meeting. Anticipated actions, including a rate hike and reduced bond purchases, indicate a shift from the central bank’s longstanding monetary stimulus. This appreciation in yen was driven by the unwinding of yen carry trades as yield differentials could continue to shrink as monetary policy start to change. The yen’s strength was further supported by a broader market sell-off and the currency’s safe-haven appeal.

At the same time, Japanese government bond (JGB) yields continue to show volatility close to their highest levels this year amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates again when it meets next week, leaving market participants unsettled ahead of the meeting. The anticipation of BoJ’s potential policy shifts will likely keep the yen on its upward trajectory in the near term, while JGB yields might remain elevated, with the 10-year yield stabilizing above the 1.05% mark, driven by the unwinding of yen carry trades and broader monetary policy changes.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/yen-reaches-multi-month-highs-ahead-of-bank-of-japan-meeting/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

The dollar recorded some volatility today but could remain within its downtrend overall while traders expect the start of interest rate cuts in March despite several Fed members attempting to temper market optimism. The dollar could follow treasury yields in their decline. Traders could remain cautious however ahead of the release of GDP and PCE data in the next two days. 

The British Pound declined today following an unexpected drop in inflation levels. The data fueled speculations that the Bank of England could start cutting rates earlier than previously expected. The change in expectations could weigh on the currency and could weigh on its rebound.

The Japanese yen could continue to see some downside risks after the Bank of Japan maintained its rates unchanged. Expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy remained unanswered and could leave the currency with less support after accumulating gains against the dollar for the last couple of weeks.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/forex-market-awaits-gdp-and-pce-data-as-pound-and-yen-under-pressure/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

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Forex market awaits GDP and PCE data as pound and yen under pressure

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The yen rebounded against the US dollar following speculation of an intervention by Japanese authorities aimed at stabilizing the currency. The dollar declined, retracing to nearly 155 on the dollar-yen pair from its earlier peak above 160. This move came as a response to concerns about the yen’s steep decline to levels not seen in over three decades. Masato Kanda, Japan’s top currency diplomat, did not comment on the intervention, but risks remain for other interventions. 

The depreciation of the Japanese currency had raised expectations of action from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The yen’s weakness persisted due to low interest rates compared to other currencies like the dollar, favoring carry trades. The BoJ’s shift away from negative interest rates failed to dissuade traders from shorting the yen. Japanese bond yields rose near this year’s high and could climb further if expectations of interest rate hikes strengthen. 

Traders now anticipate a series of Japanese economic data releases that could support the yen’s appreciation in case of stronger-than-expected figures. While projections suggest a decline in the unemployment rate to 2.5% in March, year-over-year retail sales in Japan are anticipated to decrease to 2.5% in March from 4.6%. On Wednesday, attention will shift to US data and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Sources: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/yen-rebounds-amid-boj-intervention-speculation/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

<a href="https://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/Today_market_analysis_on_behalf_of_Bas_Kooijman_is_the_CEO_and_Asset_Manager_of_DHF_Capital_S_A_451636962.html" target="_blank"> TradingCharts.com </a>

Yen rebounds amid BoJ intervention speculation

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Yen Reaches Multi-Month Highs Ahead of Bank of Japan Meeting

Japanese government bond yields trade close to year-to-date highs amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates again next week, Philippe Schneider, DHF Capital's global head of sales, says in a note. "The anticipation of BOJ's potential policy shifts will likely keep the yen on its upward trajectory in the near term, while Japanese government bond yields might remain elevated, with the 10-year yield stabilizing above the 1.05% mark," he says. This should be driven by unwinding of yen carry trades and broader monetary-policy changes, he says. The 10-year Japanese bond yield trades at 1.053%, versus a year-to-date high around 1.10%, according to Refinitiv. The yen hits a near 12-week high against the...

Read more on <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20240725005751:0/" target="_blank"> TradingView </a>

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Japanese Government Bond Yields Hover Near Year-to-Date Highs

US stocks were trading in the negative territory during the pre-opening session on Wednesday due to poor earnings from major tech firms. The Nasdaq could struggle to rebound today, with Alphabet and Tesla’s deceiving reports affecting market sentiment. Alphabet’s stock dropped 1% after hours because of lower YouTube ad revenue, while Tesla’s stock fell over 4% due to a 45% drop in second-quarter profits and a decline in automotive revenue. Tesla shares continued to fall in premarket trading, and Alphabet’s stock slipped over margin concerns. Despite these issues, the market has recently been trending upward, especially in sectors like small-cap stocks and industrials, due to optimism for a soft economic landing but could see some price corrections overall.

The market now focuses on IBM’s Q2 earnings, expected after the close. Sales are forecasted to rise slightly from $15.48 billion last year, but EPS is projected to drop slightly. IBM has beaten earnings expectations for the past five quarters. If IBM’s earnings exceed expectations, it could help support the technology sector and the broader market. Tha market could also react to the upcoming economic data as investors continue to gauge the next steps in monetary policy. The latter could strongly affect sentiment on top of the earnings releases.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/earnings-from-tesla-and-alphabet-drive-stock-market-volatility/" target="_blank"> London Loves Busines </a>

Following the downturn seen in morning trading on Friday, stocks showed a notable recovery attempt in the latter part of the session. The major averages climbed well off their worst levels of the day but still closed in the red.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 43.76 points or 0.4 percent to 12,284.74 and the S&P 500 dipped 6.54 points or 0.2 percent to 4,124.08, while the Dow edged down just 8.89 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 33,300.62,

While the Dow ended the day just below the unchanged line, the blue chip index still closed lower for the fifth consecutive session.

For the week, the Dow slumped by 1.1 percent and the S&P 500 fell by 0.3 percent, but the Nasdaq climbed by 0.4 percent.

The early downturn on Wall Street came following the release of a report from the University of Michigan showing U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated by much more than anticipated in the month of May.

The report said the consumer sentiment index tumbled to 57.7 in May from 63.5 in April, while economists had expected the index to edge down to 63.0.

With the much bigger than expected decrease, the consumer sentiment index slumped to its lowest level since hitting 56.8 last November.

"*While current incoming macroeconomic data show no sign of recession, consumers' worries about the economy escalated in May alongside the proliferation of negative news about the economy, including the debt crisis standoff,*" said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

She added, "*Throughout the current inflationary episode, consumers have shown resilience under strong labor markets, but their anticipation of a recession will lead them to pull back when signs of weakness emerge.*"

Hsu also said year-ahead inflation expectations receded slightly to 4.5 percent in May after spiking to 4.6 percent in April.

Meanwhile, long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.2 percent in May from 3.0 percent in April, reaching their highest reading since 2011.

Worries about the debt ceiling crisis also continued to hang over the markets, with the postponement of a meeting between President Joe Biden and top lawmakers adding to jitters about a potential default.

"*The discussion between the U.S. president and Congress around the debt ceiling issue could increasingly become a pain point for the stock market as the potential date for a default approaches*," said DHF Capital CEO Bas Kooijman. "*A U.S. default could have a tremendously negative impact on the global economy and on the financial system*."

"*In this regard, some banks have started putting in place contingency plans to face a potential default," he added. "As such, investors could be monitoring the developments around this issue every step of the way in the coming days*."

**Sector News**

Most of the major sectors ended the day showing only modest moves, contributing to the relatively lackluster close by the broader markets.

Airline and banking stocks saw some weakness on the day, while natural gas stocks moved notably higher along with the price of the commodity.

**Other Markets**

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in a mixed performance during trading on Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index advanced by 0.9 percent, while China's Shanghai Composite Index slumped by 1.1 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets all moved to the upside on the day. While the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.3 percent, the French CAC 40 Index and the German DAX Index both climbed by 0.5 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries gave back ground after moving notably higher over the two previous sessions. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, increased 6.6 basis points to 3.463 percent.

**Looking Ahead**

Next week's trading may be impacted by reaction to the latest U.S. economic data, including reports on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and existing home sales.

Earnings news may also attract attention, with retail giants Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD) and Target (TGT) among the companies due to report their quarterly results next week.

Sources: https://www.rttnews.com/3363864/u-s-stocks-stage-late-day-recovery-attempt-but-close-modestly-lower.aspx

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U.S. Stocks Stage Late-Day Recovery Attempt But Close Modestly Lower

Global stock markets ended the week mixed, with the US and Asia down and Europe up, amid investor concerns about economic uncertainties.

Consumer confidence in the US fell to a six-month low, as political wrangling over raising government spending limits has increased recession fears.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two thirds of the US economy, was flat in March, the Commerce Department previously reported. Its reading for April is expected on May 26.

Readings from the consumer and producer prices indices, released this week, indicated that inflation is slowing down. Retail sales and industrial production data are due next week.

Jobless claims, meanwhile, soared to their highest level since October 2021 in another sign the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rates are being felt across the economy — this time in the labour market.

Initial claims last week rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 264,000 in the week ending May 6 — higher than estimations by Reuters and Bloomberg economists.

Investors are also keeping an eye on potential next moves from the Federal Reserve, which last week raised interest rates for the 10th straight time.

The US central bank is getting rates near where it wants them to be to overcome its fight on inflation, Fed governor Philip Jefferson and St Louis Fed president James Bullard said on Friday.

“*Stock markets were recovering to a certain extent after economic data releases showed that inflation figures were moving along estimates,*” Bas Kooijman, chief executive of Luxembourg-based investment management firm DHF Capital, wrote in a note.

“*The figures supported the view that the Federal Reserve could maintain its interest rates at current levels, which could help improve the appetite for risk among investors and support the stock market.*”

They did not, however, give any indication on whether the Fed has reached that point, casting doubt on the Fed pausing rate hikes at its next meeting.

At the close on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 0.1 per cent lower, the S&P 500 declined 0.2 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4 per cent.

In Europe, London's FTSE 100 settled 0.3 per cent higher.

The Bank of England this week raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.5 per cent, taking borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008.

The increase, the 12th consecutive rise, is the central bank’s latest move in its continuing battle with double-digit inflation, which governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged was “too high”.

Frankfurt's DAX and Paris' CAC 40 both closed 0.5 per cent higher.

Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai Composite retreated 1.1 per cent over uncertainty in the Chinese economy.

Momentum is apparently slowing down in the world's second-largest economy with consumer prices rising at their slowest pace in more than two years and new bank loans decelerating.

Imports also posted a surprise decline, triggering a drop in commodity prices.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 climbed 0.9 per cent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.6 per cent.

In commodities, oil prices settled lower on Friday to post their fourth consecutive week of losses as fears of an economic slowdown led to concerns about weakening global crude demand.

Brent declined 1.08 per cent, or $0.81, to $74.17 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate shed 1.17 per cent, or $0.83, to settle at $70.04 a barrel.

Gold, meanwhile, retreated $0.70 to $2,019.80, settling virtually flat.

Demand for gold, used as a hedge against inflation, rose by 18 per cent in 2022 to an 11-year high of 4,741 tonnes, driven by retail investors and central banks shoring up their bullion reserves, the World Gold Council previously reported.

Sources: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/markets/2023/05/13/global-stock-markets-end-mixed-amid-economic-uncertainties/

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Global stock markets end mixed amid economic uncertainties

Earnings from Tesla and Alphabet Drive Stock Market Volatility

Last week, U.S. investors moved towards value and small-cap stocks. The Dow Jones outperformed other indexes, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks by 4.77 percentage points, the largest gap since March 2023. Despite a global computer system disruption, U.S. trading remained unaffected.

Chip stocks saw a sharp decline after the Biden administration considered export curbs on companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding. Major chip companies, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom, and NVIDIA, experienced significant losses.

Political developments also influenced the market. Polls suggesting a Republican sweep in the upcoming elections favored value stocks, expecting lighter banking regulations and higher tariffs under a Republican administration.

Retail sales, excluding gas and auto segments, surged by 0.8% in June, the highest since January 2023. Building permits rose by 3.4%, ending three months of decline. The Federal Reserve reported a 0.6% increase in industrial production, while the Philadelphia Fed’s business conditions gauge reached a three-year high. However, labor market data showed mixed results. Weekly jobless claims increased to 243,000, and continuing claims rose by 20,000 to 1.867 million, the highest since November 2021.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation and the labor market are now in better balance. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fluctuated, initially falling due to easing inflation concerns but spiking later. The municipal bond market absorbed a large primary calendar, while issuance in the investment-grade corporate bond market surpassed expectations. High-yield bonds traded higher amid stronger macroeconomic conditions and anticipated Fed rate cuts.

The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index fell by 2.68% due to rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40, and Italy’s FTSE MIB also saw declines, while the UK’s FTSE 100 Index dropped by 1.18%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its key interest rates at 3.75%, with President Christine Lagarde indicating that the decision for September remains open. Lagarde noted that risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside, and inflation is expected to fluctuate at current levels before declining in the latter half of 2025. The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey revealed an increase in household loan demand for the first time in two years. Industrial production in the euro area fell by 0.6% in May, with significant declines in Germany, Italy, and France.

In the UK, headline annual inflation remained steady at 2% in June, aided by a decline in energy costs. Core inflation stayed at 3.5%, while services inflation was 5.7%. Average earnings, excluding bonuses, grew by 5.7% in the three months to May, down from 6% in April, but still above the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target.

Japan’s stock markets declined, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling by 2.7% and the TOPIX Index by 1.2%. Technology stocks were affected by concerns over tighter U.S. export restrictions to China. Speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also influenced the market. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond fell slightly, and the yen strengthened due to suspected government interventions.

Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in June, slightly below expectations. The overall inflation rate held steady at 2.8%. The government downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025 to 0.9% from 1.3%, citing sluggish domestic consumption and rising import costs.

Chinese equities had mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.37% and the CSI 300 gaining 1.92%, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by 4.79%. China’s GDP grew by 4.7% in the second quarter, below expectations and down from 5.3% in the first quarter. Retail sales growth slowed to 2% in June, and industrial production rose by 5.3%, slightly better than expected but down from May’s 5.6%. Fixed asset investment grew by 3.9% in the first half of the year, while property investment fell by 10.1%. The urban unemployment rate remained steady at 5%, and the youth jobless rate dropped to 13.2%.

The property sector continued to struggle, with new home prices falling by 0.7% in June, extending losses for the 12th consecutive month. Despite a significant property rescue package, the sector remains a major growth headwind, leaving the economy heavily reliant on exports.

Last week, the U.S. market saw a shift towards value and small-cap stocks, while the European and Asian markets faced challenges from trade tensions, economic data fluctuations, and regulatory changes. Despite these issues, key economic indicators provided some positive surprises, though concerns over labor market stability and geopolitical developments remain.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/the-significant-events-in-the-global-economy-over-the-past-week-14/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>


In the latest financial week, the U.S. stock market saw a predominantly positive trend, despite a shortened trading period due to the Presidents’ Day holiday.

Notably, the larger indices such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reached new intraday highs, with the Nasdaq experiencing its most significant daily increase in approximately a year.

This surge was significantly influenced by NVIDIA’s remarkable performance, which saw an unprecedented increase in its market value following the announcement of strong quarterly results that exceeded expectations, coupled with an optimistic full-year outlook driven by high demand for its AI-related chips.

The fixed income arena mirrored this upbeat sentiment, particularly within the high-yield bond market, where a noticeable lack of sellers led to strong demand for new issuances. This was partly fueled by the tech-driven equity rally, highlighting a robust connection between equity performance and bond market dynamics.

On the economic data front, the U.S. reported lower-than-anticipated jobless claims, indicating a persistently tight labor market. Additionally, preliminary PMI figures suggested an unexpected uptick in manufacturing activity, contributing to a cautiously optimistic economic outlook.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks further underscored the need for a careful approach towards interest rate adjustments, emphasizing the importance of sustained inflation progress before considering policy shifts.

Across the Atlantic, the European markets also experienced noteworthy growth, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index reaching a new record high. This was propelled by strong quarterly results from global tech companies, including NVIDIA, which ignited a worldwide rally in technology stocks. Major European indices such as France’s CAC 40, Italy’s FTSE MIB, and Germany’s DAX witnessed significant gains, although the UK’s FTSE 100 showed modest changes due to weaknesses in the mining and energy sectors.

European bond yields saw an uptick as investors adjusted their expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts, influenced by better-than-expected PMI surveys. These surveys hinted at a possible stabilization of the eurozone economy, with a notable recovery in the services sector despite ongoing contractions in some areas.

Germany’s economic contraction in the fourth quarter and a downward revision of its growth forecast highlighted the challenges faced by Europe’s largest economy amid global uncertainties and inflation pressures.

In Asia, Japanese markets stood out with the Nikkei 225 Index hitting a new all-time high, breaking a record set over three decades ago. This milestone was achieved amidst Japan’s steady growth and improving corporate profitability, although the path was not without its challenges, as evidenced by a brief losing streak halted by a rally ahead of a national holiday.

Economic indicators from Japan presented a mixed picture, with strong machinery orders and exports contrasting with a disappointing manufacturing PMI. The Bank of Japan’s optimistic stance on inflation and wages added a layer of confidence, suggesting a possible shift away from prolonged ultra-loose monetary policies in the future.

In China, the equity markets rallied, buoyed by optimistic recovery prospects following an impressive Lunar New Year holiday spending spree.

The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices saw significant gains, reflecting renewed investor confidence. However, the mixed signals from tourism data and cautious consumer spending highlighted the complexities of China’s economic recovery path.

Monetary policy measures by the People’s Bank of China, including a substantial cut to the five-year loan prime rate, aimed to stimulate demand within the property sector, indicating a strategic approach to bolstering economic growth amidst ongoing challenges.

This week’s financial landscape illustrates a global market buoyed by technological innovation, cautious optimism in economic indicators, and strategic policy maneuvers, painting a picture of resilience and adaptability in the face of evolving challenges and opportunities.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/the-significant-events-in-the-global-economy-over-the-past-week/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

The significant events in the global economy over the past week

This article was published on June 10th, 2024.

The U.S. stock markets showcased a complex interplay of dynamics last week, with major indexes delivering mixed results. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite achieved record intraday highs, driven largely by favorable longer-term bond yield movements that enhanced the attractiveness of growth stocks significantly over their value counterparts. In contrast, smaller-cap indexes faced declines, reflecting a more cautious stance among some investors.

Amidst these shifts, the artificial intelligence (AI) sector experienced a cooling off. Noteworthy was the U.S. government's intervention, which included a slowdown in issuing licenses for AI chip exports to the Middle East and the initiation of antitrust investigations targeting the dominance of major players such as Microsoft and NVIDIA. This development hinted at increasing regulatory scrutiny over tech giants, potentially reshaping competitive dynamics within the sector.

The economic indicators throughout the week painted a picture of mixed fortunes. The manufacturing sector continued its contraction, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index falling further below the growth threshold, intensifying concerns around 'stagflation'—a state of slowing economic growth and high inflation. However, the services sector provided a silver lining, registering strong performance and countering fears of a broad economic downturn. This dichotomy was further complicated by the Labor Department's jobs report, which, while showing a significant uptick in job creation, also revealed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate to 4.0%, adding to the mixed economic signals.

European markets responded with optimism to the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to reduce interest rates for the first time in five years. The quarter-point cut brought the deposit rate down to 3.75%, fueling gains across major stock indexes, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index climbing 1.04%. Individual markets in Italy, Germany, and France saw varied but generally positive movements, although the UK’s FTSE 100 experienced a slight decline.

The ECB's cautious stance was apparent in President Christine Lagarde's comments, which avoided committing to a future rate path despite the rate cut. This reflects an ongoing concern about persistent domestic price pressures and elevated wage growth, suggesting that inflation may remain above the ECB's target for an extended period. The central bank's revised inflation forecasts indicate expectations of sustained price level increases, necessitating careful monetary policy adjustments moving forward.

Analysts, including T. Rowe Price’s European economist, speculate that further rate cuts could be on the horizon, depending on upcoming economic data. This potential for additional adjustments suggests a responsive ECB strategy aimed at navigating through uncertain economic waters.

In Japan, stock market performance was uneven, with the Nikkei 225 managing a modest gain while the broader TOPIX index fell. The market's mixed results were influenced by speculation around the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) upcoming policy moves, particularly concerning potential tapering of bond purchases. This speculation reflects a broader shift toward a less accommodative monetary policy in response to global economic recovery trends.

China's stock markets, meanwhile, faced downward pressure despite some positive signals from the property sector. Notable was the increase in new home sales, suggesting some stabilization in a sector that has been a drag on the national economy for several years. However, broader economic indicators provided a mixed view, with manufacturing PMI showing modest expansion and consumer spending remaining weak. This uneven economic recovery highlights the challenges facing policymakers in stimulating domestic demand and sustaining growth.

Overall, the past week in global markets was marked by a blend of cautious optimism and underlying uncertainties. With varying responses to economic data and policy adjustments across different regions and industries, investors and market watchers are keenly observing these developments to gauge the future direction of the global economy.

Source: <a href="https://cumbriatimes.co.uk/article/The-Significant-Events-In-The-Global-Economy-Over-The-Past-Week" target="_blank"> Cumbria Times </a>

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The Significant Events In The Global Economy Over The Past Week

The European Central Bank kept its interest rates unchanged on July 18th as expected as inflation stagnated above the bank’s 2% target. While inflation declined significantly during the second half of last year, it remains stubbornly above the 2.4% mark since November 2023. As a result, the ECB could remain cautious in its decisions in the coming months.

In this regard, the ECB stated that although inflation was in line with expectations, domestic price pressures were still high and inflation could remain above its 2% target well into next year. The bank and the market could thus continue to react to the upcoming economic data and the ECB could continue to make use of its monetary policy tools to enforce its 2% goal. 

**Shifting Direction**

While the ECB aggressively tightened its monetary policy and kept its rates elevated for multiple months, its June meeting opened the way toward a different direction. In response to a slowdown in inflation, the European Central Bank decided to reduce its interest rate during its June meeting, marking a significant policy shift. 

The ECB's decision came at a time when the Eurozone economy continues to see sluggish growth and remains vulnerable to global economic uncertainties. Factors such as fluctuating oil prices, trade tensions, and tariffs could further complicate the ECB’s plans. However, lower interest rates could reduce the burden of existing debt for governments and private entities, potentially spurring more economic growth.

**What Comes Next?**

While markets were expecting the ECB to cut rates two more times this year, sticky inflation could limit expectations for a third cut in December. Policymakers and markets could remain attentive to new data releases. In addition, the decision and approach of the ECB at its next meeting could influence expectations. However, another interest rate cut is still widely anticipated for the September meeting.  

A softer inflation and weaker economic conditions could prompt the ECB to adopt a more dovish position on monetary policy. Such a direction could provide a cushion for the Eurozone economy against ongoing economic headwinds. However, lower interest rates could create risks of reigniting inflation at a time when strong wages and geopolitical constitute inflationary risks. 

**Sustaining the Eurozone Economy**

Lower interest rates are expected to have several positive effects on the Eurozone economy. By reducing the cost of borrowing, the ECB could encourage higher levels of investment and consumption. This, in turn, could boost economic activity and help counteract the current economic weakness. Additionally, lower interest rates can ease the burden of existing debt, providing relief to both governments and private entities.

Global economic factors also play a crucial role in the Eurozone's economic performance. Fluctuations in oil prices, trade tensions, and other external factors can impact the region's economic stability. 

**Is The Fed Following The ECB’s Footsteps?**

The ECB started cutting rates before the Federal Reserve and could continue to do so at a faster pace due to a weaker economy in the Euro area if inflation slows down. As a result, the ECB could have less room to leave rates elevated for long.

In contrast, healthier economic fundamentals and slightly higher inflation in the US could support high interest rates. However, due to its dual mandate, the Fed could remain attentive to the state of the job market. As a result, the Federal Reserve could move less aggressively than the ECB if the job market remains resilient and inflation stays elevated. 

**Interest Rate Cuts Weigh On The Euro**

The ECB's interest rate cuts have significant implications for the euro. If the ECB reduces rates at a faster pace than other central banks, the euro could come under pressure. The currency could lose ground more rapidly against currencies with a stable monetary policy outlook or with potentially increasing rates like the Japanese yen.  

However, a weaker euro might benefit Eurozone exports by making them cheaper on the global market, thus boosting the region's economy. However, this could also lead to higher import costs and potential capital outflows as investors seek higher returns elsewhere.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/markets-look-forward-to-new-interest-rate-cuts-in-the-euro-area/#google_vignette" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

Global stock markets closed with mixed results on Friday as investors braced for next week's interest rate decisions from global central banks.

Wall Street eked out a gain at the end of the trading week following a decline on Thursday, as traders looked forward to monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.

Central banks have continuously raised rates to combat high inflation. However, some analysts, and even former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, believe that the expected rate rise by the US central bank would be its last in this tightening cycle because of easing price pressures.

“*Bonds fell as unemployment claims unexpectedly fell in the US. That strengthened the Fed hawks’ hand on the reasoning that the US jobs market just won’t loosen and challenge the latest expectation where investors and economists, including Mr Bernanke, think that the Fed’s next week rate rise will also be its last*,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, wrote in a note.

“*There is no expectation of another rise in September, while some 20 per cent predict that there could be another rise in November. The rising question is, when will the Fed start cutting rates, in January, or in March? It will depend on inflation, really*.”

US stocks were weighed by a slowdown in technology stocks after Tesla and Netflix reported their second-quarter results.

Tesla, the world's biggest electric car maker, on Wednesday said that it posted a 20 per cent rise in annual net profit and delivered a record number of cars, but chief executive Elon Musk said that vehicle production would slow down during the third quarter because of shutdowns for factory improvements.

Its stock dropped 4.2 per cent after the earnings report, and settled about 1.1 per cent lower on Friday.

Shares of Netflix, the world's largest streaming service, dropped 8.3 per cent in after-hours trading on Wednesday after it reported an annual 3.3 per cent jump in its net profit but fell short of analysts’ sales expectations.

Google parent Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook owner Meta Platforms are all scheduled to report earnings next week.

“*Company earnings could also contribute to the volatility. The market has benefited until now from the surge in interest in AI as well as hopes of a softer monetary policy stance*,” said Bas Kooijman, chief executive and asset manager of DHF Capital.

“*The tech sector is also seeing some mitigated earnings from Tesla and Netflix and could look forward to Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s results next week for potential support*.”

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both inched up by less than 0.1 per cent, with the Dow barely notching its 10th consecutive weekly increase. The S&P 500 has gained in eight out of the last 10 weeks.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, however, slid 0.2 per cent, a day after it posted its biggest loss in four months.

In Europe, London's FTSE 100 settled 0.2 per cent higher and Paris' CAC 40 added 0.7 per cent, while Frankfurt's Dax shed 0.2 per cent.

Earlier, in Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 closed 0.6 per cent lower and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.1 per cent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.8 per cent.

In commodities, oil prices settled higher on Friday and posted a fourth straight weekly gain as falling crude stocks offset demand concerns.

Brent added 1.8 per cent, or $1.43, to close at $81.07 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 1.88 per cent, or $1.42, to settle at $77.07.

Gold, meanwhile, fell about 0.2 per cent, or $4.30, to close at $1,966.60 an ounce.

Source: [The National News](https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/markets/2023/07/22/stock-markets-end-week-mixed-as-investors-brace-for-interest-rate-decisions/)

Stock markets end week mixed as investors brace for interest rate decisions

Bas Kooijman, from DHF Capital S.A., explicates his views on asset allocation in light of escalating interest rates. He puts forth the idea that investors could safeguard their interests by diversifying their portfolio to include physical gold, real estate, and stocks, laying particular emphasis on technology firms and burgeoning sectors like electric vehicle manufacturing and battery production.

Bas establishes the significance of physical gold as a tried-and-tested safeguard against stock market fluctuation. Further, he elucidates on the promising contributions artificial intelligence has to offer in trading, primarily its innate capability of real-time adjustments.

However, Bas also underscores potential challenges AI might entail for regulatory authorities and the necessity of striking equilibrium between human judgment and AI involvement in trading.

Watch the full interview on [ausbiz.com](https://ausbiz.com.au/media/in-the-landscape-of-higher-interest-rates-asset-allocation-takes-centre-stage?videoId=31313)

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In the landscape of higher interest rates, asset allocation takes centre stage

Markets Look Forward to New Interest Rate Cuts in The Euro Area

Read the article on: <a href="https://www.negociosmagazine.com/el-precio-del-oro-alcanza-maximos-historicos-por-que/" target="_blank"> Ejecutiva Magazine </a>

Imparable. Así se puede calificar el rally alcista del oro, que ha llevado a la onza del metal precioso a marcar 8 máximos históricos consecutivos en las últimas 8 jornadas de trading. Este martes, ha avanzado un 0,82%, hasta alcanzar los 2.370 dólares

Bas Kooijman, CEO y gestor en DHF Capital, afirma que "*los precios del oro están aumentando a niveles sin precedentes, respaldados por las compras de los bancos centrales, así como por las preocupaciones geopolíticas y las expectativas sobre la política monetaria*".

Este experto añade que "el impulso alcista se ve sostenido por las expectativas de múltiples recortes de las tasas de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal este año, aunque el optimismo sobre este asunto se ha visto atenuado por los recientes datos sobre inflación y nóminas no agrícolas de Estados Unidos".

"*De cara al futuro*", explica Bas Kooijman, "*los participantes del mercado esperan la publicación de las cifras clave de inflación de Estados Unidos y las actas de la reunión del FOMC del miércoles para evaluar la probabilidad, el momento y la amplitud de las reducciones de las tasas de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal*". En su opinión, "*los datos podrían introducir volatilidad en el mercado de metales preciosos*".

Por otra parte, afirma que "*las compras de los bancos centrales, especialmente por parte de China, siguen siendo un importante factor de apoyo al oro, y otras instituciones de mercados emergentes, como el Banco Central de India, también están aumentando sus reservas del metal amarillo*".

"*A pesar de alcanzar niveles máximos*", concluye Bas Kooijman, "*los precios del oro siguen respaldados por una demanda sólida, como lo demuestra el aumento de las posiciones largas netas*".

"*Sin embargo*", añade que "*tras su fuerte subida, el oro podría quedar expuesto a correcciones de precios a corto plazo, en particular si los datos estadounidenses del miércoles son mejores de lo esperado*".

Source: <a href="https://www.bolsamania.com/noticias/mercados/oro-sigue-imparable-renueva-maximos-historicos-cerca-2400-dolares--16571214.html" target="_blank"> Bolsamania </a>

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(ES) El oro sigue imparable y renueva sus máximos históricos cerca de 2.400 dólares

Atentos a:

Producción industrial UE,PIB; Anuncios de Commerzbank, ABN Amro, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, Thyssenkrupp, Burberry, E.ON, RWE, Imperial Brands, Britvic, Compass Group, Experian

En la apertura:

Las bolsas europeas van camino de un inicio de sesión alcista este miércoles, mientras los inversores se mantienen a la espera de los datos de IPC de EE.UU. que se esperan para luego en la sesión. En horarios de Asia, los selectivos bursátiles han cotizado mixtos; los rendimientos de la deuda del Tesoro se han mantenido planos; el dólar se ha depreciado; mientras que el crudo y el oro se han fortalecido.

PRINCIPALES TITULARES DE LA PRENSA:

La bolsa podría encarar un día "feo" si el IPC de abril sale por encima de este nivel

Un rally ha llevado a la bolsa de vuelta hacia niveles record en mayo tras los recortes del mes anterior, pero son muchos los que piensan que los datos de inflación de abril que se conocerán este miércoles decidirán si se establecen nuevos máximos o nuevas pérdidas.

Tom Essaye, el fundador de Sevens Report Research, analizó los distintos escenarios posibles para el índice de precios al consumo correspondiente al mes de abril.

RENTA VARIABLE:

La renta variable europea se encamina hacia una apertura en terreno positivo este miércoles, con los operadores de mercado digiriendo un informe de inflación en EE.UU., incluso mientras esperan con gran expectación a la publicación de otro, el cual ofrecerá detalles sobre como vienen evolucionando los precios al consumo.

Un informe sobre la inflación mayorista contuvo señales mixtas para los inversores, quienes intentan escudriñar la senda a seguir por la Reserva Federal en su lucha contra la inflación.

El índice de precios a la producción ha subido en más de lo esperado por los economistas en abril, pero los datos de marzo se revisaron a la baja. Tras los datos de precios al consumo del miércoles, los inversores podrían verse forzados a replantearse su optimismo. Una lectura sorprendentemente elevada correspondiente a abril prolongaría la racha de tres informes que han salido por encima de lo esperado.

"Un dato de IPC caliente crearía volatilidad conforme se reducen las expectativas para recortes en los tipos", dicen desde Bel Air Investment Advisors.

DIVISAS:

El dólar ha retrocedido ligeramente a lo largo de la sesión asiática, con el conjunto de riesgos aparentemente sesgado un poco a la baja en el caso de la divisa estadounidense.

Dado el modo en el que los mercados viraron en abril hacia descontar más recortes de tipos de la Fed, desde luego que a los operadores de mercado les gusta posicionarse para una mayor desinflación en EE.UU., dice Maybank.

Los datos de IPC se conocerán más adelante durante la sesión.

Una lectura más débil de lo anticipada este miércoles podría llevar al dólar y a los rendimientos de la deuda del Tesoro a la baja, a la vez que apoyan al euro, dice DHF Capital.

BONOS:

Los rendimientos de la deuda del Tesoro se mantienen planos a la espera de la pequeña caída en la inflación de EE.UU. que se anticipa y con los mercados ateniéndose a sus expectativas para un recorte de tipos en septiembre, a pesar de la presión en contra por parte de algunos funcionarios de la Fed y de algunos analistas.

Los rendimientos de la deuda del Tesoro podrían subir de forma considerable si los datos de inflación dentro del sector servicios de EE.UU. arrojan una aceleración. Ello incluso si la tasa general de inflación sale como se espera, dice la gestora de activos TwentyFour.

"La Fed necesita que la inflación en los precios de la vivienda y dentro del sector servicios, en general, se sumen a la desinflación vista en el sector de bienes para que la tasa general caiga de forma sostenida hacia el objetivo de la Fed", dice.

Source: <a href="https://es.marketscreener.com/cotizacion/divisas/EURO-US-DOLLAR-EUR-USD-4591/noticia/BOLET-N-MATINAL-15-de-mayo-de-2024-46730396/" target="_blank"> MarketScreener </a>

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(ES) BOLETÍN MATINAL : 15 de mayo de 2024

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(ES) El precio del oro alcanza maximos historicos

More than $338bn (£260bn) has been wiped off the value of the world’s richest companies amid fears that Joe Biden will launch a trade war against China...

Subscribe to read more on <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/17/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-inflation-interest-rates-cpi/" target="_blank"> The Telegraph </a>

This article was published on June 12th, 2024.

MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European stocks traded slightly higher as investors awaited Wednesday's two main catalysts: the U.S. consumer price index data and the latest Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.

"Markets are bracing for the Fed to leave rates unchanged but focus on whether policymakers stick to projecting three rate cuts for 2024 or scale back that outlook given sticky inflation," IG said.

"Today is a big day in terms of economic data and Fed announcement-it could determine the global market mood for the rest of the month, and a good part of summer," Swissquote Bank said.

Stocks to Watch

Galp 's decision to sell half its stake in a block located in the recent major oil discovery offshore Namibia will likely garner significant interest from a string of integrated oil majors, Citi said.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures were rising slightly and bond yields saw meagre moves as investors eschewed big bets before the CPI report and the Fed decision.

Stocks to Watch

Oracle announced new artificial-intelligence deals with Google, Microsoft and OpenAI on Tuesday, overshadowing weaker-than-expected quarterly results. Shares rose 9%.

Paramount Global was down 2.3% after Shari Redstone ended discussions to sell her controlling stake to Skydance Media and merge the two companies.

Forex:

The euro has taken a significant hit in the aftermath of the European parliamentary elections and is expected to drop further towards support at $1.07, Swissquote Bank said.

The euro "remains heavily offered" against the dollar and "is preparing to test the $1.07 support to the downside."

The euro could face turbulence against the dollar later in the day, though, when U.S. inflation data are released and the Fed makes its policy announcement.

The dollar could fall if inflation data undershoot expectations and Powell signals interest-rate cuts are on their way, ING said.

The data could show core inflation fell to 0.2% month-on-month in May versus expectations it held at 0.3%, it said.

And the Fed could remove its statement about a lack of progress towards its inflation target. "Powell typically delivers a dovish press conference and the dollar has ended lower on the day over the last four consecutive FOMC meetings."

Bonds:

Inverted yield curves--where longer-dated bond yields trade below their shorter-dated counterparts--isn't a new norm and they should normalize, Pimco said.

"The long end of the yield curve will normalize from the fiscal side, while front-end yields will fall as interest rate cuts will be delivered."

In Europe, risks to the fiscal outlook are increasing, Pimco added. It also said that global yield curves will steepen as central banks cut rates.

Energy:

Oil prices rose on reports of falling U.S. crude oil inventories and on higher global demand views.

Commercial crude stocks are expected to have fallen by 1.2 million barrels last week, according to a Wall Street Journal survey.

The EIA raised its 2024 forecast for global oil consumption growth by around 200,000 barrels a day to 1.1 million barrels a day, while OPEC kept its bullish demand-growth estimates unchanged.

Metals:

Gold futures edged higher, remaining largely rangebound ahead of the U.S. CPI data and the Fed's rate decision.

DHF Capital SA said gold could rebound if core inflation data is weaker than expected, supporting an earlier interest-rate cut.

The metal could also find safe haven support from political events in Europe, with French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call snap elections increasing political uncertainty in France, the eurozone's second-largest economy, DHF Capital added.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia said it isn't too surprising to see iron-ore prices fall back into the $100--$110-a-metric-ton range. It reckons such prices align with trends in Chinese steel demand and output, which have been fairly flat.

Sources: <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202406122332/european-midday-briefing-investors-brace-for-us-inflation-data-fed-decision" target="_blank"> Morningstar </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9j" target="_blank"> Market Screener </a>

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European Midday Briefing: Investors Brace For U.S. Inflation Data, Fed Decision

(Alliance News) - Stock prices in Europe pushed higher on the eve of the Federal Reserve decision, while technology shares in New York rose again as a cooler inflation reading all but ensured US interest rates will not be hiked this week.

Elsewhere among central banks, eyes were also on the Bank of England after red-hot UK jobs data. Governor Andrew Bailey, meanwhile, said inflation will come down, though at a slower pace than expected.

European benchmarks got a boost from mining and luxury retail shares on hopes of China stimulus.

The FTSE 100 index rose 24.09 points, 0.3%, at 7,594.78. The FTSE 250, however, slipped 2.31 points to 19,188.50, though the AIM All-Share added 2.24 points, 0.3%, to 794.72.

The Cboe UK 100 closed up 0.4% at 757.78, the Cboe UK 250 lost 0.1% to 16,714.76, and the Cboe Small Companies rose 0.2% to 13,895.43.

In European equities on Tuesday, the CAC 40 index in Paris added 0.6%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt rose 0.8%.

Stocks in New York were on the up at the time of the European close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5%, the S&P 500 added 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.8%.

"*Despite some remaining concerns, technology stocks were driving the market and could continue to push it to the upside. The sector has been seeing strong earnings, with many companies beating estimates. Oracle reaffirmed this trend on Monday as investors could look forward to future positive results*," DHF Capital analyst Ralph Ratterman commented.

Oracle's stock was 2.1% higher in New York.

Ahead of Tuesday's US inflation data, the debate was whether the Fed would hike or hold on Wednesday. A tamer US inflation reading put a pause by the Federal Reserve beyond all reasonable doubt.

Markets currently see a 94% chance that the US central bank will hold rates steady on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That belief was strengthened after Tuesday's US inflation reading. A day earlier, the likelihood of a pause stood at 79%, according to the tool.

The Fed announces its latest interest rate decision at 1900 BST on Wednesday. A press conference with Chair Jerome Powell follows at 1930 BST.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the US annual inflation rate eased to 4.0% last month, from 4.9% in April. The figure for May came in shy of FXStreet cited consensus, which had predicted an inflation rate of 4.1%.

Core inflation eased and landed in line with expectations, though it remains markedly high, giving something for the hawks to hang onto.

Core yearly inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 5.3% in May, as expected, from 5.5% in April.

"*Core inflation remains uncomfortably high for the Fed,*" analysts at Capital Economics commented.

"*With broader measures showing labour market conditions easing and wage growth slowing, we do anticipate the non-housing core services inflation will slow, but it is still far too high for the Fed’s comfort. With employment growth still robust too, we expect a final 25bp rate hike from the Fed next month*."

The pound was quoted at USD1.2609 at the time of the London equities close on Tuesday, up sharply from USD1.2511 on Monday. The euro stood at USD1.0795, up from USD1.0754. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at JPY140.05, higher compared to JPY139.54.

The Bank of England announces an interest rate decision next week Thursday, but UK data put Threadneedle Street under the spotlight on Tuesday.

With another robust set of UK jobless data earlier on Tuesday, there is every chance the Bank of England is not done with its rate hikes yet.

The UK unemployment rate edged downward in the three months to April, while pay growth picked up.

Unemployment edged down to 3.8% in the three months to April from 3.9% in the three months to March. Market consensus, as cited by FXStreet, had expected unemployment to rise to 4.0%.

In the three months to April, annual growth in average total pay, including bonuses, picked up to 6.5% from 6.1% in the three months to March. This came above market consensus, which expected pay growth to hold steady.

Excluding bonuses, annual average earnings growth was 7.2% in the three months to April, compared to 6.8% in the previous three months. This was above expectations of 6.9% growth.

BoE Governor Bailey, testifying in front of the House of Lords in London, said inflation will come down, but at a slower pace than expected.

The expectation of more rate hikes hurt housebuilding shares. Persimmon was among the worst of the lot, losing 4.2%.

Bellway fell 3.4%. The housebuilder reported a "sustained improvement in sales demand" during the spring selling season, compared with tougher trading conditions in the last three months of the 2022 calendar year.

From February 1 to June 4, Bellway said its overall reservation rate decreased by 25% to an average of 190 per week from 253 per week for the same period a year before. The reservation rate in the whole of first half ended January 31 was 32% lower year-on-year at 138 per week.

Housebuilders may come under pressure as mortgage rates continue to rise, according to a Rightmove tracker.

In the key five-year fixed term mortgages, with an 85% loan-to-value, the rate ticked up to 5.20% on June 13 from 5.02% a week prior. For five-year fixed term mortgages with a 60% loan-to-value, the average rate moved to 4.90% from 4.68%.

A year ago, those mortgage rates stood at 3.08% and 2.77%, respectively.

Mining shares ended higher on the hope of stimulus measures in China. China is a major customer of mining output. Glencore shares rose 4.9%, Antofagasta added 3.5% and Rio Tinto climbed 2.9%.

China is considering a package of stimulus measures to boost growth, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Possible measures include support areas including real estate. More interest rate cuts are also being considered, Bloomberg reported.

Luxury retail in Paris was also supported. LVMH added 1.2% and Kering rose 1.3%. Chinese consumers are major buyers of luxury goods.

Back in London, Harland & Wolff added 9.2%. The infrastructure firm, known for its 81-acre shipyard in Belfast, will team with Macduff Shipyards, Kongsberg Maritime and Echandia to create a UK consortium. The firms will look to develop and build a zero emissions harbour and coastal tug.

"*As part of our ongoing commitment to fully embrace the UK National Shipbuilding Office's aims and in our drive to net zero, we are pleased to have put together this consortium. Not only are these the first vessels of this type to be designed and constructed in the UK, but they also provide firm foundations for the build of various vessels requiring this type of technology in the future. We are delighted by the initial feedback that we have received from potential clients and look forward to seeing these vessels come to life in our shipyards*," H&W Chief Executive John Wood said.

Brent oil was quoted at USD73.98 a barrel late Tuesday in London, up from USD72.71 late Monday. Gold was quoted at USD1,944.33 an ounce, lower against USD1,957.18.

Prior to Wednesday's Fed decision, there is a UK gross domestic product reading at 0700 BST, before eurozone industrial production data at 1000 BST.

In the UK corporate diary, electrical products retailer Marks Electrical and automotive dealer Motorpoint Group release annual results.

Sources: [London South East](https://www.lse.co.uk/news/london-market-close-us-inflation-ebb-china-stimulus-hope-lift-stocks-jijj51ma9wtkkip.html)
[Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1686672131289784900/london-market-close-us-inflation-ebb-china-stimulus-hope-lift-stocks.aspx)
[Shares](https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/stock-markets-buoyed-by-cooler-us-inflation-and-likely-fed-pause)
[shareprices.com](https://shareprices.com/news/london-market-close-us-inflation-ebb-china-stimulus-hope-lift-stocks-jijj51ma9wtkkip/)
[AJ Bell](https://www.ajbell.co.uk/articles/latestnews/261486/london-market-close-us-inflation-ease-sets-stage-fed-pause)

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LONDON MARKET CLOSE: US inflation ebb, China stimulus hope lift stocks

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China trade war fears wipe £260bn off world’s biggest companies

Incoming high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) are projected to invest a staggering $4.4 billion in Dubai property in 2024, representing a remarkable 76 percent increase from the previous year.

This surge in investment underscores Dubai’s growing appeal as a safe haven for the world’s wealthy elite.

Subscribe to read more on <a href="https://www.arabianbusiness.com/money/wealth/uae-millionaires-real-estate-investment-2024-dubai" target="_blank"> Arabian Business </a>



Gold prices slipped in the UAE at the opening of the markets on Monday.

The Dubai Jewellery Group data showed 24K trading at Dh232.75 per gram on Monday morning as compared to last week’s close of Dh233.0 per gram. While 22K, 21K and 18K were trading at Dh215.5, Dh208.5 and Dh178.75 per gram, respectively.

Spot gold was trading at $1,925.89 per ounce at 9.10am UAE time.

Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital, said the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes last week reinforced expectations of higher interest rates which could make gold less appealing in the face of higher yield risk-free assets.

“*The anticipation of future rate hikes and the changing estimates regarding the peak rate could also play a role in undermining gold*,” he said.

Daniel McCarthy, strategist, dailyFX, said the precious metal started the week holding onto the gains seen on Friday when the US dollar dropped.

“*Of potential concern for gold bulls is the run-up in US real yields. The real yield is the nominal yield less the market-priced inflation rate derived from Treasury inflation-protected securities for the same tenor,*” he said.

Sources: [Khaleej Times](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/markets/uae-gold-prices-slip-in-dubai-in-early-trade-on-first-trading-day-of-the-week)

[Mena FN](https://menafn.com/1106576585/Uae-Gold-Prices-Slip-In-Dubai-In-Early-Trade-On-First-Trading-Day-Of-The-Week)

[UAE Times](https://uaetimes.ae/uae-gold-slips-in-early-dubai-session-on-first-session-of-the-week-news/)

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UAE: Gold prices slip in Dubai in early trade on first trading day of the week

Gold prices rose in the UAE on Wednesday morning after dropping one dirham per gram on Tuesday evening.

According to Dubai Jewellery Group data, the 24K opened higher at Dh233.75 per gram on Wednesday as compared to last night’s close of Dh233.25. While 22K, 21K and 18K were trading at Dh216.5, Dh209.5 and Dh179.5 per gram, respectively, at 9 am UAE time.

Spot gold was up 0.32 per cent at $1,931.64 per ounce by 9.40 am UAE time.

Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital, said gold prices recorded some volatility as markets turned to more caution as traders digested the US credit rating downgrade as well as the economic data in Europe and the US.

“*Gold has been on a rebound since the beginning of July but could come under pressure as some uncertainty takes over. The credit rating downgrade has fueled mixed reactions on the market and could push some investors toward safer assets including gold*,” he said.

While concerns about a recession in the US have been declining in particular after the Federal Reserve announced it didn’t forecast one anymore, traders could continue monitoring economic developments in the US as well as the path of US monetary policy, said Kooijman.

“*The time gap until the next monetary policy meeting in the US could leave some room for uncertainty which could impact gold’s performance and could fuel volatility. In this regard, gold could be exposed to the downside if traders’ expectations move toward more interest rate hikes in the near future*,” he added.

Sources: [Khaleej Times](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/markets/uae-gold-prices-recover-in-dubai-after-dropping-dh1-on-tuesday)

[Zawya](https://www.zawya.com/en/markets/commodities/gold-prices-recover-in-dubai-after-dropping-on-tuesday-qq672sk9)

[Write Caliber](https://news.writecaliber.com/financial-markets-united-arab-emirates-gold-prices-recover-in-dubai-after-dropping-on-tuesday/)

[MenaFN](https://menafn.com/1106815759/Uae-Gold-Prices-Recover-In-Dubai-After-Dropping-Dh1-On-Tuesday)

UAE: Gold prices recover in Dubai after dropping Dh1 on Tuesday

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UAE’s HNWI influx to drive $4.4bn in Dubai real estate investments by year’s end

El oro, uno de los activos refugio en etapas de incertidumbre, ha alcanzado este miércoles un nuevo máximo histórico, por encima de los 2.482 dólares por onza, impulsado por las mayores expectativas de rebajas de los tipos de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal de EEUU (Fed). Y puede que no se detenga ahí. 

Según Bas Kooijman, director ejecutivo y administrador de activos de DHF Capital, "la incertidumbre que rodea a las próximas elecciones estadounidenses podría seguir influyendo en la confianza y alimentar la demanda de activos refugio como el oro".

El precio del metal dorado ha tocado los 2.482,42 dólares por onza poco después de las 4:00 horas (2:00 GMT), aunque después ha cedido y a las 9:30 horas (7:30 GMT) rondaba los 2.469 dólares. El oro superó este martes el récord de 2.450,07 dólares que había marcado el pasado 20 de mayo.

Según los analistas, la subida del metal precioso en los últimos días se debe a la mayor confianza de los inversores en que la Fed empiece a bajar los tipos de interés.

El presidente de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, sugirió este lunes que el banco central estadounidense no esperará a que la inflación baje hasta el 2% para recortar los tipos.

Powell indicó también que los datos del segundo trimestre refuerzan la confianza en que la inflación se encamine hacia ese objetivo.

Este factor se une a otros elementos que han sostenido la cotización del oro en lo que va de año, como las tensiones geopolíticas o las compras del este metal por parte de los bancos centrales y de los consumidores chinos.

Source: <a href="https://www.20minutos.es/lainformacion/economia-y-finanzas/precio-oro-maximo-historico-por-que-sube-5532388/" target="_blank"> La Informacion Economica </a>

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(ES) Todo sobre el nuevo precio del oro: toca máximos históricos

Dubai, UAE: Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A., cites that the UAE has become a prime destination for high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), with a record 6,700 millionaires expected to call the UAE home by the end of 2024; if this forecast is met, it will result in the country boasting nearly twice as many HNWIS as the United States’ 3,800 millionaires[1] and Singapore’s 3,500 high-net-worth individuals by the year’s end.

Furthermore, the number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) is expected to rise a further 60% by 2026, positioning Dubai as the city with the highest concentration of wealthy individuals in the Middle East, with a collective net worth exceeding AED 3.7 trillion[2]. This growth is significant relative to the existing number of millionaires in the UAE, which stands at 116,500. In comparison, forecasts predict that Singapore’s UHNWI population will expand by 17.7%, reaching around 5,300 by 2027. This influx is driven by the desire not only to preserve but also to grow their wealth in a favorable and economically booming environment.

The migration of HNWIs and UHNWIs is reflected in Dubai’s thriving luxury real estate market, one of the many avenues for investments that this segment typically pursues to grow their wealth. During the first quarter of 2024, a total of 105 homes priced over $10 million were sold, marking a 19% increase compared to the previous year[3]. Moreover, the forecast for 2024 indicates that these wealthy investors will spend as much as $4.4 billion on Dubai property this year, indicating a staggering 76% increase from 2023[4]. HNWIs and UHNWIs require sophisticated strategies to navigate their unique financial goals, as their higher risk tolerance and access to exclusive investments necessitate a nuanced approach.

Bas commented: “As we see more wealthy individuals seeking to optimize and grow their wealth, they are increasingly drawn to dynamic markets like Dubai. The appetite for investing here is high and will keep growing due to the combination of robust investment opportunities as well as effective wealth management strategies that can significantly enhance their financial success and long-term stability. Seeing as Dubai is home to over 90% of the UAE’s scale-ups, it shows that this city means business; and that makes it the top pick for investment by HNWIs and UHNWIs, alongside the opportunity to harness unrivalled business opportunities and be supported by a diverse talent pool that fuels this economic engine and technology[5].”

HNWIs and UHNWIs must stay prepared to take advantage of many investment opportunities in today’s innovation-driven, tech-centric business environment, from space exploration ventures to technology startups and renewable energy projects. While they require a substantial initial investment, these high-risk, high-reward opportunities have the potential to yield extraordinary returns. For example, the UAE’s investment tech market is set to soar to $313.5 million by 2025, forecasting a 145% growth. By staying prepared, HNWIs and UHNWIs can capitalize on these lucrative investment opportunities to preserve their wealth and achieve substantial long-term gains, ensuring they remain at the helm of market trends.

Bas is facilitating portfolio diversification for several investors, HNWIs and UHNWIs in the country and abroad. Those who have worked with him since his company’s inception four years ago have witnessed a minimum average ROI of 86% and more than 48 consecutive months of positive returns to more than double their initial investment.

Sources: <a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/companies-news/dubai-reinforces-its-position-as-safe-haven-for-hnwis-and-uhnwis-ctex21my" target="_blank"> Zawya </a>

<a href="http://www.propertypost.ae/60756919/dubai-reinforces-its-position-as-safe-haven-for-hnwis-and-uhnwis#/" target="_blank"> Property Post </a>

<a href="https://www.alkhabarkw.com/economy/210.html" target="_blank"> alkhabarkw </a>

<a href="https://uac-org.org/ar/News/details/6517/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%B2%D8%B2-%D9%85%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B0%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D8%A2%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B5%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AB%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%82%D8%A9-" target="_blank"> uac-org </a>

<a href="Bizpreneur" target="_blank"> https://www.bizpreneurme.com/dubai-reinforces-its-position-as-safe-haven-for-hnwis-and-uhnwis/ </a>

<a href="https://in.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2024-07-17:newsml_Zaw4nq6cN:0-pressr-dubai-reinforces-its-position-as-safe-haven-for-hnwis-and-uhnwis/" target="_blank"> TradingView </a>

DHF Capital has developed a broad investment approach, said CEO Bas Kooijman discussing the firm’s strategies and distribution of Luxembourg funds with Delano, adding an office in Dubai and expertise in gold.

DHF started its fund management business, DHF Asset Management, in Hosingen, in the north of Luxembourg in 2020. It moved some of its operations recently to Silversquare, a coworking space in the capital’s Gare district to more easily access the talent pool.

The accounting, auditing and the legal departments are operated in Luxembourg. Its biggest office is in Vilnius, Lithuania, an important back-office centre for Nordic banks, where it hosts its KYC AML, custodian, banking operations.

DHF also has an office Dubai where it maintains its IT department to take advantage of the technology literate Asian expatriates, and another one in the Netherlands as the founders are “*generally Dutch*,” said Kooijman, during an interview on 13 June 2023.

**A balanced return-risk approach**

DHF manages between $60m and $80m in assets in three different funds. The largest fund, DHF Alpha Fund, contains a portfolio of US and European equities, AAA bonds and physical gold. The Alpha fund has had only positive returns for “*almost four years in August,*” said Kooijman, crediting a favourable asset mix.

The strategy of the DHF Gamma Fund is similar to the DHF Alpha Fund but aims at higher returns through higher leverage and exhibits more volatility. The DHF Forex Fund is a currency-only fund targeting corporate clients in the GCC region and is trading in all the major currencies. All DHF funds have a 30-days withdrawal notice period.

DHF uses the S&P500 as the benchmark for all its funds. Kooijman explains that clients tend to focus on their “*three and a half track record*” because, he admits, “*[the benchmark] is not very comparable [to the fund strategies]*.” They distribute their funds largely to Dutch and Belgian clients as well as in the GCC region.

Through its securitisation firm, DHF Capital, the group offers bespoke currency solutions to its clients.

**An expertise in gold**

DHF has been active in the physical gold businesses for the last three to four years. It is sourcing, storing and buying its gold in Dubai. It uses its own in-house algorithmic forecasting models that it has refined over several years to actively trade physical gold and gold ETFs. “*We really believe in the machine plus human knowledge […] we are only getting an alert from our models,*” said Kooijman.

DHF does not use AI technologies for forecasting. “*We would still have the human actually making the decision of entering the trade,*” the CEO said.  

Kooijman explains that gold arrives in Dubai as dust or in small bricks from Africa and transformed into “*investment gold*.” DHF buys that gold and store in a vault with Transguard, a unit of Emirate Group, at the “international side” of the airport.

“*We can ship it can fly it, we can send it to the client, or we can just store it […] or we can very quickly take it back into Dubai,*” said Kooijman.

Source: [Delano News](https://delano.lu/article/luxembourg-asset-manager-dhf-g)

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Luxembourg asset manager DHF goes for gold in Dubai

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Dubai reinforces its position as safe haven for HNWIs and UHNWIs

Gold prices surged to record highs on Wednesday due to increasing expectations of a US interest rate cut in September, following recent statements from Federal Reserve officials. Market participants anticipate a reduction of at least 75 basis points this year. The increasing expectations for a faster and earlier monetary policy easing could continue to support gold toward new highs. Rates are expected to keep declining well into next year and could support the market. 

In this regard, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler cautiously expressed optimism on Tuesday, noting that inflation is heading toward the central bank's 2% target, echoing remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday. 

Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold prices are approaching their previous highs from early 2024, indicating renewed interest among Chinese traders. This trend could further give a boost to gold prices. 

Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US elections could continue to impact sentiment and could fuel demand for safe-haven assets like gold. As elections approach, investors could increasingly turn to gold to hedge against unforeseen results.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/rate-cut-expectations-push-gold-prices-higher/#google_vignette" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

This article was published on December 4th, 2023.

COMEX gold futures stood at US$2,150 per ounce in Asian trading on Monday, continuing to hit a record high; spot gold also soared to US$2,144, refreshing the historical high set in May this year.

Market analysts believe that the biggest driving force behind the current round of gold prices reaching new highs may be bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve; other driving factors include geopolitical factors and super-strong buying by global central banks. Looking forward, analysts believe that gold can still maintain its upward trend next year; even more than gold, the market will usher in a wave of cross-asset gains in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.

Before this surge, gold had been consolidating for three years. This was the third time in three years that it was challenging $2,100 an ounce. A series of recently released U.S. economic data have been weaker than expected, and inflationary pressures have continued to ease, consolidating market expectations that the Federal Reserve has ended its interest rate hike cycle and will begin cutting interest rates next year.

The U.S. ISM manufacturing index in November was 46.7, lower than the expected 47.6, the same as October, and lower than market expectations. The PMI continues to be below 50, the boom-bust line, further increasing the market’s expectations that the current round of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has ended, and may even start cutting interest rates as soon as March 2024, thus supporting the price of gold.

Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne, also said: “The market is betting heavily on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Moreover, gold prices tend to rise when there are early signs of economic recession. This will push gold prices to continue to rise. “

UBS predicts that gold may reach new highs in 2024 and 2025 due to expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and falling real interest rates. UBS believes the Fed will cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2024. If interest rates are suspended in December this year, this will continue to confirm that the Fed is inclined to start cutting interest rates about six months after the last rate increase.

UBS observed the performance of gold after previous interest rate hike cycles by the Federal Reserve and found that gold prices tended to fall by 2% about 3 months after the end of previous interest rate hike cycles; but they would rise by 7% in the next 6 months. %.

In addition, UBS also said that real interest rates are also the main driver of gold prices. Although the degree of correlation between the two changes over time, the asymmetry between them always exists. UBS found that for every 100 basis points drop in the 10-year U.S. bond yield, gold would rise by 11%, but when real interest rates experienced the same increase, gold would only fall by 4.2%. Observing this, UBS believes that when interest rates fall, gold rebounds to a greater extent than when interest rates rise.

Gold’s sensitivity to real yields has declined this year relative to historical levels, but the asymmetry remains, making gold the most attractive alternative outside of bonds. If real interest rates fall over the next year, gold is expected to continue to benefit. UBS also found that when real interest rates are below 1.25% and continue to fall, gold prices will rise even more, even reaching 14%.

In addition, geopolitical factors are also pushing up gold prices in the short term. For example, market concerns about the further spread of tensions in the Middle East have risen rapidly, and the resulting safe-haven buying has provided support for gold prices.

Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital, said that as the market reacts to the escalation in tensions in the Middle East, this escalation “has promoted the continuation of gold’s upward trend over the past two months.” He also said that traders have also been betting that the interest rate hike cycle is over and that interest rates may be cut in the first half of next year, which may continue to support the rise in gold prices in the medium term.

Furthermore, central banks around the world continue to purchase gold, which also supports gold prices. Data released by the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that in the third quarter of 2023, global central banks purchased 337 tons of gold on a net basis, the third highest net purchase amount in a single quarter in history; in the first three quarters of this year, global central bank gold purchase demand increased by 14% year-on-year. %, reaching a record of 800 tons.

UBS said that while these gold flows themselves are unlikely to drive prices higher, they will continue to play a key role in supporting the market and supporting the overall upward gold price trend.

Source: <a href="https://china.postsen.com/trends/44868/Optimistic-about-Fed-interest-rate-cuts-geopolitics-and-central-bank-buying-push-gold-prices-to-record-highs--Anue-Juheng-%E2%80%93-US-Stock-Radar.html" target="_blank"> China Posts English </a>

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Optimistic about Fed interest rate cuts, geopolitics, and central bank buying push gold prices

The US dollar continues its downward trajectory, hitting a multi-week low, influenced by market anticipation of an early Federal Reserve rate cut, possibly in March. This sentiment is reinforced by falling treasury yields which add to the pressure on the dollar. In the upcoming weeks, the dollar could continue to slide as traders monitor new data publications and their impact on monetary policy expectations.

The euro and pound are capitalizing on the dollar's weakness. However, the rapidly deteriorating European economy, with countries like Germany facing recession risks, could compel the ECB to reconsider its current policy in its upcoming meeting. Market expectations are leaning towards an early ECB rate cut, as economic indicators suggest the necessity for such action. In the UK, recent data showing a contracting economy and decreasing inflation might push the BOE toward rate cuts. If inflation continues to decline and economic conditions worsen, the BOE might be prompted to act sooner. 

The Japanese yen is strengthening against the dollar, buoyed by market speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might soon revise its policy stance. The country continues to see inflation consistently surpassing the BOJ's 2% target.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/us-dollar-hits-multi-week-low-amid-rate-cut-expectations/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

US dollar hits multi-week low amid rate cut expectations

Rate cut expectations push gold prices higher

In a July 16th interview, DHF Capital's CEO and Asset Manager, Bas Kooijman explores the current trends in the gold market, driven by uncertainties in the US political landscape and other global factors. He discusses gold's recent high volatility influenced by media, geopolitical tensions, and increasing interest from Asian investors.

Bas highlights the pairing of riskier investments like crypto ETFs with safer assets like gold, leading to significant volatility. He emphasizes the importance of owning physical gold, recommending 5-10% of one’s net worth in gold as a safeguard during global uncertainties.

Looking ahead, Bas predicts a surge in gold prices, potentially reaching over $2500, with possibilities of hitting $2600 to $2700 by year-end.

Sources: <a href="https://ausbiz.com.au/media/the-best-way-to-gain-exposure-to-gold?videoId=36822" target="_blank"> ausbiz TV </a>

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YPWTX0iqS8" target="_blank"> YouTube </a>

Gold prices have been seeing some volatility during the last few trading sessions as some uncertainty affected global investors’ expectations.

While sentiment improved to a certain extent after the resolution of the US debt issue and as Japan saw stronger growth, other factors such as weaker economic data in China and other countries have increased doubts over the direction of the global economy.

Bas Kooijman, Chief Executive Officer at DHF Capital said, “The risks that emerged during the lead-up to the resolution of the debt ceiling issue could leave some investors more cautious regarding their investment choices in the future and could favor gold and other safe assets for some time. However, the averted catastrophe could see investors move to more risky assets which could put pressure on gold prices to a certain extent."

Gold may receive ongoing support: “Over the longer term, gold could continue to see some support in particular if central banks expand their purchases. Central banks could shift part of their reserves toward gold with the dollar coming increasingly under pressure and seeing competition from other assets."

This might not be the case in the short term: “Over the short term, gold prices could continue to see strong volatility with major central banks’ meetings scheduled next week. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are poised to decide on their interest rates while the former is expected to pause its rate hikes and the latter could raise rates."

“In the meantime, traders could remain cautious while gold prices could see some pressure from rising bond yields. Traders could monitor central banks’ rhetoric for any clue on the direction of interest rates and their impact on gold prices", added Bas Kooijman.

Sources: [London Loves Business](https://londonlovesbusiness.com/gold-prices-see-some-volatility-ahead-of-central-banks-meetings/)
[The Market Squawk](https://themarketsquawk.com/blog-details/gold-prices-see-some-volatility-ahead-of-central-banks-meetings-dhf-capital)

Gold prices see some volatility ahead of central banks meetings

Bas Kooijman MSTA, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital, appeared on Ausbiz TV. In the interview he offers insights on the gold market, highlighting three key areas:

Gold Market Dynamics: Gold has struggled to maintain levels exceeding $2,000, despite an initial surge.
AI in Gold Trading: AI is increasingly being used to predict gold price changes.
US Monetary Policy Impact: Fluctuations in the US dollar's stability significantly influence gold price changes.

Watch full interview here: [ausbiz.com](https://ausbiz.com.au/media/how-is-ai-impacting-gold-trading?videoId=33273&sectionId=1885)

Bas Kooijman on Ausbiz TV: How is AI impacting gold trading?

Bas Kooijman on ausbiz TV: Gaining exposure to gold

The US dollar remained relatively steady for the second consecutive day following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The comments were closely followed as traders looked for new information regarding the direction the Federal Reserve might be taking. This affected market sentiment to a certain extent although Powell refrained from giving any clear signals. However, Powell’s cautious optimism concerning inflation could support bets that the Fed could take a softer approach soon. Expectations for a September interest rate cut remain elevated while markets price an additional rate cut this year, bringing the total to three for 2024.

This shift has notably affected Treasury yields which have been under pressure in anticipation of the highly expected rate cuts. Increasing expectations of a softer monetary policy could drive yields lower still. In this regard, 10-year Treasury yields are well below this year’s peak and could move under this month’s lows if economic data supports current market expectations.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of the dollar and Treasury yields will heavily depend on forthcoming US economic data, particularly June’s retail sales figures expected later today. Market consensus anticipates unchanged retail sales for June, compared to a 0.1% increase in April, indicating expectations of a weakened consumer sentiment. Persisting softness in consumer spending may further impact the dollar and Treasury yields in the near term.

Sources: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/dollar-remains-on-a-steady-course-after-powells-remark/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20240716002125:0/" target="_blank"> Trading View </a>

<a href="https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.investorideas.com/news/2024/main/07163Dollar.asp&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTNzI0NzYxMTk2MjYzNzAyNzI4NDIcODdiMThhNjExNWE2MWI2Mzpjb206ZW46VVM6TA&usg=AOvVaw1LmWv-ZpF_dAqe_64ylVNT" target="_blank"> Investor Ideas </a>

The US dollar could come under pressure during the next couple of weeks after the Federal Reserve decided to keep its interest rates unchanged. The decision came as anticipated by the market, however, the central bank revised its forecasts, affecting traders’ expectations over the direction of interest rates. Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital

In this regard, the Federal Reserve could seek higher interest rate levels during the remainder of the year which could support the dollar against other currencies over the medium term if new hikes materialise. As a result, traders could monitor upcoming economic data to determine whether the central bank could raise its rates at its next meeting.

Over the longer term, the US currency could maintain a downtrend in particular as interest rates could be close to their peak. While over the short term, the dollar was recording losses against some major currencies like the euro or the pound and could be exposed to more.

The euro has benefitted from the European Central Bank’s decision to raise its interest rates again. The institution maintained its hawkish rhetoric and could continue to tighten its monetary policy in the future.

The British pound could also maintain its strength against the dollar in particular as traders expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates next week. The bank continues to face elevated inflation in comparison to its major counterparts.

The yen however continued to lose ground while the Bank of Japan maintained its dovish policy.

Source: [European Business Magazine](https://europeanbusinessmagazine.com/business/dollar-at-risk-against-european-currencies/)

[London Loves Business](https://londonlovesbusiness.com/dollar-at-risk-against-european-currencies/)

Dollar at risk against European currencies

The US dollar remained relatively flat during the early European session following a weak performance on Tuesday, attributed to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Despite a robust domestic jobs report, US bond yields declined. Powell’s remarks suggested that the US economy is on a “disinflationary path”, which put the greenback on the defensive. However, Powell reiterated the Fed’s stance on requiring comprehensive data before considering rate cuts, emphasising the central bank’s data-dependent approach. 

The upcoming inflation readings will be crucial in shaping future US interest rate decisions. In May, US core consumer prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, moderating from April’s 0.3% uptick and marking the slowest rise in seven months. If inflationary pressures continue to moderate in June, the dollar could continue to experience limited upside in the near term. 

Market participants are anticipating up to two rate cuts from the Fed this year. This dovish stance could pressure Treasury yields to the downside. Furthermore, the release of the minutes from the Fed's June meeting later today is highly anticipated, as it could provide further insights into the Fed's current policy stance in addition to the PMI data, both of which could impact the US currency and yields.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/the-dollar-stable-despite-powells-dovish-remarks-awaiting-fed-minutes-impact/#google_vignette" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

The dollar stable despite Powell’s dovish remarks awaiting Fed minutes impact

Dollar Steady Course After Powell’s Remark

Australian shares are poised to rise, catching a global melt-up in equities. Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft help power gains in New York, pacing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to record highs.

The S&P 500 was 1 per cent higher to 5633.91 at the close. The Nasdaq Composited added 1.2 per cent to 18,647.58. The Dow rose 1.1 per cent to 39,721.36.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell testified for a second day, reiterating that policymakers do not yet have enough confidence that inflation will continue to ease to pave the way for lower interest rates.

Evercore ISI’s Krisha Guha said Powell second day of testimony offered “little new insight on monetary policy but confirms our view that the key takeaway from his testimony is the Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks is shifting in ways that – if supported and sustained by incoming data starting with Thursday’s CPI inflation report for June – will deliver a rate cut in September”.

“Investors are anticipating two rate reductions this year,” said Erik Boekel, chief commercial officer at DHF Capital. Softer US June CPI data, set for release at 10.30pm Thursday AEST, could solidify expectations for a rate cut in September, he also said.

In a mid-year outlook note, Nikko Asset Management’s chief global strategist Naomi Fink said the firm’s investment committee has an overall positive view with some caveats.

“Earnings may remain healthy for some time, particularly if ongoing investment in technology continues alongside anticipation of future productivity growth. However, caution is warranted as lower-probability risks to growth have the potential to escalate from tail risks to higher probability downside scenarios. These include additional fiscal expansion or trade barriers in the US.”

Nvidia rose 2.7 per cent, Apple 1.9 per cent and Microsoft 1.5 per cent. Apple’s move was linked to a Bloomberg story saying the iPhone maker aims to ship 10 per cent more phones this year than in 2023. Apple’s stock has been on a tear the last month, rising 20 per cent.

In a note, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe argue that tech sector dominance is far from over. “The S&P is now so tech-focused that the future of this single group (writ large) will almost certainly determine the index’s returns over the next two decades.

“The technology sector plus the big tech names in other groups (Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Meta) are now 45 per cent of the S&P 500. It is not a stretch to believe this weighting will eventually be 50 per cent or even greater, especially once we get another tech IPO cycle.”

Colas and Rabe also said the Nasdaq Composite has risen 80 per cent since December 28th, 2022 and yet it continues to underperform its average recovery off its four prior cycle lows.

Stocks in focus

ANZ probes ‘$54b’ in inflated bond trades The bank overstated the value of government bonds it traded by over $50 billion in a year, boosting its chances of winning lucrative mandates to issue Commonwealth debts.

The mining stocks fundies think may outrun BHP and Rio The rout in the ASX’s largest mining companies this year has created a “screaming” buy for some of the sector’s biggest investors.

Macquarie says it’s time to buy real estate stocks before rate cuts The broker has warned that the “best” phases for ASX returns is behind us and is urging investors to buy more defensive companies amid signs that returns are starting to falter.

Anzac Day shopping ban restricts choice, retailers say Retail trade will be banned on Anzac Day in NSW, giving the state some of the nation’s most restrictive rules in a move to counter “creeping commercialism”.

Market highlights

1. ASX futures up 72 points or 0.9% to 7872 near 6.45am AEST
2. AUD +0.1% to 67.47 US cents
3. Bitcoin -0.8% to $US57,401 at 6.52am AEST
4. On Wall St at 4pm: Dow +1.1% S&P +1% Nasdaq +1.2%
5. In New York: BHP +0.3% Rio +0.8% Atlassian -2%
6. Tesla +0.4% Microsoft +1.5% Apple +1.9% Nvidia +2.7%
7. Alphabet +1.2% Amazon +0.2% Meta +0.9%
8. Micron +4% AMD +3.9% Arm +2.3% Crowdstrike -3%
9. VIX +2.7% QQQ +1% TLT +0.3%
10. Stoxx 50 +1.1% FTSE +0.7% DAX +0.9% CAC +0.9%
11. Spot gold +0.3% to $US2371.23/oz at 2.18pm in New York
12. Brent crude +0.5% to $US85.09 a barrel
13. Iron ore -3.8% to $US105.30 a tonne
14. 10-year yield: US 4.28% Australia 4.34% Germany 2.53%
15. US prices as of 4.43pm in New York

Today’s agenda

Local data: NZ June monthly food prices

Overseas data: June CPI for Germany and the UK at 4pm; US June CPI and weekly jobless claims at 10.30pm

United States

In a second day of Congressional testimony, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said he was not yet ready to declare inflation had been beaten.

Powell and other Fed officials have said they will not cut interest rates until they have gained even greater confidence that inflation is headed back to the central bank’s 2 per cent target after a breakout surge during the pandemic.

“I do have some confidence of that,” Powell said when asked directly during a House Financial Services Committee hearing if he felt that bar to cutting interest rates had been cleared, but “I am not ready to say that yet”.

Powell said he felt the US was still heading towards a so-called soft landing where the Fed’s inflation target is met without a punishing rise in the unemployment rate - an achievement many thought impossible when inflation in 2022 hit a 40-year-high and the Fed responded with a rapid tightening of borrowing costs.

“There is a path to getting back to full price stability while keeping the unemployment rate low,” Powell said. “We’re on it. We’re very focused on staying on that path.”

Other top stories

Shipping crises ‘spanner in works’ for inflation fight Australian consumers and retailers are facing long delays and higher prices for goods from Europe and Asia amid an international shipping crisis that could stoke local inflation.

1. Chinese exporters raise fears of Christmas freight crisis
2. Retailers have bigger worries than possible interest rate rise
3. Why Michele Bullock’s next rate call will be one of the toughest

Australia’s ‘Xennials’ earn 67pc more than their parents Australians have an easier time moving up the income ladder than workers in Scandinavia, the US, France and the UK, and new research shows two-thirds of people in their 40s earn more than their parents at the same age.

Australia will have 400,000 new millionaires by 2028. Are you one of them? Buoyed by property and super, Australians have become the second-richest people in the world, on paper at least.

Source: <a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-rally-nvidia-helps-pace-megacap-advance-20240711-p5jsor" target="_blank"> Financial Review </a>

The US stock market could see some volatility and could remain under some pressure with attention turning again toward monetary policy.

The expectations of higher interest rates as expressed by the Federal Reserve could continue to constitute a source of risks for the market over the medium term.

While the technology sector has been providing strong support to the market with AI boosting investors’ expectations, the US-China tensions could dampen this trend.

Ralph Ratterman, Board Member and Asset Manager at DHF Capital S.A said, “New restrictions could potentially impact a broad range of technology companies, leaving the market without what was until now a strong positive catalyst. Investors could monitor the release of Micron’s earnings later today as well. The move could also hamper Chinese companies’ ability to develop AI technology. The US banking sector could also see some volatility this week with investors expecting the Federal Reserve to release its bank stress tests results after market close today. Banks have been seeing increased scrutiny since the collapse of smaller US banks collapsed earlier this year. Traders could monitor new economic data releases during the remainder of the week. US GDP figures as well as initial jobless claims and pending home sales are expected on Thursday. On Friday, the publication of inflation data could cause some volatility while attention remains on monetary policy and the next steps of the Federal Reserve.”

Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A. added, “The tensions between the US and China could become an increasingly strong risk factor for the semiconductors and technology-centered industries and the market as a whole by extension. However, chip makers and cloud-computing providers could continue to see strong demand in the US and the rest of the world thanks to the inroads of AI in everyday life.”

Source: [London Loves Business](https://londonlovesbusiness.com/us-stock-market-under-pressure-with-a-warning-that-chip-makers-are-at-risk/)

US stock market under pressure with a warning that chip makers are at risk

US stocks could be exposed to some volatility and price corrections after the continuous gains of the last few months in particular as traders could become more cautious before the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week and could move to secure their gains.

Company earnings could also contribute to the volatility. The market has benefited until now from the surge in interest in AI as well as hopes of a softer monetary policy stance.

In this regard, the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates potentially for the last time if inflation continues to move toward the central bank’s goal.

Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital said, “However, traders could remain attentive to the comments of the Federal Reserve’s president.

“If a more stable outlook for interest rates is confirmed, the stock market could record a stronger performance. This could come in addition to reduced concerns about a potential recession. However, commercial real estate continues to be a source of concern as financing costs rose and could remain elevated for some time. In addition, remote work trends have reduced the need for offices and could continue to weigh on the sector over the longer term. In the meantime, traders could continue to monitor company earnings. Strong earnings from large banks have helped alleviate some concerns about the solidity of the financial sector although regional banks continue to be under some pressure and could remain under scrutiny. The tech sector is also seeing some mitigated earnings from Tesla and Netflix and could look forward to Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s results next week for potential support.”

Sources: [Daily Mirror](https://www.dailymirrornewstoday.com/us-stocks-at-risk-after-strong-gains-london-business-news-londonlovesbusiness-com/) 

[London Loves Business](https://londonlovesbusiness.com/us-stocks-at-risk-after-strong-gains/)

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US stocks at risk after strong gains

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ASX to rally, S&P 500 closes above 5600 points

Te Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have emerged as magnets
for foreign direct investment (FDI), experiencing a notable surge in
capital inflows across various sectors. Tis phenomenon underscores the
region's attractiveness as a hub for global business and investment, driven
by several compelling factors that have positioned the GCC as a pivotal
player in the global economy.

**1) Economic stability and diversification initiatives**

One of the primary reasons for the increasing FDI in the GCC is the
region's robust economic stability and diversification efforts. Traditionally
reliant on oil revenues, GCC nations have embarked on ambitious
economic diversification programmes aimed at reducing dependence on
hydrocarbons and fostering a more sustainable economic landscape.
Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have implemented
comprehensive economic reforms, including privatisation initiatives,
infrastructure development projects, and regulatory reforms, which have
significantly enhanced the business environment and attracted foreign
investors seeking stable and profitable opportunities.
Renoy Kundukulam, CEO of wealth management company Finmark
Captial, said that one of the main reasons for foreign investors’ massive
attraction in the GCC is the diversified investment hubs.

"They [GCC] have attracted FDIs
into sectors such as
infrastructure, warehousing and
logistics, travel and tourism, IT
(data centres), telecom infrastructure, and
renewable energy,’’ - Renoy Kundukulam.

"This shift has been driven by long-term strategic plans like Kuwait Vision
2035, Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, and
the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33). Additionally, the region's political
stability has bolstered investor confidence in the long-term prospects of
these nations."

It’s not just the initiative of diversification that attracts foreign investors,
it’s the ease and smoothness that businesses operate with in the GCC.
Tristan Brandt, managing director, Digital Technology Services of Alvarez
and Marsal, discussed this point saying:

"These transformation
programmes are addressing
investor concerns with respect
to ownership control,
transparency, and rule of law,’’ - Tristan Brandt

"Consequently, the GCC is seen as an outlier in current global economic
environment where opportunity and returns appear more favourable. As a
result, capital inflows are improving across a range of sectors and are
expected to continue this trend."

**2) Strategic geographic location**

The strategic geographic location of the GCC
countries has also played a pivotal role in
attracting FDI. Anuj Goel, senior executive officer,
of asset and wealth management company,
Century Private Wealth, said, “Due to the GCC
countries' favourable geographical position
between the junction of Europe, Asia, and Africa,
it is more attractive as a global trade and logistics
hub.”

The well-developed infrastructure, including state-of-the-art airports,
seaports, and logistics networks, further enhances the region's appeal as a
logistics and distribution hub. Tis strategic advantage has not only
facilitated easier access to regional markets but also positioned the GCC
as an attractive destination for companies looking to expand their global
footprint.

**3) Investment-friendly policies and incentives**

Governments across the GCC have implemented investor-friendly policies
and incentives to encourage FDI. Tese include tax incentives, reduced
bureaucratic hurdles, streamlined business registration processes, and
enhanced protection of intellectual property rights.

Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of asset management company
DHF Capital S.A discussed an important point when asked about what
kind of investment-friendly policies the region is adopting. 

"It has also been actively
reforming and implementing
policies to encourage foreign
investment. For example, the
need to have a 51 per cent local
shareholder has been gradually removed
for most businesses, and in most GCC
countries,’’ - Bas Kooijman.

"This has elevated the appeal of investing in the region as direct
ownership has now become possible. Many high net worth (HNW)
investors and VC [venture capital] funds have accordingly been flocking
to the GCC to capitalise on this development. In fact, as it relates to the
UAE, the country is on pace to welcome nearly twice as many HNW
investors as the United States and this will likely have a direct correlation
to a further uptick in regional investment."

Te establishment of special economic zones and free trade zones has
provided foreign investors with additional benefits, such as full ownership
rights and exemption from import and export duties. Such measures have
created a conducive environment for business growth and innovation,
making the GCC a preferred destination for both multinational
corporations and small to medium-sized enterprises seeking to capitalise
on emerging market opportunities.

**4) Diverse investment opportunities**

Te GCC offers a diverse range of investment opportunities across various
sectors, including real estate, hospitality, finance, healthcare, renewable
energy, and technology. Te rapid urbanisation and population growth in
the region have fueled demand for infrastructure development,
residential housing, and commercial projects, attracting significant
investments from global real estate developers and construction firms.

James Dervin, managing director of global management company Alvarez
and Marsal in the Middle East, and co-head in the region talked about the
various industries that are accessible for investment in the GCC.

Fundamentally, investors
outside of the GCC can see the
scale of the opportunities that
the GCC presents. There are
large pools of capital that have been raised
in developed, mature and extremely
competitive markets looking for a home,
and the GCC seems to be becoming
increasingly attractive,’’ - James Dervin.

"Outsized opportunities across multiple sectors and industries,
developing corporate and legislative landscapes, increasing ease of doing
business, potentially favourable taxation arrangements (i.e. subject to
efficient structuring and investors’ circumstances) and also the potential
to form extremely valuable strategic relationships with local partners all
seem to be contributing to foreign investors’ desire to play in GCC
markets."

Moreover, the burgeoning healthcare sector in countries like the UAE and
Saudi Arabia has attracted investments in hospitals, medical facilities,
and pharmaceutical companies aiming to cater to the growing healthcare
needs of the population.

Goel also raised an interesting point that gives the GCC an advantage for
FDI inflows. He said, “Te opening of closed sectors, previously off-limits
to foreign ownership, is gradually expanding the investable universe
within the region. Te countries have created a thriving startup
environment, most notably in urban centres such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi,
and Riyadh, which is creating an inflow of venture capital and driving
innovation.

“Deeper collaborations between GCC sovereign investment funds and
foreign companies are causing knowledge transfer and new avenues for
investment. Environmental sustainability and green technologies is a
distinct niche that GCC countries are focusing on, creating associated
opportunities in renewable energy.”

**5) Growing consumer market and rising income levels**

Te GCC boasts a young and affluent population with rising disposable
incomes, which has contributed to the region's emergence as a lucrative
consumer market. Te increasing consumer spending on luxury goods,
entertainment, and leisure activities has attracted international retailers,
hospitality chains, and entertainment companies seeking to capitalise on
the region's affluent clientele. Moreover, the growing popularity of ecommerce platforms and digital services has further fueled investments
in technology and digital infrastructure to cater to evolving consumer
preferences and behaviours.

Dr Pallavi Kishore, head of accounting and finance at Middlesex
University Dubai spoke about how the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are
the top attractions among investors. He said, “Whilst 2022 saw a global
decline in FDI, mainly attributed to overlapping geopolitical and socioeconomic crises, the fact that the UAE has become – and remains – one of the world's most stable investment destinations cannot be overlooked.

Te UAE recorded its highest FDI inflow at US$22.7 billion (Dh83 billion),
being a 10 per cent increase from the previous year and surpassing all
other countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

"According to the Kearney FDI Confidence Index [an annual survey of
global business executives that ranks markets that are likely to attract the
most investment], the GCC countries, including the United Arab
Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, emerge as the most attractive
destinations for investors. China, India, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar,
Tailand, and Saudi Arabia make up the top six positions, and they are the
only emerging markets included in the world rankings. In emerging
markets, UAE and Qatar scored the highest optimism ranking as investors
continue to prioritise transparency of government regulations, tech
capabilities, and tax rates in making investment decisions.”

Vijay Valecha Chief Investment Officer of
investment services company Century Financial
shared some statistics and percentages showing
why the GCC is attractive to foreign investors. He
said “Greenfield FDI projects drive economic
growth in the recipient country by adding jobs
and transferring technology & knowledge. While
global FDI fell by 2 per cent to $1.3 trillion (Dh4.7
trillion) in 2023, driven by the economic slowdown and ongoing
geopolitical tension. UAE pulled remarkable FDI inflows."

In 2022, UAE ranked 19th globally in terms of FDI inflows and held on to
aims of being one of the top 10 countries globally attracting FDI. Today,
according to the World Investment Report 2024, UAE came in right after
US securing itself the second place globally in greenfield FDI project
announcements in 2023. During 2023, the country announced 1,323 greenfield FDI projects in comparison to United States’s 2,152. For
perspective, United Kingdom stands at 1,184, India at 1,058 and Germany
at 1,036.

In terms of FDI inflows in 2023, UAE pulled in $30.68 billion (Dh112
billion) compared to $22.73 (Dh83 billion) billion in 2022, a 35per cent
year on year growth and a 72 per cent growth from 2019’s FDI inflow of
about $17.87 billion (Dh65.6 billion). UAE’s FDI inflow stock grew to $2.2
trillion (Dh8 trillion) in 2023 from $1.5 trillion (Dh5.5 trillion) in 2019, a
47 per cent growth in 5 years. Now, the UAE targets to attract an
impressive $150 billion (Dh550 billion) in FDI by 2031, suggesting a
massive 388 per cent jump from 2023’s base. (Source: Bloomberg)”

Te GCC's increasing attractiveness to foreign investors can be attributed
to a combination of factors, including economic stability, diversification
efforts, strategic geographic location, investment-friendly policies,
diverse opportunities across sectors, growing consumer market, and
regional stability. As the GCC continues to implement ambitious
economic reforms and capitalise on its inherent strengths, it is poised to
sustain its growth trajectory and solidify its position as a leading
destination for foreign direct investment in the global arena.

Source: <a href="https://gulfnews.com/business/markets/boom-in-the-gulf-five-reasons-why-the-gcc-is-a-magnet-for-foreign-investment-1.1720432666613" target="_blank"> Gulf News </a>

The panorama of private wealth across the Middle East, Africa and South Asia is vast—$8 trillion, according to data from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). The wealth management sector may be roaring, yet banks in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are in a distant second place when servicing the burgeoning market. Global wealth managers are racing to seal their dominance, armed with a technological advantage over their GCC counterparts, amid the rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI).

But some analysts speculate that tech disruption offers an opportunity for GCC banks. Dubai alone is home to 55,000 high net worth individuals (HNWIs) and over half a trillion dollars of wealth, says Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, a multifamily office. The DIFC noted in April that the number of wealth and asset management firms registered at the center exceeded 300. Recent investment managers at the DIFC include wealth heavyweights Edmond de Rothschild and Nomura Singapore.

Historically GCC banks have been unable to compete with what global banks offer. Local wealth preferred private banks that could provide better services in safe and secure locations such as Switzerland or the Channel Islands. Bhaskar Dasgupta, nonexecutive director, GCC, Israel and India Boards at Apex Group, says: “Traditional GCC banks had a rather static view of the private banking market, with basic services ranging from custody, lending and pushing standard funds to basic concierge services.”

It is also about the perception of global banks and the comfort levels of HNWIs. “*The strong reputation, global presence and experience of these banks contribute to their preference*,” says Bas Kooijman, CEO of Luxembourg-based securitization company DHF Capital. “*Local banks just do not have the same visibility*.”

**AI Raises the Stakes**

Generative AI may provide GCC banks a lever that could transform the region’s wealth management sector, Schulman believes: “*Regional banks can leverage AI to offer sophisticated digital platforms and tools to enhance and tailor client services and experiences.” That transformation will depend on the agility of GCC banks. “Generative AI brings everyone up to a much higher playing field and democratizes business and creative processes*,” Schulman says. “*The big and slow will fall back or die, and the quick and nimble will achieve substantial gains.*” GCC banks also stand to gain from the increasing need to integrate Islamic finance principles into the HNWI portfolios.

However, Dasgupta warns that AI is in its infancy, and claims there is more investment in the development of AI than in its deployment. “*Some wealth management firms, from robo-advisers to private banks and external asset managers, are implementing elements of generative AI, genetic algorithms [and] neural networks to come up with a better presentation of investment opportunities, identification of customer risk profiles and how they evolve*,” he says.

The authors of a report published by Celent last year predicted that the Middle East and Africa will see the fastest growth in IT investment, growing at an annual average rate of 5.4% to 2027. Cybersecurity is becoming a critical concern for HNWIs, but it is one area where GCC banks stand out. Ratings agency S&P Global noted in 2022 that strong capital buffers—a characteristic of most GCC banks—support cyber-resiliency. A surge of local interest in alternative investments such as cryptocurrencies also offers new opportunities.

Yet, the question remains whether GCC banks can adjust to the changes sweeping through wealth management. The precedent is not encouraging, according to Dasgupta. He adds that local banks were not quick enough to respond to earlier adjustments that included revisions to environmental, social and governance requirements; taxation; and new legal structures such as foundations.

Incorporating AI will require a significant rethink for everyone. But Middle East wealth managers should not merely add AI to current practices, Schulman says, but begin from a more naïve standpoint and relinquish some control to see if workflow and organizational charts can be recreated. “*This should be easier for smaller regional firms than for global behemoths*,” he says.

Nonetheless, the contest for HNWI clients will likely be fierce. Last year, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa were among the few growth areas. According to Capgemini’s current wealth management report, HNWI  financial growth in the Middle East grew 1.5%, while North America’s and Europe’s HNWI financial growth contracted 7.4% and 3.2%, respectively.

**A Fertile Environment**

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered an influx of Russians bringing substantial amounts of cash into the region, notably to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE is now considered a safe haven by Russians and others, including Indians, who are together driving a red-hot real estate market.

These trends have implications for regional wealth management portfolios. Global bodies such as the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force expressed concerns, notably about the UAE and the capacity of local financial institutions to minimize know-your-customer risk.

GCC banks will also need to improve the productivity of relationship managers, an industrywide issue. Typically, relationship managers spend two-thirds of their time on noncore activities that do not generate revenue, Capgemini claims.

Yet talent is a challenge industrywide. Difficulty in retaining expertise might limit GCC banks’ capacity to reimagine wealth management, Dasgupta adds: “*[GCC banks do not] have the talent pool—which is very rare and mobile—to appeal to the new wealth*.” In the rivalry among global wealth managers, talent could be a defining issue, Running Point’s Schulman predicts: “*At the end of the day, high-touch wealth management will continue to need a tailored blend of top people and top technology*.”

Still, government support for the sector is strong. DHF Capital’s Kooijman argues that investment in infrastructure, tech, and talent by the banks could lead to high-quality wealth management services and build upon state-backed aspirations. “*Regulatory initiatives and government efforts are also enhancing the transparency and attractiveness of the local banking sector*,” he notes.

Last year the DIFC, which aims to double its size and contribution to Dubai’s GDP by 2030, launched the first global family business and private wealth center and forecasts that $1 trillion in assets will be transferred to the next generation in the Middle East during the next decade.

That may be an issue. According to Swiss wealth manager UBS’ 2023 Global Family Office Report, many family offices do not have the requisite processes, governance or risk management policies. That finding is particularly prevalent in the smaller family offices, managing assets from $100 million to $250 million.

Their apparent dearth of expertise and experience comes at a time when family offices are on the brink of the biggest shifts in asset allocation in several years, lifting allocations to hedge funds and adding to developed market fixed income and emerging markets equities. That is being driven by the perception that the US dollar has reached a peak and by the reopening of the Chinese economy, the Swiss bank predicts.

Family businesses are a major component of many economies in the GCC. With some imagination, GCC banks could leverage their experience of handling the day-to-day business of major family firms into the wealth management business, still with concerns regarding servicing, a quantum leap for many family offices.

Nevertheless, there are discernible changes afoot in regional banking, amid a growing recognition that private banking and wealth management may have been neglected. According to the Apex Group’s Dasgupta, GCC banks are now responding, with almost every bank reviewing its private banking strategies, implementing new technologies and recruiting, as well as upgrading the skills of its bankers. But will they be able to deliver? An $8 trillion opportunity hinges on the outcome.

Source: [Global Finance](https://www.gfmag.com/magazine/july-august-2023/gcc-supplement-2023-gulf-wealth-management-private-banking)

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GCC: Wealth Management Boom

Muscat: The IPO boom in the GCC is expected to continue in 2023 and is expected to draw more investments than in 2022, which exceeded $20 billion, according to an industry expert.

The initial public offering (IPO) market in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) saw a very good year in 2022, in particular in comparison to other regions, which recorded a dearth of listings and a pessimistic sentiment overall as doubts over global economic growth accumulated and interest rates rose, Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital, said in an exclusive interview with the Times of Oman.

“The GCC benefited from governmental support and strong energy prices and the markets in the region saw some big IPOs and are expected to maintain this trend for 2023,” he added.

Elaborating about OQ subsidiary Abraj Energy's listing on the Muscat Securities Exchange (MSX) Bas said that the announcement of Abraj’s IPO has spurred interest in the Omani stock market, which is benefitting from the surge of investments that came from listings in neighbouring countries during 2022. “The IPO could also fuel a positive sentiment for the market as a whole and help push local stock prices to the upside. MSX could see a better year in 2023,” he further added.

Speaking about the IPO market in the GCC during the year Bas said, “Overall, the sentiment has been trending up with China reopening its economy and the US potentially decreasing the pace of interest rate hikes.”

This could further push companies in the GCC to speed up their IPO projects to tap the improving risk appetite among investors, he said.

“However, the extent of this boom could be exposed to changes in monetary policy, economic growth and investors’ appetite for risk,” he further added.

Bas said that 2022 saw a number of large IPOs, chief among them, DEWA, which raised $6.1 billion on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM). Other large IPOs in the UAE included Borouge, Salik and Empower. Saudi Arabia also saw a large IPO in Luberef.

Dubai is constantly finding innovative ways of incentivising business development and healthy growth, which leads to more companies achieving IPO eligibility, and 2023 could outperform last year's trends because of this, Bas said to Times of Oman. “The Saudi stock exchange has already announced that a large number of IPOs are in the works. In Dubai, Salik and Empower entered the emirate's stock market and we could see other government-owned organisations enter the market as well,” he added.

Bas said that it remains unclear which companies would be next in the IPO pipeline. “However, we could see some large government-owned companies in the UAE and Saudi Arabia opening their capital to investors, to break last year's trend. In the UAE, four free zone companies could list on the stock market,” he added.

Stock market investors face a number of risk factors including inflation, interest rates, the global economic slowdown and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In this regard, the US monetary policy remains a critical factor due to its large impact on sentiment, stock prices and global economic activity. As such, the main challenge for investors would be to target the companies most likely to thrive under current market conditions.

Source: https://timesofoman.com/article/126684-ipo-boom-in-gcc-expected-to-continue-in-2023


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IPO boom in GCC expected to continue in 2023

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Boom in the Gulf: Five reasons why the GCC is a magnet for foreign investment

As we start a new week, let's take a look at the significant events in the global economy over the past week with our weekly financial update, presented by Bas Kooijman, the CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital SA.

The S&P 500 Index continued to reach new highs last week, driven primarily by a narrow range of advancing stocks. Growth shares, as measured by the Russell 1000 indexes, outperformed value stocks by 4.15 percentage points. Despite this upward trend, small- and mid-cap benchmarks saw losses. The Nasdaq Composite surged, now 73.71% above its lowest point since mid-2022, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 32.79% in the same period.

The market's upward trajectory is partly fueled by expectations of lower interest rates, influenced by signs of slowing growth and easing inflation pressures. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a decline in manufacturing activity, with a reading of 48.5, signaling contraction. Additionally, there was a surprise contraction in construction activity.

The services sector also experienced a sharp downturn. The ISM’s gauge of services activity dropped from 53.8 in May to 48.8 in June. Despite this, S&P Global's rival survey indicated continued expansion. Mixed signals from the labor market added to the economic uncertainty. The JOLTS report showed an increase in job openings to 8.14 million in May, but ADP reported a decline in private sector job growth from 160,000 in May to 150,000 in June.

Blerina Uruçi, Chief U.S. Economist, noted a loosening labor market, with job openings and hiring returning to pre-pandemic levels. The official jobs report showed a slowdown in job growth, with June job gains at 206,000, a slight decrease from May. Government job increases and health care employment helped offset private sector hiring weakness. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, and annual wage inflation fell to 3.9%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments at a European banking conference suggested inflation may not hit the Fed’s 2.0% target until 2025 or 2026, but acknowledged progress in reducing inflation. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields declined over the week, reflecting these economic developments.

European markets experienced a positive week, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index rising by 1.01%. Political tensions eased as the far-right failed to secure a majority in France’s legislative elections, while the Labour Party in the UK won the general election with a significant majority. Major stock indexes across Europe saw gains: France’s CAC 40 Index rose by 2.62%, Germany’s DAX by 1.32%, Italy’s FTSE MIB by 2.51%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 by 0.49%.

In the UK, Labour’s victory ended 14 years of Conservative rule, with Rachel Reeves set to become the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won the largest share of votes in the first round of the parliamentary election, but did not secure a majority.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde struck a slightly hawkish tone at the ECB’s annual retreat, emphasizing ongoing inflation uncertainties. Minutes from the ECB’s June meeting revealed some opposition to the rate cut due to higher-than-expected wage growth and persistent inflation.

Eurozone inflation data showed a year-over-year decrease to 2.5% in June, though services inflation remained high, supporting the ECB’s cautious approach. Germany reported weaker-than-expected manufacturing activity, with orders falling by 1.6% and industrial production contracting by 2.5%. France also saw a decline in industrial output, down by 2.1%.

In Asia, Japan’s stock markets performed strongly. The Nikkei 225 Index climbed by 3.36%, and the broader TOPIX Index advanced by 2.65%, both reaching all-time highs. This growth was partly driven by a weakening yen, which benefits export-focused industries. However, the yen did strengthen later in the week. Japan’s 10-year sovereign bond yields hit their highest level since 2011 before easing.

Japan's biggest union group reported a significant wage increase of 5.1%, the largest in over 30 years, though this was slightly below initial estimates. Consumer spending in Japan unexpectedly contracted in May, with household spending down 1.8% year over year. Weak yen and rising prices contributed to this decline.

Japan's GDP for the first quarter was revised lower, showing a 2.9% annual contraction, worse than the initial estimate of 1.8%. This was due to corrections in construction orders, and the GDP estimates for the fourth and third quarters of 2023 were also revised downward.

In China, equities fell due to disappointing manufacturing data, which heightened concerns about economic slowdown. The Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300 both posted losses, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.46% during the holiday-shortened week. China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.5, indicating contraction for the second consecutive month, while the nonmanufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.5.

The Caixin/S&P Global survey showed a slight improvement in manufacturing activity but a slowdown in services. The mixed PMI readings reflect ongoing challenges in China's economy, including a property slump and rising trade tensions. New home sales by top developers fell by 17% in June, though this was an improvement from May's 34% decline, offering a glimmer of hope for the housing market following the government's recent rescue package.

In sumary, the U.S. stock market rose on expectations of lower interest rates. European markets gained due to political stability and cautious optimism from the ECB. In Asia, Japan's markets hit all-time highs with support from wage increases and a weaker yen, while China faced challenges with weak manufacturing data and a continued property slump.

Sources: <a href="https://www.investorideas.com/news/2024/main/07085significant-Events-Past-Week.asp" target="_blank"> Investorideas.com </a>

<a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/the-significant-events-in-the-global-economy-over-the-past-week-13/#google_vignette" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

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"The June US labour market report painted a picture of a labour market that continues to gradually loosen, and normalise, with headline nonfarm payrolls growth moderating to a marginally better-than-forecast +206k, as unemployment unexpectedly ticked higher to 4.1%, albeit on a firming in participation to 62.6%, making this less of a concern than it otherwise would be. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings growth cooled a touch to 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations, and 3.9% YoY, also in line with expectations. The net -111k revision to the prior 2 months of data also supports the normalisation theme.

"That said, on the whole, the policy implications of the today's data are likely to be relatively limited, particularly with the inflation side of the FOMC's dual mandate continuing to take precedence. Obtaining greater 'confidence' in a return towards the 2% target remains the primary condition that must be met before a cut is delivered, though 'unexpected' labour market softness may elicit a policy response in advance of this. I continue to pencil in September for the first 25bp cut to be delivered.

In any case, there remains a clear desire among FOMC members to deliver a cut, likely sooner rather than later, hence the 'Fed put' remains forceful, and flexible, in nature. This should, in turn, continue to support risk assets, with the path of least resistance for equities continuing to point to the upside, leaving dips remaining shallow, albeit with stocks now needing to navigate the looming risk of earnings season, kicking off next Friday."

Source: <a href="https://www.investorideas.com/news/2024/main/07053US-Labour-Market.asp" target="_blank"> Investorideas.com </a>

The US dollar opened the week with a flat performance, maintaining the trend of the last three sessions, while expectations of early interest rate cuts continue to decline. Strong US economic data affected sentiment, with retail sales and job market figures coming up stronger than expected. Federal Reserve officials have also confirmed their hawkish outlook, indicating that the Fed might not be ready for an early rate cut. Traders could turn to the release of new economic data this week which could impact expectations and the trajectory of the dollar.

The Euro could see a limited performance this week as traders look forward to the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged which could help support the euro to a certain extent.

The British Pound continued to trade in a range, stagnating for several weeks. While a stronger rebound in inflation could support the potential for the Bank of England to keep interest rates at high levels, traders could monitor new economic data ahead of the central bank’s meeting.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/us-dollar-opened-the-week-with-a-flat-performance/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

US dollar opened the week with a flat performance

SRI is not merely a trend, it's a transformative shift in how individuals view wealth creation and its impact on

In today’s corporate world, accountability has taken centre stage. This encompasses a range of issues, from ethical considerations to adherence to sustainable mandates like the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs); as we collectively work towards a greener future, companies are being held accountable to stay agile, adapt to the evolving needs of the modern business landscape, and align with ever-changing societal standards.

The finance world has seen an uptick in Socially Responsible Investing (SRI). SRI, otherwise known as “impact investing”, is on the rise; the Global Impact Investing Market was valued at $496.12 billion in 2023, and it is anticipated to grow with a CAGR of 12.2% through 2029 to reach a value of $989.28 billion ahead of the new decade. This shift is reflected by a growing desire among investors to align their values with their portfolios—and its effects on financial markets are more tangible than ever.

What’s causing this shift?

The traditional paradigm of investing solely for financial returns has quickly dissipated. From automotive manufacturers like Tesla to technology behemoths like Apple and apparel powerhouses like Nike, companies across all industries are urged to consider their operations’ broader impact on social and environmental issues.

Why? Because investors have created a market where SRI guides their decisions. For instance, in the UAE, objectives such as the Dubai 2040 Urban Masterplan are mapping out the road to a more sustainable future; savvy investors are investing in companies that contribute to these goals as they understand their financial success is rooted in the longevity of companies—and companies can only have longevity if they abide by the current and future standards of the world.

Debunking the myth of money over morals

Contrary to misconceptions, SRI does not compromise returns. Studies indicate that companies with substantial environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices often outperform their competition. According to Gartner, sustainability metrics in investment plans will be standard for CFOs by 2026. An anticipated 60% of public companies will incorporate sustainability metrics as a pivotal component of their ROI analysis; it is forecasted that 30% of total debt capital markets funding will be funnelled towards ESG initiatives by this year.

Therefore, incorporating SRI principles into portfolios can lead to sustainable, long-term gains while promoting positive change. In the new world being nurtured, social investments for profit generate competitive financial returns while positively impacting society and the environment. This enables investors to play a key role in addressing global challenges such as climate change, inequality, and ethical governance.

Addressing ethical concerns

Speaking of ethical governance, one challenge often associated with SRI is the fear of compromising returns for ethics. However, as the SRI landscape evolves, diverse investment opportunities catering to various ethical preferences emerge. Investors can now choose from multiple SRI options, from renewable energy projects to companies committed to fair labour practices.

As the world strives to achieve zero emission targets, companies are falling in line to abide by these futurist standards proposed to create a more inhabitable world for future residents. Over 8,000 companies and countries representing 90% of the global GDP have committed to reaching net zero by 2050. Accordingly, SRI is emerging as a preferred investment option today. As an investor, determining which ventures to put your hard-earned money into can be tricky – but as the environment becomes an increasingly important factor of consideration, there is a solution.

Influencing corporate behaviour

By carefully examining and analysing companies that adopt ESG alongside more traditional financial measures, investors can ensure that their SRI pursuits involve choosing or disqualifying investments based on specific ethical criteria. By following this “ESG Blueprint,” investors can influence corporate behaviour as the demand for transparency, moral practices and sustainability is enhanced.

These factors provide a comprehensive framework for assessing a company’s impact on the planet, society, and its internal governance. Thus, companies must align with these values to attract investment, creating a positive feedback loop that encourages businesses to adopt responsible practices while nurturing investor empowerment. Essentially, by incorporating ESG criteria, investors can make more informed choices that align with their values.

The bottom line

SRI is not merely a trend, it’s a transformative shift in how individuals view wealth creation and its impact on the world. As investors increasingly recognise the potential for both financial returns and positive societal change, SRI is likely to play a crucial role in shaping the future of finance. By aligning values with investment choices, investors can contribute to a more sustainable, equitable, and responsible global economy.

Furthermore, with the world continually evolving and harnessing the power of technology and innovation, investors or potential investors may find navigating the ever-changing finance landscape daunting. In such cases, seeking the guidance of a qualified financial advisor can help steer you in the right direction, enabling you to invest with confidence, hold companies accountable, and play an integral role in shaping the future of our world.

Source: <a href="https://www.financemiddleeast.com/how-value-based-investing-is-shaping-a-sustainable-future/" target="_blank"> Finance Middle East </a>

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How value-based investing is shaping a sustainable future

US labour market continues to gradually loosen

Stocks opened lower on Wednesday following concerns of new trade restrictions to China, while traders awaited to hear Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speak.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 120 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 was down 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was declining 0.3%.

Big tech stocks were falling following a report that the White House is considering new restrictions on exports to China of chips for artificial intelligence. Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) stock dropped 3.1%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was down 1.7% and Applied Materials (AMAT) fell 2.7%.

“*While the technology sector has been providing strong support to the market with AI boosting investors’ expectations, the US-China tensions could dampen this trend*,” Ralph Ratterman, asset manager at DHF Capital S.A., wrote Wednesday.

Jerome Powell is set to speak with central bankers from around the globe Wednesday. Traders will be listening to see if he shares any new updates on the future of monetary policy and inflation.

Source: [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-062823/card/stocks-open-lower-ahead-of-powell-remarks-OGcdmhxER5iftQceRwGE)

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Stocks Open Lower Ahead of Powell Remarks

Gold futures settled lower on Thursday, a day after posting its largest daily percentage gain since the end of July. Prices for the precious metal "*remained under pressure with traders' attention turning toward the Federal Reserve*," said Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday morning "*could create significant price movements as investors look for additional clues regarding the direction of monetary policy*." December gold fell $1, or nearly 0.1%, to settle at $1,947.10 an ounce on Comex.

Sources: [Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230824497/gold-futures-finish-with-a-loss-ahead-of-powells-speech-on-friday)

[Market Watch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-finish-with-a-loss-ahead-of-powells-speech-on-friday-829f002b)

[London Loves Business](https://londonlovesbusiness.com/gold-under-pressure-ahead-of-fed-speech/)

[Head Topics](https://headtopics.com/us/gold-futures-finish-with-a-loss-ahead-of-powell-s-speech-on-friday-42791045)

[Sweet Crude](https://sweetcrudereports.com/gold-under-pressure-ahead-of-fed-speech/)

[EWF PRO](https://www.ewfpro.com/index.php/en/commodity/131-precious-metal-energy/precious-metals/market-update-gold/79462-gold-futures-finish-with-a-loss-ahead-of-powell-s-speech-on-friday)

[SG Insight](https://www.sg-insight.com/index.php/en/commodity/131-precious-metal-energy/precious-metals/market-update-gold/75074-gold-futures-finish-with-a-loss-ahead-of-powell-s-speech-on-friday)

[KP Press](https://www.kp-press.com/index.php/en/commodity/131-precious-metal-energy/precious-metals/market-update-gold/75037-gold-futures-finish-with-a-loss-ahead-of-powell-s-speech-on-friday)

[RFB News](https://www.rfbnews.com/index.php/en/2013-11-24-17-19-08/131-precious-metal-energy/precious-metals/market-update-gold/79989-gold-futures-finish-with-a-loss-ahead-of-powell-s-speech-on-friday)

[BPF News](https://www.bpfnews.com/index.php/en/commodity/131-precious-metal-energy/precious-metals/market-update-gold/79833-gold-futures-finish-with-a-loss-ahead-of-powell-s-speech-on-friday)

Gold futures finish with a loss ahead of Powell's speech on Friday

Effective stewardship of one’s assets can lead to long-term stability and growth. However, successful investing in the modern marketplace remains an impressive accomplishment. Not only is there a complex and global economic environment, but there are always storms to weather. Emerging from those storms to seize growth opportunities is critical, but you must be able to recognize those opportunities.

By Philippe Schneider, Global Head of Sales, DHF Capital

Traditionally, human financial advisors have played a key role in helping investors navigate the complexities of financial markets. With technological advancements, robo-advisors have rapidly emerged as an alternative, using algorithms to manage investments. This article will explore and compare the fundamental characteristics of robo advisors v financial advisors, providing an overview of their respective features and how they fit into the modern investment landscape.

**What is a Robo-Advisor?**

A robo-advisor is a digital, automated replacement for the human financial advisor. Advanced algorithms designed with market forces and different investment dynamics in mind provide a platform for a more hands-off approach to investing.

Robo-advisors typically build investment profiles for individuals based on initial or periodic questionnaires. These questionnaires explore the investors’ goals, their appetite for risk, and other factors. Using that information, the robo-advisor algorithm engages in automated portfolio management. This process may include selecting investments, rebalancing the portfolio, and many other actions a financial advisor might take on your behalf.

Today, robo-advisors comprise a significant market segment. By 2023, their market was estimated to be worth more than $7 billion. Today’s largest robo-advisory firms manage hundreds of billions of dollars in assets. Their popularity makes them a significant force in the industry. Consider what’s driving the widespread adoption of these tools among investors.

**Why Would Someone Choose a Robo-Advisor?**

Robo-advisors have a widespread reputation for offering investors a more flexible entry point. Most automated advisors don’t have high minimum asset requirements to start investing. Likewise, the costs and fees associated with robo-advisors are often much lower than those associated with working with a professional. Getting started is simple; even novice investors can build a portfolio with a robo-advisor. For those who don’t have the time to monitor the market or keep up on their investments frequently, robo-advisors offer a reasonable hands-off solution.

With robo-advisors, investors can turn most of the management of their portfolio assets over to the computer. As algorithms continue to improve and systems become more capable of ingesting and analyzing vast volumes of data, robo-advisors may also advance and respond to market conditions. Still, robo-advisors have inherent drawbacks that may make them less suitable for experienced investors or high-net-worth individuals.

**Where Robots Might Fall Short**

While robo-advisors offer an excellent entry path for beginning and intermediate investors, they may not be the most suitable choice for all investors. Individuals with complex investing requirements or an extensive portfolio of assets to manage may find that robo-advisors aren’t as flexible as they require. Investors with a high net worth or a substantial amount to invest often have more personal needs and goals. Current robo-advisors can’t consider these goals at the same level as a human advisor. They can’t offer tailored advice for your goals and personal financial situation. Likewise, they aren’t adept at structuring very complicated portfolios.

Perhaps most concerning to more active investors is that robo-advisors may come up short when the market enters a period of high volatility. With so much more noise in the data, algorithms may not be able to respond accurately or quickly to rapidly shifting conditions.

**Robo Advisor v Financial Advisor: The Place of Traditional Services**

Before the advent of modern robo-advisors, human professionals were the primary source of insight into investment strategies. Today, expert financial advisors continue to play a significant role, particularly for those with specific goals or higher net worths. Human advisors offer personalized insight and guidance, allowing for a more tailored approach to portfolio management.

While robo-advisors provide a level of automation and efficiency, they may not quickly adapt strategies or respond to specific immediate requirements. In contrast, personal financial advisors can work closely with clients to set clear guidelines for investment management and can make rapid adjustments during volatile periods. The human touch in investing offers a more personalized approach that may be particularly valuable in times of uncertainty.

Some individuals are drawn to robo-advisors due to certain limitations associated with traditional financial advisors. Human advisors often charge higher fees compared to their automated counterparts. Additionally, many advisory firms require a minimum asset threshold, which could be tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars. For high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), these firms provide experience and guidance tailored to navigating the complexities of current and future markets.

**Is There a Best of Both Worlds?**

There are advantages and disadvantages to relying solely on either robo-advisors or human financial advisors. Increasingly, many firms are offering hybrid robo-advisors, which combine automated portfolio management with access to human advisors. This combination may help in developing a diverse approach to investment management.

As technology continues to evolve, so do robo-advisors. The integration of AI and the ability to analyze large datasets could lead to advanced generations of robo-advisors. These future platforms might leverage extensive historical market data to enhance their functionality. Despite these technological advancements, human insight and creativity remain significant in the realm of investment management.

**Forging the Path That’s Right for Your Portfolio**

Effectively managing your assets and exploring different investment opportunities can be important steps for your future. Today, robo-advisors provide convenience and time-saving solutions, though they may not offer personalized advice or complex financial planning. For beginners and those with limited capital, robo-advisors can be a great starting point. Personalized financial advice remains highly valuable for individuals with higher net worth, bigger goals, or more specific needs. As technology continues to evolve, relying more on automation tools might become beneficial. However, it’s essential to consider your goals and carefully evaluate each strategy before making decisions on using a robo advisor v financial advisor.

Source: <a href="https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/learn/what-is-a-robo-advisor/" target="_blank"> The Armchair Trader </a>

The country’s growing investment for creating job opportunities across several domains is the appealing factor that is attracting the young talent into investments

More and more Gen Z and millennial investors in the UAE are showing a preference for robo-advisors amid the positive outlook for the country’s economy, a market expert said.

The country’s growing investment for creating job opportunities across several domains is the appealing factor that is attracting the young talent into investments, Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A., said.

The UAE’s GDP is forecasted to grow by 4.2 percent this year and 5.2 percent in 2025, after achieving an estimated more than 3 percent growth in 2023.

**UAE led the charge in job creation across the Gulf region during Q1 2024**

Kooijman’s comments come amid projections about the number of users in the UAE’s robo-advisors market reaching over 23 million by 2028.

He said according to recent findings, approximately 66 percent of international investors under age 30 now lean towards digital platforms.

Recently released data showed that UAE led the charge in job creation across the Gulf region during Q1 2024, with an 8 percent rise in new jobs compared to last quarter of 2023.

Kooijman said a 103 percent jump in new investor accounts opened on the Dubai Financial Market was registered over the first three months of this year, further cementing the country’s position as an attractive investment destination.

“*As the GCC continues to diversify via digital transformation and sustainable development, the UAE’s job market will play a key role in attracting younger demographics, particularly Gen Z and millenials who are exhibiting great interest in technology*,” he said.

“*While the integration of AI and machine learning technologies has further expedited this transition, tech-savvy millennials also prefer digital platforms for financial services due to cost and convenience*,” he said.

Source: <a href="https://www.arabianbusiness.com/industries/technology/uaes-robo-advisors-market-projected-to-see-quantum-jump-as-gen-z-millennials-take-to-investments-in-a-big-way#:~:text=More%20and%20more%20Gen%20Z,economy%2C%20a%20market%20expert%20said." target="_blank"> Arabian Business </a>

UAE’s robo-advisors market projected to see quantum jump as Gen Z, millennials take to investments in a big way

Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A., cites that assets under management (AUM) in the robo-advisors market in Europe are projected to reach approximately $794.40 billion in 2023 and show a compound annual growth rate (CAGR 2023-2027) of 12.80% to result in a projected total amount of about $1.29 trillion by 2027. With this forecasted growth on the horizon, Kooijman shares insights on why the future of wealth management will rely heavily on robo-advisors.

Employing mathematical algorithms to provide sound financial advice, robo-advisors have become increasingly sought out in Europe with 61.70 million market users expected by 2027. This impending uptick in investors who seek to leverage the power of algorithms to grow their investments can be attributed to several factors including lower fees and a higher return on investment (ROI) than that of human advisors or the traditional banking system with most robo-advisors charging roughly just 0.25% per year.

The launch of Chat GPT, which registered five million new users on the day it was released, is also contributing to this investment market renaissance. More people are realizing the advantageous use cases of AI across all industries. This world-revolutionizing technology is witnessing increased adoption and implementation across Europe while the nation simultaneously strives to boost research and industrial capacity but also safeguard citizens’ fundamental rights.

Furthermore, data shows that if Europe on average develops and diffuses AI according to its current assets and digital position relative to the world, it could add some $2.92 trillion, or 20%, to its combined economic output by 2030.

Sources: https://europeanbusinessmagazine.com/business/aum-in-europes-robo-advisors-market-to-reach-1-29-trillion-by-2027/
https://londonlovestech.com/aum-in-europes-robo-advisors-market-to-reach-1-29-trillion-by-2027/

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AUM in Europe’s Robo-Advisors Market to Reach $1.29 Trillion by 2027

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Robo Advisor v Financial Advisor: Which is Best?

This article was published on June 28th, 2024.

El yen está en una auténtica encrucijada. No solo por la depreciación sin freno que está experimentando frente al dólar estadounidense (el cruce ha tocado esta semana mínimos de 38 años), sino también porque los próximos datos macro que se van a conocer tanto en Japón como en EEUU podrían ser determinantes para su evolución. En vistas de lo que pase, las autoridades niponas pueden actuar en uno u otro sentido. El dilema al que se enfrentan, en cualquier caso, es considerable, y es que tienen que tener cuidado si quieren estabilizar al yen sin dañar la economía.

Japón confirma la primera intervención en el mercado de divisas desde 2022
Por lo pronto, este viernes la divisa japonesa se enfrenta a una nueva prueba de fuego con la publicación, por un lado, de los datos de inflación en Japón, y por otro, de los datos del PCE deflactor en EEUU, que es la medida de inflación favorita de la Reserva Federal (Fed) y en la que basa sus decisiones sobre los tipos de interés.

Pero, ¿por qué son tan importantes estos datos? Los expertos lo explican. Por ejemplo, Bas Kooijman, director general y gestor de activos de DHF Capital, comenta que las cifras estadounidenses "podrían influir aún más en las perspectivas de tipos", es decir, determinar si la Fed empieza a relajar su política monetaria ya en septiembre, como descuenta el mercado, o espera aún más y mantiene los tipos más altos durante más tiempo.

Se espera que el PCE básico aumente hasta el 2,6% interanual, por debajo de la lectura actual del 2,7%. "Si el PCE revela resultados mejores de lo esperado, el yen podría enfrentar una mayor presión a la baja frente al dólar", comenta, pero también dice que "una inflación japonesa mayor de lo esperado podría fortalecer los rendimientos y respaldar al yen".

James Harte, de Tickmill Group, también se refiere a esta cuestión. Según señala, la lectura del PCE básico de EEUU "será clave para el par", es decir, para el cruce yen/dólar. "Si vemos una sorpresa a la baja, esto debería aumentar las expectativas de relajación monetaria en septiembre, lo que haría caer al dólar", comenta.

Y si hay un movimiento significativo a la baja en el dólar, esto "podría ayudar a aliviar la necesidad de intervención" de las autoridades japonesas en el mercado cambiario. Sin embargo, apunta, "si los datos superan las previsiones, diluyendo las posibilidades de flexibilización en septiembre en EEUU e impulsando al dólar al alza, esto podría ser la gota que colma el vaso y provocar una nueva intervención" de Japón como la que se produjo en mayo.

Precisamente, la sombra de una nueva intervención monetaria lleva días cerniéndose sobre el país nipón. Harte también hace referencia a este asunto: "La cuestión más importante para el Banco de Japón (BoJ, por sus siglas en inglés) es cómo hacer subir el yen de manera sostenible, dado que las intervenciones anteriores e incluso una subida récord de tipos no han ayudado" a la divisa.

Aunque no es el único. Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo, analista de mercado en xs.com, apunta que "a medida que el yen sigue perdiendo terreno, la posibilidad de una intervención gubernamental de Japón se vuelve cada vez más plausible". Y su colega Rania Gule, que también es analista de mercado en xs.com, se expresa en términos similares al afirmar que "los inversores se mantienen cautelosos, esperando una posible intervención del gobierno japonés para sostener el yen".

Sobre todo, remarca, al calor de las últimas declaraciones del viceministro japonés de Finanzas, Masato Kanda, que ha dicho que el gobierno está dispuesto a tomar medidas contra las fluctuaciones monetarias excesivas que perjudican a la economía nipona. Y el ministro de Finanzas japonés, Shunichi Suzuki, también ha dicho que el país está "profundamente preocupado por el impacto del tipo de cambio en la economía" y que el gobierno tomará "las medidas necesarias" ante estas oscilaciones indeseables de la divisa.

OTRAS OPCIONES

No obstante, esa no es la única opción que tienen las autoridades de Japón para intentar salvaguardar la estabilidad del yen. En este sentido, Harte señala que los operadores del mercado esperan que el banco central japonés anuncie una reducción en las compras de bonos en julio, aunque en su opinión "los riesgos ahora se inclinan hacia una nueva subida de tipos, lo que debería provocar cierta fortaleza en el yen a corto plazo".

Di Giacomo también comenta las otras posibles medidas que tiene sobre la mesa el BoJ. "En respuesta a esta crisis monetaria, el Banco de Japón está considerando un cambio significativo en su política. En su próxima reunión de julio se espera que adopte una postura más agresiva, que podría incluir un aumento de las tasas de interés".

Como dice el analista, "esta sería una medida audaz destinada a estabilizar el yen, controlar la inflación y reducir la dependencia de compras masivas de bonos". Y recuerda que, de hecho, el gobernador del BoJ, Kazuo Ueda, ya ha insinuado la posibilidad de un recorte sustancial en las compras de bonos, lo que podría indicar un cambio en la dirección de la política monetaria del país.

"Este enfoque más agresivo del BoJ también busca equilibrar la necesidad de estabilidad económica para evitar perturbaciones en los mercados financieros", añade Di Giacomo, que cree que la cita de julio "será crucial, ya que se esperan más detalles sobre cómo planea el banco central nipón manejar esta delicada situación".

En sus propias palabras, la apreciación del dólar y la consiguiente depreciación del yen han hecho que Japón se encuentre en una "encrucijada económica". Y es que, remarca, "el Banco de Japón enfrenta el desafío de estabilizar su moneda sin desestabilizar su economía", lo que en última instancia "determinará el futuro del yen en los mercados globales".

Source: <a href="https://www.bolsamania.com/noticias/divisas/encrucijada-yen-dilema-japon-opciones-estabilizar-moneda--17002517.html" target="_blank"> Bolsamania </a>

(ES) Encrucijada para el yen y dilema para Japón: ¿qué opciones hay para estabilizar la divisa?

Stocks:

European stocks were higher on Monday as traders awaited key central bank decisions this week.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, so investors will be keen to hear if Jerome Powell gives any clues about Fed trajectory in coming months.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England is also expected to stand pat on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan on Tuesday has the potential to rattle markets should it make comments on relaxing its yield curve control policy.

Stocks to Watch

NatWest's lowered capital return expectations and earnings-downgrades limit its re-rating, Jefferies said, double-downgrading its rating on the stock to underperform from buy and slashing its target price by 59% to 150 pence.

"New guidance around risk-weighted asset inflation suggests the market's capital return expectations for NWG are too high and will have to be reconsidered."

Setbacks from capital returns will have a greater bearing on multiples than those of net interest margin earnings-downgrades, it said, following the bank's update on Friday that saw shares tanking.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures were rising after declines last week dropped the S&P 500 into correction territory.

Wall Street has a lot to contend with this week: the Fed rate decision, the monthly U.S. jobs report, and more corporate earnings with the highlight being Apple's quarterly numbers.

Stocks to Watch

Former Marvel executive Isaac "Ike" Perlmutter has entrusted his stake in Disney to Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management as it prepares to press the entertainment company for multiple board seats, WSJ reported. Disney shares were up 0.5%.

The United Auto Workers union announced late Saturday that workers would go on strike at another General Motors plant hours after the union announced it had reached a tentative agreement with Jeep maker Stellantis. GM shares rose 0.8%.

Forex:

The dollar should continue to hover close to multi-month highs, although it would be vulnerable to any slide in U.S. bond yields, DHF Capital said.

"Overall, the dollar index stayed near this year's high [for most of this month] and could continue to see strength."

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields dropped with the 10-year German Bund yield moving further below the 3% mark.

"Taken by itself, we think this suggests certain fatigue tendencies of the bond-negative momentum," LBBW said.

Moreover, the macro side provided price-supporting impetus for the euro bond market, LBBW said, referring to the last set of purchasing managers' indices. "Hopes of a positive economic turnaround have thus been severely dampened."

UniCredit Research said a break of the 10-year German Bund yield below 2.75%, the peak reached in March 2023, would help the long end to further recover towards the 2.50% area.

"This would require tame data in the eurozone, and today's release of 3Q German GDP and German inflation could be a first test in this respect."

More importantly, the release of eurozone inflation for October, due Tuesday, could provide further tailwind to bonds, albeit investors might prefer to stay on the sidelines until the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, UniCredit Research added.

Energy:

Oil prices moved lower in early trading, despite Israel stepping up its campaign in Gaza via land and aerial bombardment over the weekend.

Markets for now are seemingly thinking the conflict in Gaza will remain isolated, however ANZ said that any spillover into the wider region could threaten supply.

"The escalation of the war raises the risk around supply disruptions that have been hanging over the market since Hamas's attack," it said, adding that "up to 20 million barrels a day of oil is at risk either directly and through obstructed logistic if other Middle East oil producers become involved."

Metals:

Base metals and gold prices were rising as investors awaited key policy decisions from several central banks this week.

This is a big macro week, Peak Trading Research said, with the Fed decision due Wednesday and U.S. employment data due Thursday.

Peak said the Fed is likely to hold rates steady, but more importantly will be what the Fed says in its comments after regarding data and geopolitical risks.

Strong data would likely mean a strong dollar, it added.

EMEA HEADLINES

Germany's Economy Contracted Less than Expected in 3Q

The German economy contracted a little less than expected in the third quarter of 2023, driven by lower household consumption, and revisions to previous quarters meant the economy avoided a recession previously reported last winter.

Germany's gross domestic product shrank 0.1% from July to September compared with the previous quarter, adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar variations, according to preliminary data from the country's statistics office released Monday.

HSBC Holdings Third-Quarter Net Profit More Than Doubled

HSBC Holdings PLC's third-quarter net profit more than doubled as the London-based banking giant continued to benefit from higher interest rates and sharply higher noninterest income.

The Asia-focused lender posted net profit of $5.62 billion for the three months to Sept. 30, up from $2.00 billion in the year-earlier period, it said Monday. HSBC's pretax profit, the bank's preferred profit measure, rose to $7.71 billion from $3.23 billion.

Shein Buys Missguided Brand From Frasers

Chinese e-commerce giant Shein is adding Frasers Group's Missguided to its shopping basket.

Shein agreed to buy U.K. online women's fashion label Missguided from retailer Frasers for an undisclosed sum, the companies said on Monday.

IFF to Sell Cosmetics Ingredients Unit to Clariant for $810 Million

Swiss chemicals company Clariant AG will buy a cosmetic ingredients unit of International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. for $810 million.

New York-based IFF said Monday that it would use proceeds from the deal to reduce debt, consistent with previously announced plans to strengthen its capital structure.

U.K. Home Prices Fall Became More Widespread in October

The U.K. housing market saw widespread price falls in September, as higher mortgage rates and cost-of-living pressures squeezed buyer budgets across most local markets, according to new research published by Zoopla.

U.K. house prices fell 1.1% on year, the most dramatic slowdown in price growth since 2009. House price falls-previously concentrated in Southern England-are now hitting 80% of local markets, though the size of the declines remains limited below 5%, the real-estate company said Monday.

GLOBAL NEWS

Workers Are Doing Less Work for the Same Pay

Americans are increasingly getting paid for not doing work.

Growth in paid-time off-including family leave, sick leave and vacation-is widening the gap between the number of hours for which workers get paid and the number of hours they are actually on the job.

Higher Bond Yields Could End the Fed's Historic Rate Rises

Federal Reserve officials have said for more than a year that beating inflation could require them to hold interest rates higher for longer than investors expected.

The swift run-up in long-term Treasury yields-to around 5% from 4% in early August-suggests Wall Street now agrees. As a result, borrowing costs for U.S. businesses and households are rising in ways that could allow the Fed to suspend its historic run of interest-rate increases.

Does Strong Growth Fuel Inflation? Fed Debates Whether Old Model Still Applies

Since Federal Reserve officials last raised interest rates in July, the economy is doing two things that central bankers don't think it can sustain much longer: revving up activity and at the same time slowing inflation.

It has set off a debate within the central bank about how closely it should follow its traditional models of the economy. The debate is unlikely to affect the outcome of its meeting this week, when the Fed is set to hold interest rates steady to provide more time to see the effects of their rapid increases over the past two years.

Israel Makes Major Advance Toward Gaza City

TEL AVIV-Israeli tanks and infantry pushed into the outskirts of Gaza City on Monday and severed one of the main roads connecting the northern part of the Gaza Strip to the south, witnesses said, in a major advance that appeared aimed at encircling the enclave's biggest population center.

A spokesman for the Israeli military declined to discuss the locations of troops, but said operations inside Gaza were expanding as more armored vehicles, artillery and combat engineers joined the fight aimed at dismantling the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas and evicting it from Gaza.

Why Trump's Drastic Plan to Slash the Government Could Succeed

WASHINGTON-For decades, conservatives have tried-and largely failed-to fundamentally reshape the federal government. If Donald Trump retakes the White House, they might succeed.

In campaign speeches and statements, the former president has promised to eliminate the independence of key federal agencies, reduce protections for civil servants, deny citizenship to tens of thousands of people born in the U.S. and wrest control of some authority over spending from Congress. If implemented, those measures and others Trump has proposed would amount to the most sweeping overhaul of the government in modern times, legal scholars said.

Sources: [Market Screener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/European-Midday-Briefing-Stocks-Gain-as-Investors-Await-Central-Bank-Meetings-45184047/)

[Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202310303749/european-midday-briefing-stocks-gain-as-investors-await-central-bank-meetings)

[ADVFN](https://au.advfn.com/stock-market/stock-news/92399142/european-midday-briefing-stocks-gain-as-investors)

European Midday Briefing: Stocks Gain as Investors Await Central Bank Meetings

Global stock markets ended the week mostly up, with bourses in the US and Europe gaining as official data showed inflation has been easing.

The Price Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key inflation measure monitored by the US Federal Reserve, showed that prices cooled last month, indicating that the central bank's interest rate increases were easing pressures.

The index rose 3.8 per cent on an annual basis in May, down from 4.3 per cent a month in April. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 4.6 per cent on an annual basis, after a 4.7 per cent increase the previous month.

The report comes as Fed policymakers consider whether to issue another pause on interest rate increases after doing so earlier this month.

The stock market was also lifted by Apple, whose valuation topped $3 trillion on Friday, cementing its standing as the world's most valuable company.

At the close of trading, the S&P 500 rose 1.4 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.8 per cent.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.45 per cent, to cap its best first-half performance in 40 years with a more than 31 per cent rise through the first six months of 2023.

For the week, the S&P 500 rose 2.3 per cent, the Dow added 2 per cent and the Nasdaq increased 2.2 per cent. Year-to-date, the indices are up 15.9 per cent, 3.8 per cent and 31.7 per cent, respectively.

"*The US stock market could see some volatility and could remain under some pressure with attention turning again toward monetary policy,*" Ralph Ratterman, asset manager at DHF Capital, wrote in a note.

"*The expectations of higher interest rates as expressed by the Federal Reserve could continue to constitute a source of risks for the market over the medium term*."

In Europe, London's FTSE 100 settled 0.8 per cent higher, lifted by financial stocks, but posted a quarterly loss to snap two consecutive three-month periods of growth on inflation concerns and a hawkish tone from the Bank of England.

Investors also took note of the UK's tepid economic growth, with the Office of National Statistics reporting that gross domestic product inched up 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, narrowly avoiding a recession.

Elsewhere in Europe, Frankfurt's DAX closed up 1.3 per cent and Paris's CAC 40 settled 1.2 per cent higher, with investors still focused on inflation.

"*Inflation is still high, and that means that the bank still has more work to do. The [European Central Bank] certainly can't afford to be overly dovish, as inflation in their projection is still high for the coming years in comparison to their previous projections,*" said Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer of Zaye Capital Markets.

"*But this matters less as the bank is more likely to adjust them as the data suggests new improvements. At the same time, the fact that projections are moving upward rather than downward isn’t the best news*."

Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index diverged, following data that showed China's economy slowed down, sparking concerns that Beijing may implement new steps to boost activity.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 settled 0.1 per cent lower.

In commodities, oil prices settled higher on Friday but posted quarterly losses as the big drop in US crude oil inventories outweighed investor concerns that further interest rate rises and inflation will dent oil demand.

Brent gained 0.75 per cent, or $0.56, to close at $74.90 a barrel and posted a fourth straight quarter of declines. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.12 per cent, or $0.78, to settle at $70.64 a barrel to record a second consecutive quarter of losses.

Gold, meanwhile, gained $11.50 to settle 6 per cent higher at $1,929.40 an ounce, but still posted a quarterly loss, pressured by expectations of more interest rate hikes.

Source: [The National News](https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/markets/2023/07/01/us-and-european-stock-markets-gain-on-cooling-inflation-data/)

US and European stock markets gain on cooling inflation data

This article was published on June 12th, 2024.

O ouro fechou em alta, à medida que os mercados tomaram nota dos dados mais fracos que o esperado da inflação nos EUA, antes da decisão de política monetária do Federal Reserve (Fed). O índice de preços ao consumidor (CPI, na sigla em inglês) do país pressionou o dólar, e o movimento no câmbio tende a apoiar o metal.

O contrato futuro de ouro para agosto na Comex, divisão de metais da New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), fechou em alta de 1,21%, para US$ 2.354,80 por onça troy.

O metal era negociado nas máximas desde a sexta-feira, quando dados do payroll frustraram as esperanças de um corte na taxa de juros em breve, provocando um movimento de liquidação do metal. Os dados do CPI divulgados hoje, porém, voltaram a alimentar a expectativa por corte de juros pelo Fed em setembro.
Os juros dos Treasuries estão normalmente inversamente relacionados com os preços do ouro, uma vez que o metal concorre com a renda fixa americana como opção de ativo seguro. Para Bas Kooijman, CEO e gestor de ativos da gestora de investimentos DHF Capital, a inflação menos intensa deve continuar a impulsionar o ouro.

Mesmo com a expectativa de manutenção dos juros hoje pelo Fed, os futuros do ouro subiram quase 14% no acumulado do ano, superando a maioria dos outros ativos, uma vez que questões como o aumento da dívida nacional permanecem persistentes, disse Jonathan Rose, CEO do Genesis Gold Group. “Esperamos que fatores como a instabilidade política e econômica nos Estados Unidos tenham um impacto enorme no valor do ouro no futuro”, disse Rose. Com muitas previsões de que o ouro exceda a marca de US$ 3.000 a US$ 5.000 por onça-troy na próxima década, a Genesis Gold permanece altamente otimista em relação ao metal precioso, acrescentou Rose.

*Com informações da Dow Jones Newswires.

Sources: <a href="https://www.msn.com/pt-br/dinheiro/economia-e-negocios/ouro-sobe-ante-recuo-do-d%C3%B3lar-ap%C3%B3s-cpi-dos-eua-e-com-perspectiva-de-demanda-apoiada/ar-BB1o6HJt?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds" target="_blank"> Microsoft Start </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9l" target="_blank"> br.investing.com </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9k" target="_blank"> Istoe </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/HoA9" target="_blank"> Opovo </a>

<a href="lhttps://mediao.me/Ho9o" target="_blank"> Folha de Pernambuco </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9m" target="_blank"> Estadao </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9r" target="_blank"> Liberal </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9s" target="_blank"> RD </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9v" target="_blank"> guarulhosweb.com. </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9q" target="_blank"> Diario Do Grande ABC </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9n" target="_blank"> Dinheiro </a>

Le dollar poursuit sa trajectoire baissière jeudi pour retomber à ses plus bas niveaux depuis le mois de juillet en raison des anticipations grandissantes de baisses de taux aux Etats-Unis l'an prochain.

Après avoir signé des performances erratiques toute l'année, au gré de l'évolution des prévisions entourant l'évolution de la politique monétaire de la Fed, la monnaie américaine s'est nettement dépréciée ces dernières semaines, la Réserve fédérale ayant clairement laissé entendre qu'elle pourrait commencer à réduire ses taux d'intérêt dès le mois de mars 2024.

Le dollar index, qui compare le billet vert face à un panier de monnaies, décroche encore de 0,3% aujourd'hui, sous 100,7, sa plus faible marque depuis le 19 juillet.

Il s'échange actuellement à 104,7 face au yen, son niveau le plus bas depuis le 31 juillet.

Contre la monnaie unique européenne, le dollar se négocie autour de 1,1125 pour un euro, à un creux de cinq mois également.

Même dynamique face à la livre sterling, qui revient en direction de ses sommets annuels.

L'accès de faiblesse du dollar est en grande partie alimenté par le repli des rendements obligataires américains, qui limite mécaniquement la rémunération du billet vert.

Le cycle de baisse du dollar pourrait néanmoins toucher à sa fin, estiment certains professionnels, pour lesquels le billet vert devrait s'apprécier face à la plupart des grandes devises en 2024 en dépit des baisses de taux prévues Outre-Atlantique.

'La rapide détérioration de l'économie européenne, qui voit des pays comme l'Allemagne confrontés à des risques de récession, pourrait conduire la BCE à revoir sa politique actuelle lors de sa prochaine réunion', commente Ralph Ratterman, gérant d'actifs chez DHF Capital.

Les marchés de changes intégraient jusqu'ici le scénario d'une première baisse de taux aux Etats-Unis, avant l'Europe, mais les investisseurs penchent de plus en plus en faveur d'une réduction rapide du loyer de l'argent sur le Vieux Continent, où le besoin d'agir se fait pressant.

'Au Royaume-Uni aussi, les récents indicateurs qui montrent une contraction de l'activité économique et un ralentissement des pressions inflationnistes pourraient pousser la Banque d'Angleterre à opter pour des baisses de taux', ajoute Ralph Ratterman.

Au Japon, la banque centrale conserve sa politique de taux négatifs et a encore récemment évoqué la possibilité de 'mesures d'assouplissement supplémentaires'.

Sources: <a href="https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/actualites/devises-le-dollar-retombe-a-des-plus-bas-de-cinq-mois-cb923033fe1e11ec83d3a724220650a8" target="_blank"> Boursorama </a>

<a href="http://www.cerclefinance.com/default.asp?pub=valactu&art=704681" target="_blank"> Cerle Finance </a>

<a href="https://www.tvfmedia.fr/articles/marches/devises-le-dollar-retombe-agrave-des-plus-bas-de-cinq-mois--15711422.html" target="_blank"> TV Finance </a>

<a href="https://news.dayfr.com/trends/3104965.html" target="_blank"> News day FR </a>

<a href="https://www.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/Devises-le-dollar-retombe-a-des-plus-bas-de-cinq-mois-45644005/" target="_blank"> Zonebourse </a>