The dollar started the month on a strong note, driven by internal and external factors in a week packed with crucial economic data on both sides of the Atlantic. Domestically, Donald Trump's recent warning of imposing a 100% trade tariff on BRIC nations if they move to replace the greenback, added pressure to the currency markets, lifting U.S. treasury yields across all maturities.

In addition, a resilient U.S. economy has also supported the dollar. Investors are now cautiously awaiting upcoming key economic data, including the ISM PMI, ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls scheduled for this week. Furthermore, speeches by several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, will be closely monitored. Robust economic data, coupled with a less dovish monetary policy stance, could sustain the dollar’s upward momentum.

Externally, the ongoing political turmoil in France and the upcoming European economic data have heightened uncertainty regarding the region’s economic stability, weighing down on the Euro. This uncertainty could demand for other major currencies, further fuelling the dollar’s appeal.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/dollar-strengthens-amid-trade-tensions-and-economic-resilience/#google_vignette" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

The US dollar remained relatively steady for the second consecutive day following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The comments were closely followed as traders looked for new information regarding the direction the Federal Reserve might be taking. This affected market sentiment to a certain extent although Powell refrained from giving any clear signals. However, Powell’s cautious optimism concerning inflation could support bets that the Fed could take a softer approach soon. Expectations for a September interest rate cut remain elevated while markets price an additional rate cut this year, bringing the total to three for 2024.

This shift has notably affected Treasury yields which have been under pressure in anticipation of the highly expected rate cuts. Increasing expectations of a softer monetary policy could drive yields lower still. In this regard, 10-year Treasury yields are well below this year’s peak and could move under this month’s lows if economic data supports current market expectations.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of the dollar and Treasury yields will heavily depend on forthcoming US economic data, particularly June’s retail sales figures expected later today. Market consensus anticipates unchanged retail sales for June, compared to a 0.1% increase in April, indicating expectations of a weakened consumer sentiment. Persisting softness in consumer spending may further impact the dollar and Treasury yields in the near term.

Sources: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/dollar-remains-on-a-steady-course-after-powells-remark/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20240716002125:0/" target="_blank"> Trading View </a>

<a href="https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.investorideas.com/news/2024/main/07163Dollar.asp&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTNzI0NzYxMTk2MjYzNzAyNzI4NDIcODdiMThhNjExNWE2MWI2Mzpjb206ZW46VVM6TA&usg=AOvVaw1LmWv-ZpF_dAqe_64ylVNT" target="_blank"> Investor Ideas </a>

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Dollar Steady Course After Powell’s Remark

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The US dollar remained relatively flat during the early European session following a weak performance on Tuesday, attributed to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Despite a robust domestic jobs report, US bond yields declined. Powell’s remarks suggested that the US economy is on a “disinflationary path”, which put the greenback on the defensive. However, Powell reiterated the Fed’s stance on requiring comprehensive data before considering rate cuts, emphasising the central bank’s data-dependent approach. 

The upcoming inflation readings will be crucial in shaping future US interest rate decisions. In May, US core consumer prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, moderating from April’s 0.3% uptick and marking the slowest rise in seven months. If inflationary pressures continue to moderate in June, the dollar could continue to experience limited upside in the near term. 

Market participants are anticipating up to two rate cuts from the Fed this year. This dovish stance could pressure Treasury yields to the downside. Furthermore, the release of the minutes from the Fed's June meeting later today is highly anticipated, as it could provide further insights into the Fed's current policy stance in addition to the PMI data, both of which could impact the US currency and yields.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/the-dollar-stable-despite-powells-dovish-remarks-awaiting-fed-minutes-impact/#google_vignette" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

The dollar stable despite Powell’s dovish remarks awaiting Fed minutes impact

Dollar strengthens amid trade tensions and economic resilience

El Gobierno francés pende de un hilo ante una posible moción de censura

Cara y cruz en el mercado de divisas. Mientras el dólar estadounidense sigue dando muestras de fortaleza desde la victoria de Donald Trump en las elecciones presidenciales de EEUU, el euro se mantiene bajo presión ante los múltiples desafíos que asolan al Viejo Continente. Así, la divisa comunitaria se deprecia un 0,90%, hasta los 1,0481 'billetes verdes' con los fantasmas de la paridad acechando.

En Europa, todas las miradas están puestas sobre la caótica situación política de Francia después de que el primer ministro, Michel Barnier, haya aprobado por decreto los Presupuestos para 2025, lo que ha provocado que la oposición presente una moción de censura que será debatida, con toda probabilidad, el próximo miércoles en la Asamblea Nacional.

El partido de extrema derecha de Marine Le Pen ha comunicado en una publicación en su perfil de X que votará contra el primer ministro. "No importa quién presente la moción de censura contra Barnier, votaremos por todos", ha avanzado. "Le presenté nuestras líneas rojas y no ha querido aceptarlas. No podemos aceptar estos presupuestos profundamente injustos porque hacen pagar a los franceses la incompetencia de Macron", ha añadido Le Pen.

"Como resultado, los índices europeos están en números rojos, los rendimientos franceses probablemente revertirán las caídas del jueves y viernes pasados, el diferencial entre los rendimientos de Alemania y Francia podría superar los 100 puntos básicos, y el euro está bajo presión", valora Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analista sénior de Swissquote Bank.

La estabilidad económica de la región es otro de los puntos en contra del euro. De hecho, el sector manufacturero de la eurozona se ha deteriorado a un ritmo más rápido en noviembre, en base al índice PMI. "Es como si la recesión manufacturera de la zona euro nunca fuera a terminar". "No hay señales de una recuperación a corto plazo", comentan en Hamburg Commercial Bank.

"Esta incertidumbre podría generar demanda de otras monedas importantes, lo que aumentaría aún más el atractivo del dólar", comenta Bas Kooijman, director ejecutivo y gestor de activos de DHF Capital SA.

Precisamente, en el lado contrario se encuentra el dólar, que ha comenzado el mes de diciembre con una nota fuerte, impulsado por factores internos y externos. "La reciente advertencia de Trump de imponer un arancel comercial del 100% a los países BRIC si deciden reemplazar al dólar, agregó presión a los mercados de divisas, lo que elevó los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense en todos los vencimientos", explica el analista.

La resiliencia de la economía estadounidense también ha respaldado al dólar y junto con una postura de política monetaria menos moderada, podrían "sostener su impulso alcista", concluye Kooijman.

Source: <a href="https://www.bolsamania.com/noticias/pulsos-divisas/euro-cae-tension-politica-francia-mientras-dolar-mantiene-atractivo--18230424.html" target="_blank"> Bolsamania </a>

This article was published on 18th July, 2024.

Los futuros del Euro Stoxx 50 anticipan una apertura prácticamente plana. El Ibex 35 cerró ayer con un alza del 0,13% y logró reconquistar los 11.100 puntos. Los inversores están pendientes hoy de la reunión del BCE y de los resultados empresariales. Wall Street cerró anoche en terreno mixto, con un nuevo récord en el índice Dow Jones, que superó los 41.

Sin embargo, el componente fiscal podría entrar a jugar un papel importante”. Bas Kooijman, CEO y Gestor de Activos de DHF Capital: “Los precios del oro alcanzaron máximos históricos el miércoles debido a las crecientes expectativas de un recorte de los tipos de interés estadounidenses en septiembre, tras las recientes declaraciones de los responsables de la Reserva Federal.

Source: <a href="https://headtopics.com/es/cautela-en-las-bolsas-con-un-ojo-en-los-resultados-y-otro-56040840" target="_blank"> Head Topics </a>

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(ES) Cautela en las Bolsas con un ojo en los resultados y otro en el BCE

«El oro se mantiene estable cerca del nivel de 2.500 dólares y continuó cotizando dentro de un rango cercano durante varios días. Los inversores podrían mantener la cautela mientras siguen de cerca los posibles movimientos de la Reserva Federal en materia de tasas de interés y el cambio de expectativas tras los últimos datos económicos.

El último informe sobre el empleo en EE.UU. mostró que se crearon menos puestos de trabajo de los esperados, con importantes revisiones a la baja para junio y julio, mientras que la tasa de desempleo bajó al 4,2% desde el 4,3% de julio.

Este informe mixto limitó la probabilidad de un recorte de tasas de 50 puntos básicos, aunque todavía se espera que la Reserva Federal recorte las tasas en 125 puntos básicos en total este año. En consecuencia, los precios del oro podrían mantenerse en una banda de fluctuación a la espera de nuevos acontecimientos.

La atención se centra ahora en el próximo informe sobre la inflación en Estados Unidos. Una inflación inferior a la prevista podría aumentar las posibilidades de mayores recortes de tasas, lo que probablemente beneficiaría al metal precioso.

Al mismo tiempo, los retos económicos tanto en EE.UU. como en China, junto con las próximas elecciones en EE.UU., podrían seguir apoyando al oro como activo refugio».

Source: <a href="https://worldenergytrade.com/el-precio-del-oro-mantiene-estabilidad-relativa-previo-a-los-datos-de-inflacion-de-eeuu/" target="_blank"> World Energy Trade </a>

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(ES) El precio del oro mantiene estabilidad relativa previo a los datos de inflación de EEUU

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(ES) El euro cae ante la tensión política en Francia mientras el dólar mantiene su "atractivo"

This article was published on November 15, 2024.

Gold prices rose to records leading up to the presidential election, but they’ve slumped ever since, ending today’s trading with the biggest weekly price decline since the Covid lockdown in March 2020.

Gold futures fell for the seventh time in eight trading sessions since the election and are now 8% off the all-time high of $2,788.50 a troy ounce hit on Oct. 30. Shares of the huge SPDR Gold Shares exchange traded fund-a popular way for individual investors to trade gold-are down 8% from their peak and on track for a six-day losing streak.

Source: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-edges-higher-upcoming-data-to-determine-sentiment-aae7448e" target="_blank"> The Wall Street Journal </a>

Gold prices plunged nearly three dirhams per gram in the UAE on Thursday morning after the US Federal Reserve paused rates hikes.

According to Dubai Jewellery Group data, the 24K was trading at Dh234.25 at the opening of the markets as compared to last night’s close of Dh237.0 per gram, down Dh2.75 per gram. Similarly, 22K, 21K and 18K also opened lower at Dh216.75, Dh209.75 and Dh180.0 per gram respectively.

Spot gold was trading in the negative territory at $1,931.98 per ounce at 9.18 am UAE time.

The Fed refrained from raising interest rates at the end of the meeting on Wednesday. However, analysts expect further rate hikes later this year, rising from 5.0-5.25 to a range of 5.50-5.75 per cent by the end of 2023.

The drop in prices will boost demand for the precious metal and its jewellery in the UAE.

The Dubai-based financial services provider Century Financial said a break below $1,930 can instil corrections towards $1,912 followed by $1,890.

Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital, said the UAE’s precious metals market, including gold, jewellery, gold bars and silver, was valued at Dh8.52 billion in 2020 and it is expected to reach a value of Dh13.21 billion by the end of the decade at a compound annual growth rate of 3.66 per cent through 2030.

Sources: [Khaleej Times](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/markets/time-to-buy-uae-gold-prices-plunge-nearly-dh3-per-gram?amp=1)
[Zawya](https://www.zawya.com/en/markets/commodities/time-to-buy-uae-gold-prices-plunge-nearly-082-per-gram-a7vifgct)
[UAE Times](https://uaetimes.ae/time-to-buygold-prices-plunge-nearly-dh3-per-gram-in-uae-news/)

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Time to buy? UAE gold prices plunge nearly Dh3 per gram

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Gold prices stabilized to a certain extent as traders reacted to the efforts deployed by the US to contain the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A political deal between all parties involved could relieve the tensions and pull gold to the downside.

The concerns about a flare-up in the region have boosted the commodity during the last few days after a long decline from this year’s peak under the weight of the US monetary policy expectations and the dollar’s strength.

Over the short term, gold prices could continue to fluctuate in response to the developments in the Middle East. The uncertainty could result in more volatility and caution while the next steps in the conflict could generate significant risks and could affect risk sentiment.

The tensions could see investors favor safe-haven assets in general as they err toward the side of caution as risks continue to accumulate. As a result, a longer and more violent conflict could see gold prices surge.

At the same time, monetary policy could remain a potent force in the market as traders continue to consider its potential developments. Gold could continue to react to new economic data releases as traders reassess their expectations. Stronger-than-expected economic figures could create additional pressure on gold prices.

Source: [London Loves Business](https://londonlovesbusiness.com/geopolitical-risks-support-gold-prices-uncertainty-ahead/)

Geopolitical risks support gold prices, uncertainty ahead

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Has Gold Lost Its Luster?

This article was published on November 20, 2024.

Gold futures extended gains for a third straight session Wednesday, as investors continued to follow safe haven trading on geopolitical worries that have ratcheted higher since Russia's Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of missile attacks from Ukraine.

The Russia-Ukraine war is re-emerging as a key support factor for gold, and analysts say the risks could contribute to more buying interest in gold and provide a foundation for sustained interest in the metal going forward, although persistent pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar could continue to cap gains.

Robust economic data and concerns over potential tariffs and tax cuts could heighten inflationary risks and lead to a potential pause in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could create additional downward risks for non-interest bearing gold in the near-term, DHF Capital's Bas Kooijman said.

Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR) for November delivery ended +0.8% to $2,648.20/oz, its best settlement since November 8, but front-month November silver (XAGUSD:CUR) closed -0.8% to $30.956/oz.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (RING), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)

Gold will rally to $2,900/oz by the end of next year, according to analysts at UBS, echoing Goldman Sachs' outlook earlier this week for further gains.

Following a likely period of consolidation due to the stronger dollar and concerns over the potential for higher rates in the U.S., UBS analysts including Levi Spry and Lachlan Shaw said they see gold climbing again.

"The U.S. Red Sweep, strong diversification buying interest and elevated global uncertainty [will] continue to support prices... driven by continued strategic gold allocations and official-sector purchases in a backdrop of high macro volatility and persistent geopolitical risks," UBS said.

Like Goldman's $3,000 gold forecast, the UBS bullish view also anticipates higher demand from central banks and stronger flows to ETFs.

"The official sector, which tends to buy physical gold bars, is likely to continue adding to reserves, for diversification purposes and amid geopolitical tensions and sanctions risks," UBS wrote, adding that "many central banks' gold reserves remain small as a percentage of total assets."

Source: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4314074-ubs-joins-goldman-among-big-banks-predicting-resumption-of-gold-rally" target="_blank"> Seeking Alpha </a>

Gold prices remained steady, holding recent gains as investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today. The key focus is whether the Fed will cut its interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. A larger cut of 50 basis points could further support gold, a non-yielding asset, as the dollar declines. The market will also monitor Fed Chair Powell’s comments and the Dot Plot projections for clues on future rate cuts.

A 25 basis point cut might have a short-term negative impact on gold and offer some support to the dollar. However, the overall outlook for gold remains positive, as global central banks are beginning to ease monetary policies. Market participants are also paying attention to the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday and the Bank of Japan’s update on Friday for additional insights.

Apart from monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. political uncertainty ahead of the November election could continue to support the precious metal. Strong demand from central banks and increased gold ETF inflows are also contributing to gold’s upward momentum.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/gold-remains-stable-ahead-of-fed-policy-decision/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

Gold Remains Stable Ahead of Fed Policy Decision

On Wednesday, gold reached a new all-time high of $2,758 driven by strong momentum amid US political uncertainty, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and global central banks' easing policies.

These factors are once again fueling sustained demand for gold as a safe haven.

“With the US presidential election just over two weeks away, polls suggest that former President Donald Trump's chances of winning are increasing. This possibility is prompting investors to seek more safe-haven assets like gold to hedge against potential controversial policies he might implement, which could impact inflation, monetary policy, and global trade,” wrote Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A.

“Additionally, the persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are supporting gold prices, as demand for safe haven assets grows with no clear signs of de-escalation in the near term.”

The big gold story of the week was Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM, TSX:NGT, ASX:NEM, ETR:NMM)'s 3Q earnings miss, which caused the gold producer to lose nearly 10% of its market value.

Elsewhere, gold juniors were making news with tidy capital raises, new metallurgy results and continued exploration pushes. Here’s some of the gold stories making news this week.

Source: <a href="https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1059196/gold-recorded-new-all-time-high-this-week-as-us-election-geopolitical-tensions-heat-up-1059196.html" target="_blank"> Proactive </a>

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Gold recorded new all-time high this week as US election, geopolitical tensions heat up

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USB joins Goldman among big banks predicting resumption of gold rally

This article was published on November 20, 2024.

Analysts expect the chip juggernaut to surpass earnings estimates on Wednesday, though concern remains over chip production issues

Nvidia is slated to report its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday. While expectations for another big quarter are not new, the focus may now shift to whether the artificial intelligence chip juggernaut can also maintain its high profits.

Analysts are expecting the California-based company to surpass earnings estimates, with revenue to hit about $33.2 billion, which would be an 84 per cent annual jump, underpinned by a projected doubling of data centre revenue.

Nvidia, the largest stock by market capitalisation in the S&P 500, is also likely to raise its guidance for the fourth quarter. Its stock rallied as much as 5 per cent ahead of Wednesday's earnings report and has nearly tripled so far in 2024.

The company took off amid the generative AI boom started by OpenAI in early 2023, and its ascent rubbed off on other chip shares and the wider stock market.

Whether it will, again, be able to spark another tech rally – which has since cooled down – in the wake of Donald Trump's victory remains to be seen. But the chips seem to be in place.

"Nvidia has consistently delivered positive earnings surprises that have sparked market-wide rallies," Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist of Copenhagen-based Saxo Bank, told The National. "Expectations are understandably high, given its central role in the Al revolution – a structural theme with minimal competition thus far.

"However, for Nvidia to maintain its positive momentum amidst these lofty expectations, continued hyperscaler capex investments and a robust production pipeline for its Blackwell chips will be critical."

**Trumping the tech rally cool-down**

The increasingly tech-friendly incoming administration of Mr Trump was reflected in technology stocks in the immediate aftermath of his win.

Nvidia's stock gained as much as 6.4 per cent from its November 5 close, though it has since mellowed down and settled to a mere 0.2 per cent gain on Monday – before again jumping about 5 per cent on Tuesday ahead of its earnings report. Google’s parent company Alphabet, Amazon 1.6 and Microsoft 0.8 per cent also logged the same up-and-down trend.

Nvidia's results have historically led to significant share price movement, given its one-day implied volatility of around 9 per cent on the day of its results, and its earnings and outlook would provide important insights into the dynamics of the AI and technology sector, said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer of Dubai-based Century Financial.

“The company’s results are also expected to influence strategies across the industry, impact market sentiment and guide future tech market trends. Therefore, Nvidia’s earnings play a pivotal role in the resurrection of the broader tech rally that has cooled down since Mr Trump’s win,” Mr Valecha told The National.

It is worth noting, however, that Nvidia is not bulletproof, no matter how hot it is or how slick its presentation is: its stock slumped 2 per cent after its much-hyped Blackwell presentation in March, as investors were somewhat underwhelmed.

That means any disappointing results, no matter how highly unlikely, or a lukewarm reception from investors could further amplify existing market uncertainties, said Bas Kooijman, chief executive of DHF Capital.

“The broader market has experienced declines in major indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, driven by inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve’s commentary on interest rates,” he told The National.

“Nvidia’s performance holds significant weight, with a strong earnings report having the potential to reinvigorate investor confidence and provide a catalyst for the tech sector’s recovery.”

Investors are a tough crowd to please: even Nvidia's blowout second-quarter results and solid outlook were not necessarily enough to boost its share price at the time, noted Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

“Over time, and at the current valuations, investors have become harder to satisfy and increasingly worried about what could go wrong,” she said.

Still, Nvidia would remain the “king of the castle”, so “we simply have to cast our eyes back on the stock and react to what we see from earnings and what Jensen Huang has to say”, Chris Weston, head of research at online broker Pepperstone, told The National.

The prospect of a positive outlook on future sales growth, as the ramp up of Blackwell and other products in the pipeline come to market, suggests the prospects of pleasing the market is elevated, he added.

“Nvidia has the capacity to lift all that swim in its waters,” Mr Weston said.

**Blackwell mania**

Nvidia introduced its Blackwell chips seeking to solidify its position amid the generative AI boom. Chief executive Jensen Huang at the time touted them as “the most advanced GPU in the world”.

The Blackwell processor is up to five times more powerful than its predecessor, the Hopper, and capable of delivering up to 20 petaflops of performance, compared to Hopper's 4 petaflops. A petaflop is equivalent to one quadrillion operations per second. It can also support trillions of parameters for training large language models, the underlying technology powering generative AI.

Mr Huang also added a foreboding statement, saying the “excitement … is really off the charts” – which came to fruition when, last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were sold out for the next 12 months. He is also expected to allay concerns over Blackwell production challenges, specifically the overheating issues reported this week.

Still, investors appear to be “very comfortable” with the current dynamic of near-term supply constraints that ease into early 2025 and would evolve into a “sizeable ramp” of Blackwell production from April 2025, Mr Weston said.

“With such significant investment still streaming through from the hyperscalers, the message is clear – AI is the future,” he said.

“While some feel a concern that perhaps these businesses may not achieve the required returns on that investment that justify such huge levels of capex, one has to believe they know what they are doing – and Nvidia will remain the leader of the pack that absorbs this flow of investment for some time to come.”

Caution remains on Blackwell delays, however, which is the “most obvious thing that could go wrong” for the company, Ms Ozkardeskaya said. The company had successfully tamed worries regarding the chips in the last quarter, and may well likely do so again today, she added.

“They will probably play down the delays that could happen for this type of technology releases and focus on the insanity of the demand. If the company could convince investors that they are making progress to meet this insane demand, the reaction will likely be positive,” she said.

In addition, the Blackwell's overheating and design issues are “overblown”, Dylan Patel, chief analyst at semiconductor and AI industry tracker SemiAnalysis, had said on X.

Source: <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2024/11/20/can-nvidias-blackwell-chip-boon-carry-its-stock-forward-beyond-trumps-bump/" target="_blank"> The National </a>

This article was published on 17th September 2024.

**The week that was**

After hitting a bump the previous week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw their largest weekly gains in 2024.


Sentiment improved markedly last week, with the CBOE Volatility Index, or “fear gauge”, dropping by 20% to about 16.5. A VIX level of 16 usually indicates the market expects lower fluctuations in stock prices over the short term.

The rally comes just right before the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where a decision on interest rates is set to be announced on Wednesday, September 18 (US time).

To summarise, the week started with traders focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, which was the final key data before the Fed’s decision.

The report showed a welcoming trend, with US inflation easing to a three-year low in August as consumer prices rose just 2.5%, down from 2.9% in July.

While this gives the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates this week, a more modest 25 basis-point cut is expected instead of a bigger 50-basis point cut.

“The data strengthened expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut, with the market now pricing in an 85% chance,” said Erik Boekel at DHF Capital.

Further good news came on Thursday when the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August came in at 2.4%, slightly below the 2.5% forecast and matching July’s figure.

The Fed monitors the PPI closely as it reflects price pressures at the factory level before they reach consumers.

Following this data release, market expectations shifted, increasing the odds of a 50-basis point cut.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors now see a roughly 49% chance of the larger cut, up from just 15% on Thursday.

This shift in expectations contributed to another market rally on Friday, boosting stock market gains for the week.

**Wall Street divided**

Strictly speaking, a 25 basis point cut isn’t really news. Markets have long expected this, even if they didn’t get the timing exactly right (with many initially predicting the first rate cut as early as March 2024).

But this anticipation has been a major factor driving stock market gains over the past 18 months.

Some strategists believe a 25 basis point cut would actually be more prudent than a 50 basis point cut, because the Fed Reserve, they say, shouldn’t be making a larger cut without clear signs of recession or a financial crisis.

“For everyone who’s asking for a 50 basis point cut, I think they should really reconsider the amount of volatility that would cause in short-term funding markets,” Yardeni Research’s Eric Wallerstein told Yahoo.

“It’s just not something the Fed wants to risk.”

Another reason to not go for 50 is the message it would convey – that the Fed must know something that the rest of us don’t.

However, in the event the Fed decides to go for the bigger cut, small caps could get a “significant rally”, says Eric Johnston at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Either way, rate cuts in general are positive for markets, especially when the Fed is cutting rates without the presence of a recession.

Data shows that historically, when the Fed eased policy without an accompanying recession – such as in 1966, 1984, 1995 and 1998 – markets have performed well after the first rate cut.

Source: <a href="https://stockhead.com.au/nasdaq-wrap/nasdaq-wrap-wall-street-notches-best-week-in-2024-as-nvidia-rebounds-but-will-the-fed-spoil-it-all/" target="_blank"> Stockhead </a>

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Nasdaq Wrap: Wall Street notches best week in 2024 as Nvidia rebounds; but will the Fed spoil it all?

This article was published on 12th September 2024.

The ASX is set to climb after data showed that US inflation eased in August to hit a three-year low. At 8am AEST, the SPI ASX200 futures contract was pointing up by 0.6%.

Overnight, Wall Street surged on the CPI reading – the S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow Jones rose by 0.3% and the tech heavy Nasdaq lifted by over 2%.

US consumer prices climbed just 2.5% from last August, down from 2.9% in July, while core prices ticked up slightly to 3.2%.

While this gives the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates when they convene on September 17, a more modest 25 basis-point cut is now expected instead of a bigger 50-basis point cut.

“The data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with the market currently pricing in an 85% probability,” said Erik Boekel at DHF Capital.

Meanwhile, market darling Nvidia popped by over 8% after CEO Jensen Huang revealed the company was struggling to keep up with soaring demand.

Interviewed by Goldman Sachs’s CEO David Solomon last night, Huang said,” Demand is so great that delivery of our components, our technology, infrastructure, and software is really emotional for people.”

“Now what’s amazing is, the first trillion dollars of data centres is going to get accelerated and invented this new type of software called generative AI. Generative AI is not just a tool, it’s a skill,” Huang told Solomon.

In other stocks news, Pfizer fell 0.3% despite being upgraded to a Buy rating by Zacks, reflecting its improved earnings estimates.

Meme stock Gamestop plunged 12% after reporting that its revenue fell by nearly a third to $798.3 million in the last quarter.

Albemarle‘s shares soared 13% after reports that Chinese EV battery maker CATL may have suspended two lepidolite mines, potentially cutting China’s lithium carbonate production by 8%. This sparked a buying frenzy in lithium stocks, including those on the ASX yesterday.

Elsewhere, oil prices rebounded from a 3% drop as Hurricane Francine battered key US Gulf oil regions, causing traders to cover their bearish positions.

West Texas Intermediate rose over 2% to settle above US$67 a barrel, while Brent crude topped $70 once again.

YouGov’s latest research reveals a big uptick in Aussie Gen Zs getting into Bitcoin over the past year.

According to the survey, 20% of Australians now own digital assets, down from 23% last year.

But it’s the younger crowd that’s really driving this trend: Gen Z ownership has jumped to 32%, up 11% from the previous year.

Meanwhile, Millennials have raked in an average profit of about $12,476 from trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, while Gen Z has seen average gains of $5,373.

The survey, which is the largest of its kind in Australia and run annually for Swyftx, shows a noticeable gap between younger and older Aussies when it comes to crypto ownership.

Many older Aussies are still hesitant, citing a lack of understanding and concerns about regulation as major hurdles.

The survey also suggests that up to 6.4 million Aussies could jump into crypto once the regulatory environment is settled.

“The next big wave of local adoption is almost certainly going to be all about the normalisation of digital assets into mainstream society,” said Swyftx CEO, Jason Titman.

“But until we have a settled policy environment that feels familiar to Australian investors, I do expect adoption to track sideways. It is the calm before the storm.”

Source: <a href="https://stockhead.com.au/news/market-highlights-wall-street-rallies-as-inflation-eases-nvidia-surges-8pc-on-soaring-demand-for-chips/" target="_blank"> Stockhead </a>

Market Highlights: Wall Street rallies as inflation eases; Nvidia surges 8pc on soaring demand for chips

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Can Nvidia's Blackwell chip boon carry its stock forward beyond Trump's bump?

This article was published on November 15, 2024.

Watch For:

U.K. GDP, industrial production; trading update for LandSec

Opening Call:

European stock futures were lower, after Asia stocks broadly fell. The dollar held steady. Gold and oil slipped.

Equities:

European stocks headed for a lower open after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said overnight that the central bank doesn't need to rush to lower its benchmark interest rate.

"The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said at a talk in Dallas on Thursday. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."

To be sure, the Trump trade still dominates news headlines as the president-elect starts building out his cabinet, driving movement in U.S. stocks, bitcoin, bonds and the dollar - but those assets' price actions have become more subdued.

"Now investors are looking back and analyzing what the actual impact of the election is, and they make their time to redo their portfolios and calls with the right sectors and international allocations that they need," said Troy Donohue, head of Americas portfolio trading at BTIG.

"It'll be some time before we see that momentum again, and it'll be more spread out over the coming months," he said.

Data in focus today includes the U.K.'s third-quarter GDP print.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar remains an unabashed beneficiary of Trump's election win - and its relentless rise is causing significant pain for some emerging-market assets and commodities.

"The dollar is overbought and challenging resistance while several metals and emerging markets (EM) are oversold and trying to hold above key support," said Kevin Dempter, analyst at Renaissance Macro Research.

"We'll be watching how they respond to their overbought and oversold conditions closely. A strong response to the overbought condition in the dollar will likely lead to a bullish trend change and vice versa for the metals and EM," he said.

Bonds:

The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield edged higher following fresh comments from Powell that indicated the central bank isn't in a hurry to cut interest rates again.

"The risk appears to be tilting towards a shallower cutting cycle given resilient activity and stubborn inflation," Stephen Juneau, a U.S. economist at Bank of America.

A more gradual pace of rate cuts makes the dollar more valuable against currencies from countries where yields are falling faster, while bond yields reflect investors' expectations for long-term Fed rates.

Energy:

Oil fell amid a softer outlook. The International Energy Agency earlier this week trimmed next year's oil-demand growth estimates, citing the impact of China's economic slowdown on consumption.

Chinese demand continues to underperform despite the country's stimulus measures, said XTB MENA market analyst Milad Azar.

The crude oil market is likely to remain capped for now, unless there is a significant demand rebound, Azar added.

Metals:

Gold edged higher, as investors look ahead to more data releases from the U.S.

The precious metal's outlook remains bearish as markets await the release of retail sales due later today, said Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, adding the December Fed meeting outcome will be key.

Copper rose in Asia after prices dipped overnight. The Chinese market is likely to clear some inventories by the end of the year following recent price drops, Galaxy Futures said.

Prices remain under pressure from a strong dollar and high copper inventory levels globally, it added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

China's Economy Picks Up, but Still Needs More Help

SINGAPORE-China's economy showed signs of improving last month after a blitz of growth-friendly policies from Beijing, but economists say authorities will still need to do more to keep the momentum going now as Donald Trump's re-election raises the specter of a new trade war with the U.S.

Chinese industrial production slowed slightly in October and the real-estate sector remained in a deep slump, data published Friday showed. But retail sales popped higher and investment in buildings, equipment and other fixed assets held steady.

Powell Says Solid Economy Allows Fed to Consider Rate Cuts 'Carefully'

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said recent signs of economic health would allow the central bank to take its time in deciding how quickly to continue reducing interest rates, including by potentially slowing down the pace of cuts.

"The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said at a talk in Dallas on Thursday. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."

Is Trump Really So Great for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is now worth more than any U.S.-listed company other than the six biggest. Dogecoin, created as a joke and the first cryptocurrency to have a government department named after it, would make it to the top 200 stocks by value, larger than Johnson Controls International.

The election lit the rocket that crypto enthusiasts hope will take prices to the moon. They are anticipating that President-elect Donald Trump will follow through on his pledge to defenestrate the anti-crypto chief of Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, ease regulations on crypto-company listings, exchanges, finance and mining, and create a national stash of bitcoin.

Ben & Jerry's Sues Unilever, Alleging It Was Censored Over Gaza

Ben & Jerry's and Unilever are headed back to court.

The ice-cream brand on Wednesday sued its parent company, accusing the consumer-goods giant of silencing its attempts to speak out in support of Palestinians and threatening to dismantle its independent board.

Israeli Forces Push Deeper Into Lebanon in Widening War Campaign

TEL AVIV-Israel is expanding its ground operation in southern Lebanon, sending troops into villages farther from its border, in what some former senior security officials worry could turn into a war of attrition.

On Thursday, Israel's military for the second day in row said its troops were reaching new targets in southern Lebanon. A day earlier, the military announced six soldiers were killed fighting there, in one of the deadliest single incidents for Israeli troops since the start of the ground operation more than a month ago.

Lenovo Builds on AI Momentum With Earnings Beat

Lenovo Group's earnings grew faster than expected, as the world's largest personal-computer maker began to reap benefits from its bets on artificial intelligence, which could drive the next wave of demand for PCs and beyond.

Net profit for the three months ended September rose 44% from a year earlier to $359 million, the PC maker said Friday, marginally beating the estimate of $355 million, according to a FactSet poll of analysts.

Meta Fined $843 Million by EU Over Marketplace Ads Platform

The European Commission fined Meta Platforms the equivalent of around $843 million, saying it tied its classified-ads platform to its flagship social network, undermining competition.

The commission on Thursday fined the Facebook owner 797.7 million euros, saying its practice of linking its classified-ads platform Marketplace to Facebook gives it a significant distribution advantage that competitors can't match.

Source: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20241115000040:0-emea-morning-briefing-investors-parse-powell-s-caution/" target="_blank"> Trading View </a>

This article was published on June 6th, 2024.

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

ECB rate decision; Retail sales data for EU, Italy; Germany manufacturing orders; trading updates from Remy Cointreau, Norwegian Air Shuttle, Finnair Oyj

Opening Call:

Shares may rise in Europe on Thursday. In Asia, stock benchmarks were higher; Treasury yields gained; the dollar weakened; while oil and gold advanced.

Equities:

European stock futures were tracking higher early Thursday amid optimism that global interest-rate cuts could be on the horizon.

The Bank of Canada cut its main interest rate by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, becoming the first Group of Seven central bank to provide rate relief.

Focus today is on the European Central Bank, which is widely expected to deliver its first interest-rate cut since the Covid-19 pandemic unleashed a surge of inflation.

Investors are also looking ahead to the U.S. monthly jobs report on Friday which could provide clues about the strength of the economy and the chances that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates soon.

Tech giants pushed major stock indexes in the U.S. to records Wednesday as investors stuck with a favorite trade.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar weakened on hopes for Fed rate cuts which would bolster appetite for risky assets.

The dollar remains "by a very wide margin" the most used global currency even though its share of global trade and gross domestic has fallen as emerging markets expand and despite attempts by China, Russia and its allies to side-step the U.S. currency, Rabobank said.

"Additionally, the inflation implications of potentially higher trade tariffs on China post the U.S. election suggest that the forthcoming rate cutting cycle from the Fed could be short-lived."

--

The ECB is expected to cut interest rates but uncertainty remains over the outlook, leaving the euro exposed to risks and volatility, DHF Capital said.

"The euro and European treasury yields could be exposed to the downside if the ECB takes a softer stance on its interest rate trajectory."

Furthermore, the payrolls report could strengthen the dollar, sending EUR/USD lower, if jobs growth for May is higher than expected, it added.

Bonds:

Treasury yields gained after finishing lower on Wednesday as traders focused on the possibility that inflation may be starting to ease and global interest-rate cuts could be on the horizon.

On Wednesday, Canada became the first Group-of-Seven country to cut interest rates. The BOC's action is expected to be followed later today by a similar move from the ECB.

Further pressure is expected for yields, says Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities. "A combination of a lukewarm labor report this Friday, and Canada rate cut along with near given ECB rate cut tomorrow will add positive traction in the bond market."

Energy:

Oil gained, rebounding from losses earlier in the week on likely bargain hunting.

"It remains to be seen whether this recovery will last, given ongoing concerns over demand and over the OPEC+ decision to eventually phase out voluntary output cuts at a time when non-OPEC supply is on the rise," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.

Commodity strategists at ING argued that oil's recent slump in prices may have gone too far. "Our balance sheet continues to show a tightening in the oil market over the third quarter. Therefore, we believe the scale of the selloff at the front end of the forward curve is overdone," it said.

Metals:

Gold advanced in Asia, underpinned by prospects for Fed rate cuts driven by U.S. data released overnight. U.S. businesses added 152,000 new jobs in May to mark the smallest increase this year, ADP said.

Fed rate-cut bets lend support to gold, Phillip Nova said adding that market participants await more cues on potential labor-market weakness from nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

--

Copper rose in Asia on hopes for monetary policy easing after the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 bps. ANZ Research analysts expect the ECB to cut rates by 25 bps as well. Lower rates could spur more business activity, boosting demand for materials like copper and softening USD, which also bolsters commodities.

--

Iron ore prices edged higher in a possible technical rebound after a recent drop due to signs of weak demand from China. However, bearish sentiment may persist as the strength of China demand remains uncertain, ANZ research analysts said.


   
 
 
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

ECB Poised to Beat Fed to Rate-Cut Punch. Why the Timing Is Awkward.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to get ahead of the Federal Reserve on Thursday and deliver its first interest-rate cut since the Covid-19 pandemic unleashed a surge of inflation.

It won't be the first central bank to cut since-Canada pulled the trigger on a reduction Wednesday, and Switzerland and Sweden moved earlier this year.


   
 
 
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates to Become First G-7 Central Bank to Ease Policy

OTTAWA-The Bank of Canada cut its main interest rate by a quarter percentage point, becoming the first Group of Seven central bank to provide rate relief after global policymakers aggressively increased borrowing costs to tame inflation.

Canada's central bank said a cut was warranted because officials are now increasingly confident that inflation is moving closer to their 2% target. Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said more rate cuts could be in the offing should inflation show further signs of slowing, though he added the pace of reductions would likely be gradual. He also warned households, businesses and governments that rates are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.


   
 
 
Europe's Ascendant Right-Wing Parties Want to Remake the EU. They Can't Agree How.

Right-wing nationalist parties look set to surge in elections across Europe this week, but the shock wave will travel slowly due to rifts among the political forces.

Many of the parties see former President Donald Trump as a model. They pledge to peel back Brussels' power and shift European Union policy on hot-button issues including migration and climate policies.


   
 
 
Israeli Nationalists, Marching in Jerusalem, Balk at U.S. Cease-Fire Push

JERUSALEM-The marchers waved Israeli flags alongside flags of religious seminaries and banners in support of Donald Trump. Some chanted "Death to Arabs," while others called for tearing down the Al Aqsa Mosque in the heart of this ancient city and rebuilding an ancient Jewish temple in its place.

This year, the young religious nationalists at Israel's annual flag march also called for carrying on the war against Hamas in Gaza, rejecting President Biden's push for a cease-fire that could save some Israeli hostages but might help Hamas to survive.


   
 
 
How Apple Fell Behind in the AI Arms Race

For those who saw them, the demonstrations inside Apple earlier this decade of a revamped Siri offered a showcase of the amazing capabilities a powerful AI voice assistant could have.

The famed assistant, one of the last projects Apple co-founder Steve Jobs worked on before his death, had been given a total overhaul. Capable of running on an iPhone and without an internet connection, the new Siri impressed people with its improved speed, conversational capabilities and the accuracy with which it understood user commands. Code-named Project Blackbird, the effort also imagined a Siri with capabilities built by third-party app developers, according to people familiar with the work.


   
 
 
Nvidia Reaches $3 Trillion Market Value. It's the Latest Sign of Chip Demand.

Nvidia shares hit a historic milestone Wednesday afternoon, closing above $3 trillion in market value for the first time. It's the third U.S. company to do so, after Apple and Microsoft.

Nvidia has benefited from expectations for its next generation of artificial-intelligence chips. Both Tesla and Hewlett Packard Enterprise executives called out the chip maker as the dominant supplier in the AI boom.


   
 
 
Elon Musk's xAI Plans to Build Supercomputer in Memphis

Elon Musk's startup xAI is planning to build a supercomputer in Memphis, Tenn., as the young company races to catch up to rivals that have had yearslong head starts developing generative AI.

Terms weren't disclosed. The amount of the investment is still being finalized, according to Ted Townsend, president of the city's chamber of commerce. The project, which would be housed at an old manufacturing facility, still needs approval of local and regional authorities.


   
 
 
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com


   
 
 
Expected Major Events for Thursday

00:01/IRL: May Ireland Services PMI

05:45/SWI: May Unemployment

06:00/ROM: Apr Retail trade

06:00/GER: Apr Manufacturing orders

06:00/GER: Apr Manufacturing turnover

06:00/FIN: Apr Foreign trade

06:30/HUN: Apr Retail Sales

07:00/SVK: Apr Internal trade, incl Wholesale & Retail

07:00/CZE: Apr External trade

07:00/CZE: Apr Industry, Construction

07:00/SVK: 1Q GDP

07:00/SPN: Apr Industrial Production

07:00/AUT: May Wholesale Price Index

07:00/SPN: 1Q Housing Price Index

08:00/ICE: May External trade, preliminary figures

08:00/ITA: Apr Retail Sales

08:30/UK: May S&P Global UK Construction PMI

09:00/CYP: May CPI

09:00/EU: Apr Retail trade

10:00/IRL: 1Q Balance of Payments

10:00/IRL: 1Q GDP

12:15/EU: ECB interest rate announcement

23:01/UK: CBI Economic Forecast

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

Sources: <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2024060653/emea-morning-briefing-markets-await-widely-expected-ecb-rate-cut" target="_blank"> Morningstar </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/HdeF" target="_blank"> Trading View </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/HdeL" target="_blank"> Market Screener </a>

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EMEA Morning Briefing: Markets Await Widely Expected ECB Rate Cut

**MARKET WRAPS**

**Watch For:**

EU Flash consumer confidence indicator; U.K. Public sector finances; trading updates from Associated British Foods, SEB

**Opening Call:**

European stock futures broadly advanced as technology stocks continue to bolster indexes across the Atlantic. Asian stock benchmarks were mixed; the dollar weakened and Treasury yields were mostly lower; oil futures were mixed and gold gained.

**Equities:**

European stock futures were broadly higher early Tuesday, as investors focus on coming economic data and corporate earnings.

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing at a record high. Investors are watching for the first reading of U.S. fourth-quarter GDP as well as figures on inflation and spending this week.

Stocks may still have more room to rise for the rest of the year, according to Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.

"I think the outlook for this year was still pretty positive, particularly if earnings can grow on a year-over-year basis," Saglimbene said.

However, some others are more skeptical.

"With forward multiples already at historic peaks and earnings forecasts for 12 months forward ambitious, equity-market gains may stall in 2024, as better earnings are met with lower valuation multiples characteristic of a midcycle or soft-landing environment," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management said.

Earlier Tuesday, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rates unchanged as it waits for more solid evidence of improving wage and price trends.

**Forex:**

The dollar weakened slightly but several developed market and emerging market central banks meetings this week, including the European Central Bank, should bring more action to currency markets, said Brown Brothers Harriman's currency analysts.

The euro is likely to stay steady ahead of the European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday but could get something of a boost from interest rates being left unchanged amid recent talk of future rate cuts, said Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital.

Money markets are pricing in the first ECB interest-rate cut in April, according to Refinitiv.

--

The yen weakened after the Bank of Japan maintained its extraordinary easing program earlier Tuesday, which puts downward pressure on the yen.

Investors will be focusing on BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda's press conference later in the day for any cues on any future policy shifts.

**Bonds:**

Treasury yields were broadly lower as markets delayed projections for an initial interest-rate cut by the Fed.

The CME's FedWatch tool prices increasing odds that the Fed will keep rates unchanged next week and in March, with an expectation of a first cut pushed down to May.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast December core annual PCE slowing only slightly, to 3% from November's 3.2%, in data due Friday.

--

High-yield and investment-grade bonds offering yields of around 8% and 5% respectively appear more attractive than equities, CreditSights analysts said adding that in the long-term, U.S. corporate bonds look attractive ahead of the expected interest-rate cuts.

**Energy:**

Oil futures were mixed in a possible technical correction after settling at their highest price levels in around a month.

Prices could get support from geopolitical tensions, analysts said with Saxo Markets' APAC strategy team noting Ukrainian drone attacks against oil facilities on Russia's Baltic coast, and escalating tensions in the Red Sea as the U.S. and U.K. launched fresh strikes against Houthi targets.

**Metals:**

Gold gained early Tuesday. There is strong physical demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, together with signs of speculative buying activity out of China, TD Securities said.

TD Securities' tracking of the top 10 market participants in Shanghai continues to indicate more aggressive buying than would be expected by its tracking of gold withdrawals, signaling some speculative buying, it said.

--

Copper prices were lower in early Asian trading, weighed by the Chinese stock market's selloff a day earlier, Nanhua Futures analysts said.

While China's copper demand is weak amid production halts ahead of Lunar New Year, the overseas market will likely also be tepid in the short term, they said.

--

Iron-ore prices gained in Asia. Demand is rising as the Lunar New Year is approaching, CRU senior analyst Liz Gao said, adding that prices may also be supported by a media report on a potential two trillion yuan stimulus to stabilize the stock market.

However, ANZ Research analysts remain cautious on the outlook with the property sector still showing signs of stress.

Beijing has ordered the most indebted local governments to delay or halt some infrastructure projects, they noted.

Sources: <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2024012348/emea-morning-briefing-stocks-seen-higher-as-investors-parse-econ-data-earnings" target="_blank"> Morningstar </a>

<a href="https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/currency/EURO-ISRAELI-NEW-SHEKEL-E-2363784/news/EMEA-Morning-Briefing-Stocks-Seen-Higher-as-Investors-Parse-Econ-Data-Earnings-45788946/" target="_blank"> MarketScreener </a>

<a href="https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/FTSE/UKX/stock-news/93106636/emea-morning-briefing-stocks-seen-higher-as-inves" target="_blank"> ADVFN </a>

EMEA Morning Briefing: Stocks Seen Higher as Investors Parse Econ Data, Earnings

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EMEA Morning Briefing: Investors Parse Powell's Caution

This article was published on November 7, 2024.

La divisa comunitaria se verá afectada por la incertidumbre arancelaria tras el triunfo de Trump

La aplastante victoria de Donald Trump en las elecciones presidenciales de EEUU ha disparado al dólar frente a casi todas las monedas del mundo. Y de ellas, el euro ha sido la que peor desempeño ha registrado entre las principales divisas. ¿Alcanzará el cable EUR/USD la paridad tras la marea roja que 'invade' al país norteamericano?

"La incertidumbre en torno a las políticas comerciales y las tensiones geopolíticas bajo el gobierno de Trump contribuyen a los temores de perturbaciones en el comercio europeo. Como resultado, la perspectiva a corto plazo del euro podría seguir siendo bajista, y los operadores se muestran cautelosos ante el posible impacto negativo en las perspectivas económicas de la región bajo las nuevas políticas estadounidenses", valora Bas Kooijman, CEO y gestor de activos de DHF Capital SA.

En este sentido, el principal efecto a medio plazo sobre el Viejo Continente es el comercio. Trump ha propuesto un arancel general del 10% sobre las importaciones, lo que se sumaría a "los vientos fiscales y estructurales en contra de la economía de la eurozona y podría recortar al menos 0,2 puntos porcentuales de nuestra previsión de crecimiento del PIB del 1,0% para 2025", señala Thomas Hempell, jefe de análisis de Generali AM, parte de Generali Investments.

Para el experto, a corto plazo, esto se suma a la ya elevada incertidumbre política y a la preocupación por las frágiles esperanzas de recuperación de la zona euro, alimentando las expectativas de nuevos recortes de los tipos de interés por parte del Banco Central Europeo (BCE).

Por otro lado, las presiones inflacionistas en EEUU derivadas de los aranceles harán que la Reserva Federal (Fed) se muestre más cauta a la hora de bajar los tipos el año que viene, lo que mantendrá la brecha de rendimientos frente a sus principales homólogos.

De hecho, desde Lombard Odier prevén que el tipo terminal del BCE se sitúe en el 1,5% o incluso por debajo del 1%, en comparación con el 3,5% del tipo de referencia del banco central estadounidense. "Trump ha vuelto y todo el mundo temía este momento. Está muy claro que este resultado, en términos relativos, no es bueno para los activos europeos", remarca Michael Strobaek, director de inversiones globales de la firma.

"Con la Fed subiendo las tasas o manteniéndolas altas para combatir la inflación justo cuando el BCE continúa bajándolas probablemente a un ritmo acelerado, es factible que el creciente diferencial de tipos de interés pese sobre el euro, posiblemente alcanzando la paridad", dice Georgette Boele, estratega de ABN Amro, quien predijo correctamente que el euro y el dólar alcanzarían ese nivel en 2022.

Del mismo modo, para Hempell "el par EUR/USD seguirá lastrado por el momento y podría caer hasta el rango 1,00-1,05 por el temor a que una guerra comercial ponga en peligro la recuperación de la zona euro, con unos fabricantes que ya luchan contra la pérdida de competitividad, la atonía de la demanda mundial y las desventajas derivadas del elevado coste de la energía".

Una opinión compartida con Chris Turner, responsable de estrategia cambiaria de ING, para quien "los diferenciales de tipos se están ampliando frente al euro y será necesario añadir una nueva prima de riesgo por el proteccionismo y, potencialmente, también por el riesgo geopolítico".

"El nivel de 1,05 dólares parece ser el objetivo inmediato en las próximas semanas, pero es posible que un movimiento hacia la paridad deba esperar hasta finales de 2025, cuando se haga patente toda la fuerza de la oleada proteccionista", agrega.

**¿QUÉ HAY DETRÁS DE LA FORTALEZA DEL DÓLAR?**

Para los analistas de Ebury, este movimiento alcista del dólar estadounidense viene respaldado por tres factores relacionados con el regreso de Trump al Despacho Oval.

En primer lugar, hacen referencia a las propuestas del magnate de "recortes impositivos radicales", que tienen muchas más probabilidades de ser aprobadas con una amplia mayoría republicana. "Se consideran como un impulso al crecimiento a corto plazo de EEUU, al tiempo que conducen a una mayor inflación y, lo más importante para los mercados, tasas de interés más altas de la Fed", afirman.

El segundo factor apunta a que un mayor proteccionismo significa aranceles estadounidenses más altos, particularmente sobre China y Europa. "La implicación aquí es que estos aranceles podrían ser un precursor de un crecimiento global más débil bajo Donald Trump. Este es un escenario en el que los inversores preferirían los activos de menor riesgo, incluido el propio dólar, a expensas de las monedas de mayor riesgo, en particular las que están muy expuestas al ciclo económico mundial".

En tercer aspecto a tener en cuenta es que otro mandato de Trump puede garantizar una mayor incertidumbre geopolítica, lo que tampoco es favorable para el apetito por el riesgo.

Sin embargo, consideran que todavía es muy pronto y que la volatilidad se mantendrá elevada en el mercado de dividas durante las próximas sesiones de negociación. "Esto podría significar una nueva caída en los activos de riesgo y otro episodio de fortaleza del dólar, en particular si la Fed insinúa en las próximas reuniones de política que el resultado de las elecciones puede desacelerar el ritmo del ciclo de recortes", concluyen en Ebury.

Source: <a href="https://www.bolsamania.com/noticias/pulsos-divisas/desplomara-euro-hasta-paridad-dolar-esto-opinan-analistas--17941984.html" target="_blank"> Bolsamania </a>

DHF Capital S.A., institución financiera líder del sector que ofrece una amplia variedad de productos financieros y soluciones de inversión para inversores institucionales y de alto patrimonio neto, se enorgullece de anunciar la celebración de un hito de especial importancia: los cinco años consecutivos de rendimiento mensual positivo de su estrategia Alpha. La estrategia Alpha de DHF Capital ha conseguido retornos positivos durante todos los meses del último lustro. Esto refleja el compromiso de la empresa en ofrecer soluciones de inversión consistentes y fiables incluso en las condiciones de mercado más complejas.

Además del extraordinario éxito de su estrategia Alpha, DHF se complace en informar que sus fondos de alto riesgo DHF Gamma Fund y DHF Forex Fund han conseguido retornos superiores a la media del sector, situada en un 5,7% durante la primera mitad de 2024. Las cifras sectoriales, publicadas recientemente por Goldman Sachs, resaltan el sobresaliente rendimiento de los fondos de DHF Capital en un mercado altamente competitivo.

"Este hito testimonia la solidez de nuestras estrategias de inversión y la experiencia de nuestro equipo", ha declarado Bas Kooijman, consejero delegado y gestor de activos de DHF Capital S.A. "En un entorno de mercado con desafíos continuos, la capacidad de nuestra estrategia Alpha para obtener retornos positivos de manera consistente todos los meses es un claro indicador del valor que aportamos a nuestros inversores. Estamos orgullosos de nuestro trabajo y mantenemos nuestro compromiso de ofrecer a nuestros clientes soluciones financieras innovadoras y resilientes".

El éxito de DHF Capital durante los últimos cinco años pone de relieve su firme dedicación a conseguir resultados excepcionales de inversión para todos sus clientes. La amplia gama de estrategias de inversión que ofrece la empresa, incluyendo los fondos Alpha, Gamma y Forex, continúa satisfaciendo la demanda sofisticada de los inversores institucionales y con alto patrimonio en cualquier parte del mundo.

DHF Capital celebra este logro y sigue trabajando para construir un legado de éxito, ofreciendo productos financieros de vanguardia y soluciones de inversión capaces de aportar valor de forma consistente a sus clientes.

Source: <a href="https://dirigentesdigital.com/funds-markets/gestoras/dhf-capital-celebra-5-anos-de-rendimientos-positivos-de-su-estrategia-alpha/" target="_blank"> Dirigentes Digital </a>

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(ES) DHF Capital celebra 5 años de rendimientos positivos de su estrategia Alpha

Read the article on: <a href="https://www.negociosmagazine.com/el-precio-del-oro-alcanza-maximos-historicos-por-que/" target="_blank"> Ejecutiva Magazine </a>

<a href="https://informacional.es/el-oro-alcanza-cifras-record-nuevos-records-historicos-en-el-precio-del-precioso-metal/" target="_blank"> El Informacional </a>

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(ES) El precio del oro alcanza maximos historicos

(ES) ¿Se desplomará el euro hasta la paridad con el dólar?

This article was published on November 6, 2024.

Financial markets are witnessing major ripples in the wake of Donald Trump’s election as 47th President of the US. The US markets are reacting positively, and oil and gold are taking a hit due to a surging dollar, while Bitcoin hits a record high. 

Though investors do not yet have a clear view of how the markets will react in the immediate future, they are likely to take note of the historical performance of equities when Congress is divided between the parties.

“Historical performance shows that under an all-Republican Congress, the S&P 500 recorded an average year-on-year rise of 13.4%. This is often attributed to a more stable political environment, favouring pro-business policies,” John Plassard, Senior Investment Specialist at wealth management firm Mirabaud, said.

A Trump victory could have a slightly positive impact on economic growth in the short term, but this effect could be quickly cancelled out by imported inflation and tensions over monetary policy, he said. 

Zawya breaks down what a Trump 2.0 presidency means for investors in the Middle East:

**Impact on portfolio growth**

UBS Chief Investment Officer for Global Emerging Markets Michael Bollinger warned that short-term gains following a Trump win could play out different in the medium term.

“A Trump win is perhaps positive for stocks initially, because the risk of regulation on the financial side gets priced out. The risk of tax increases will get priced out. So that’s going to be a positive for earnings expectations,” said Bollinger. “But at the same time, it won’t last for long when the market will start to think very carefully about its potential impact on portfolio growth.”

Stock markets in the GCC rose in early trade on Wednesday following Trump’s victory. While Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index TASI gained 0.9%, Dubai’s DFM gained 0.5%.

Bollinger said a balanced portfolio is key, and GCC investors should consider high-grade bonds and diversify into international portfolios to protect their wealth against medium-term risk.

Select hedges, including exposure to gold and oil, can be used to further protect local assets, he added.

**Bond markets**

The bond market, in contrast, is selling off sharply, with 10-year Treasury yields approaching 4.50%, said the Franklin Templeton Institute.

“Bond investors are reacting to the probability that tax cuts will not be accompanied by significant spending restraint. The bond market also anticipates stronger growth and possibly higher inflation. That combination could slow or even halt anticipated Fed rate cuts,” they said.

With a Trump victory and a Republican control, yields could have further upside, especially if post-election stimulus take shape in early-2025, added Swiss bank UBP.

“While election results dominate investor attention, the upcoming Fed meeting starting today should not be overlooked. This event could introduce two-way volatility in the near-term into bond markets not only related to the 50 bps in rate cuts still expected by markets through year-end, but also surrounding the prospect of an end to quantitative tightening,” UBP said.

“Moreover, with the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meetings ongoing this week, the risk of China stimulus adding an additional catalyst to global as well as US bond yields compounds the challenges facing bond investors.”

Replicating the 2016 post-election rally, S&P futures rose by 1.3% overnight. As higher bond yields to begin to bite for equities, equity investors should similarly focus on risk management amidst elevated valuations and optimistic earnings expectations moving into 2025, said UBP.

**Futures**

According to Franklin Templeton Institute, US equity futures markets are responding favourably to a Trump presidency.

“US equity futures have risen over 1%, with a larger gain from the broader Russell 2000 futures index. The biggest winners will be sectors and industries welcoming a more business-friendly regulatory environment, including fossil fuel energy companies, financial services, and smaller capitalisation companies. Fears of caps on prescription drug prices will recede, boosting the fortunes of the pharma sector,” said the institute.

**Dollar gains**

The US dollar has surged, boosted by the combination of higher US bond yields and the anticipation of strong inflows into US public and private equity markets.

“US yields have traded sharply higher, and the dollar has gained, especially against the Mexican Peso and Japanese Yen. Attention will quickly turn to the Federal Reserve’s rate setting meeting on Thursday. Another 0.25% cut to the base rate is priced in, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be pressed for a reaction to a Trump regime and foreseeing the implication on interest rates into next year,” said Neal Keane, Head of Global Sales Trading at ADSS.

**Crude prices**

The impact of a strengthening dollar and an unexpected rise in US crude inventories also resulted in a decline in oil futures on Wednesday, following two days of gains.

Projections of Trump’s victory in the US presidential election led to an increase in the dollar and weighed on oil prices.

“While Trump’s return could lead to tighter sanctions on Iranian oil, offering short-term support, his focus on ramping up domestic oil production could weigh on global oil demand over the longer term, especially as trade tensions with China might intensify, further pressuring demand,” said Terence Hove Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to online trading platform Exness.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed a larger-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, suggesting lower demand. These factors combine to create a bearish near-term outlook for global crude prices, as the stronger dollar and growing stockpiles suggest a possible slowdown in demand, Hove added.

**Gold**

Gold prices dropped from 2740 to 2701 dollar per oz after reaching a record high in late October as it faces a strengthening dollar.

“With the greenback continuing its upward momentum, gold could face downside risks over the near-term,” said Bas Kooijman is the CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A. “Despite gold trading lower in the early European session, a confirmed Trump win could potentially drive-up demand for the metal, particularly amid potential political and economic instability.”

**Crypto investments**

Bitcoin reached record highs of $75,000 as traders bet on a Trump victory.

“Trump trades have been all the rage - crypto has been on fire, with Bitcoin hitting a record high, with huge USD buying interest playing out, with the USD index at one stage rising by the most since March 2020, driven by EURUSD breaking to 1.0719 and USDJPY into 154, with even greater percentage changes in the higher beta plus – MXN, PLN, ZAR, and AUD,” said Chris Weston Head of Research at trading brokerage Pepperstone.

With a pro-crypto administration this brings $100k Bitcoin into play through the year end and Q1 of 2025.

**US Economy**

A Republican sweep both houses of Congress and the White House will result in markets expecting a more “high-octane US economy”, with growth above potential and inflation above the Federal Reserve’s target, according to Samy Chaar, Chief Economist and CIO Switzerland, Lombard Odier.

Interest rates are then likely to be higher than pre-election expectations, with the question of tariffs key for global trade and the Fed’s easing prospects.

“This has major implications for financial markets. The macroeconomic fundamentals remain a tailwind for investments. We see high-yield credit and gold performing well. Global equities, including US stocks, also have potential to rise in the next 12 months, as earnings expand, and margins remain high,” said Chaar. “In the US market, financials, tech and defense should perform well under a Trump administration.”

However, Trump’s reduction in taxation and increased military spending could significantly increase sovereign debt, providing headwinds in the US treasury markets as investors grow weary of ballooning national debt.

Source: <a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/gcc/what-trump-20-would-mean-for-investors-in-the-middle-east-rmk5gz8n" target="_blank"> Zawya </a>

Sovereign wealth funds have reportedly become major players in the artificial intelligence (AI) funding race.

Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are turning to AI projects as a way to diversify their economies, CNBC reported Sunday (Sept. 22).

In the last year, funding for AI firms from these oil-rich nations’ wealth funds have grown fivefold, the report added, citing Pitchbook data.

MGX, an AI fund from the UAE, is among the investors looking to take part in OpenAI’s latest fundraising effort, which is believed to value the company at $150 billion, sources told CNBC.

As the report noted, most venture capital (VC) funds can’t afford to compete with tech giants such as Amazon and Microsoft when it comes to funding AI projects.

Sovereign wealth funds, however, have no such trouble, as their governments are flush with cash thanks to rising energy prices. The total wealth of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ is expected to reach $3.5 trillion by 2026, CNBC said, citing data from Goldman Sachs.

Meanwhile, another UAE firm, Mubadala, has also invested in OpenAI rival Anthropic, and is one of the most active venture investors, with eight AI deals in the past four years, the report said. Sources told CNBC Anthropic said it would not take money from the Saudis in its last funding round, citing national security concerns.

PYMNTS examined AI’s potential to transform the Middle East in a report earlier this year.

“Successful AI development efforts could not only lead to a wave of local creativity and innovation such as new startups, and attracting generation of students to the field, but could spread the resulting prosperity across the region, countering local disbalances and democratizing the knowledge economy to attract the brightest minds,” geopolitical analyst Irina Tsukerman said in an interview for that report.

And efforts like Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, boasting over $900 billion in assets, is working to establish itself as a global AI leader, Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, told PYMNTS in an interview.  

“The fund could spur innovation, attract global tech partnerships, and accelerate AI adoption across various industries within the region, contributing significantly to Saudi Arabia’s GDP,” he added.

Source: <a href="https://www.pymnts.com/artificial-intelligence-2/2024/ai-startups-find-financing-pipeline-in-middle-eastern-sovereign-wealth-funds/" target="_blank"> PYMNTS </a>

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AI Startups Find Financing Pipeline in Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Funds

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What Trump 2.0 would mean for investors in the Middle East

The podcast aired on November 19, 2024.

Meet Bas—a man who truly does it all. From excelling in trading, finance, and programming to staying fit through sports and marathon running, and embracing his role as a devoted family man, Bas is the epitome of a high achiever. But with such a packed life comes the inevitable challenge of managing mental stress.

In today’s episode, we uncover how Bas navigates the demands of his multifaceted life while staying grounded and thriving under pressure. Tune in to gain valuable insights, practical tips, and a behind-the-scenes look at how he balances it all.

Watch <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj8pj9Ij4DI" target="_blank"> The Helply Podcast </a>

In this podcast, Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital, talks about the impact of artificial intelligence. Based in Luxembourg, DHF has been making tailored financial products for institutional clients, as well as managing its own hedge fund strategies.

This podcast discusses some of the big changes in financial markets at the moment, including the forex and commodity markets and the international demand for gold. Bas also talks about portfolio strategy including diversification and hedging.

Of particular interest are his views about artificial intelligence and its impact on financial markets. He explains how DHF has been using AI within its own trading strategies for some years now. Bas explains that investors and traders need to exercise some caution when making use of AI tools and touches on some of the likely outcomes within markets as AI tech becomes more widely available. The wider impact of AI on society and the global economy is also discussed.

Listen to the podcast on [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2nRHij87Oo).

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Podcast: How will AI impact the financial markets?

This podcast was published on June 4th, 2024.

Welcome to the latest episode of Cheque Point by Finance Middle East!

In this episode, Nivetha Dayanand, Editor of Finance Middle East, speaks with Bas Kooijman, Financial Asset Manager and CEO of DHF Capital S.A. about AI in investing.

The podcast offers insights into the challenges and opportunities associated with integrating AI into the investment process, as well as the potential for AI to revolutionize decision-making in asset
management.

Listen on <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/6wlI6ETUotu4CBPCvcTPcC?si=mDisKcHETgKFApJUhiER2Q&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A6pOUmraEsNSSWEK3bkKtLG&nd=1&dlsi=5bc610e131a2478c" target="_blank"> Spotify </a>

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AI in investing: podcast

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Bas’s Story; A Deep Dive into Balance and Resilience

DHF Capital – a leading securitisation firm operating in the UAE, Lithuania, Luxembourg, United Kingdom, and the Netherlands – is pleased to welcome Roma Kestaviciene as its new Chief Operating Officer (COO). With over a decade of experience in financial operations, Anti-Money Laundering (AML), and compliance, Roma brings a wealth of expertise to DHF Capital. Moreover, Roma’s appointment as COO marks a notable milestone for DHF; the company has filled out its senior management team to accelerate growth and continue delivering exceptional results for its clients and stakeholders.

Roma began her career in the financial sector in 2011, dedicating the past seven years to leadership roles. Most recently, she served as First Vice President at Danske Bank, where she managed a department of over 200 employees and spearheaded various initiatives to enhance AML processes. Her focus on streamlining operations and improving customer onboarding processes has earned her a reputation as a forward-thinking and results-driven leader. As COO of DHF Capital, Roma will oversee the company’s day-to-day operations, refine operational models, and lead the integration of KYC/AML, client services, and back-office functions.

Commenting on her new role, Roma stated: “*Joining DHF Capital marks an exciting chapter for me. . With a proven track record, the firm stood out as an ideal opportunity to broaden my horizons, dive deeper into the investment field, and apply my operational expertise. I look forward to collaborating with the diverse and growing team, as well as existing and new clientele, while contributing to the DHF’s continued success.*”

Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital, expressed enthusiasm for Roma’s appointment: “*We are thrilled to welcome Roma to the DHF Capital family. Her proven leadership and extensive experience in the global financial sector make her an invaluable addition to our team and an ideal fit for our firm’s growth trajectory. As we enter 2025 and beyond, her expertise will be pivotal in refining our operational frameworks, ensuring we remain agile and responsive to industry changes, and maintaining exceptional client satisfaction in the UAE and GCC. Her appointment signals a bright future for DHF Capital, and I look forward to achieving new heights together.*”

Roma’s appointment comes at a transformative time for DHF Capital. With 60 months of consecutive returns under its belt, the firm continues to attract HNWIs and UHNWIs, particularly in the UAE, which is home to more than 116,500 millionaires, 20 billionaires, and 308 centi-millionaires1. Many of these investors are seeking portfolio diversification. In her role as COO, Roma will work closely with global teams to align operations with strategic goals and regulatory frameworks, ensuring DHF Capital remains a trusted leader in wealth creation. Her expertise reinforces the company’s commitment to innovation and delivering consistent, industry-leading results for its clients and stakeholders.

Sources: <a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/people-in-the-news/dhf-capital-strengthens-leadership-team-with-roma-kestaviciene-as-coo-pusjd4tg" target="_blank"> Zawya </a>

<a href="link" target="_blank"> Mid East Information </a>

<a href="https://www.businessnewse.com/2024/11/25/dhf-capital-strengthens-leadership-team-with-roma-kestaviciene-as-coo/" target="_blank"> Business News </a>

DHF Capital S.A. the Luxembourg-headquartered securitization company is proud to announce the appointment of Philippe Schneider as its New Global Head of Sales. Schneider, a seasoned sales and business development expert is poised to lead DHF Capital’s global salesforce team. With over 20 years of experience in sales leadership and a track record of driving growth and profitability, he brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the international investment house.

Philippe Schneider has held various leadership positions in Swiss-, German-, and international companies, specializing in building and leading sales personnel, developing and executing sales strategies, and expanding market presence and revenue streams. His key areas of expertise include sales leadership, performance, and innovation.

"*I am excited to join DHF Capital and contribute to its continued success,*" said Philippe Schneider. He states DHF Capital’s passion for finance and its commitment to delivering quality as the primary reasons for joining this company: “*DHF Capital has a strong reputation for providing tailored financial solutions, and I look forward to leading our sales team to deliver exceptional results and value to our investors and stakeholders.*"

He continued to say: "*I am dedicated to driving growth and innovation at DHF Capital. By leveraging technology and focusing on delivering value to our clients, I am confident that we can achieve our sales targets and position DHF Capital as a trusted partner in the financial services industry*."

Bas Kooijman, DHF Capital’s CEO and Asset Manager, expresses his excitement about Philippe’s appointment: "*Philippe Schneider will bring exceptional value to our team*.” He continued with illustrating this point: "*His extensive experience and proven leadership skills make him the perfect fit to lead our sales function and drive our strategic initiatives forward. As we continue to expand our global footprint and seek new opportunities for growth, Philippe Schneider will play a pivotal role in shaping our sales strategies and ensure that we deliver exceptional value to our clients. With his expertise and dedication, I am confident that DHF Capital will continue to thrive and solidify its position as a leader in the financial services industry.*"

In his new role, Schneider will be responsible for overseeing and managing the entire sales function of DHF Capital, including setting and implementing sales goals and strategies, leading and coaching salesforce teams, developing and maintaining relationships with clients and stakeholders, and ensuring sales quality and compliance.

Source: <a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/people-in-the-news/dhf-capital-welcomes-philippe-schneider-as-new-global-head-of-sales-vmqzl1z1" target="_blank"> Zawya </a>

DHF Capital welcomes Philippe Schneider as new Global Head of Sales

Global - DHF Capital S.A., a premier securitization company based in Luxembourg, is pleased to announce the appointment of Erik Boekel as its new Chief Commercial Officer (CCO). With a distinguished career spanning over 25 years in Corporate and Investment Banking, Global Markets, and Treasury, Erik brings a wealth of expertise to DHF Capital, further strengthening its position as a leader in providing financial products and investment solutions tailored to institutional and high-net-worth individual (HNWI) investors.

Erik Boekel's extensive professional background encompasses multifaceted regional responsibilities across Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, predominantly within large regulated, listed International Financial Institutions and Corporates. His versatile experience as both an intrapreneur and entrepreneur underscores his adaptability and innovative thinking in navigating complex and multicultural environments, resulting in the establishment of profitable ventures that capitalize on unique market dynamics.

Commenting on Erik Boekel's appointment, Bas Kooijman, CEO and Founder of DHF Capital S.A., remarked:

"We are delighted to welcome Erik Boekel to DHF Capital as our new Chief Commercial Officer. Erik's remarkable track record of success and his deep understanding of the intricacies of global financial markets make him an invaluable addition to our leadership team. His extensive experience in building and leading diverse teams to achieve collective goals aligns perfectly with DHF Capital's commitment to excellence and innovation. With Erik's leadership, we are confident in our ability to further enhance our suite of financial products and investment solutions, delivering exceptional value to our institutional and HNWI clients."

Erik Boekel expressed his enthusiasm about joining DHF Capital, stating:

"I am honoured to join DHF Capital at such an exciting time in its evolution. The company's reputation for excellence and its dedication to providing bespoke financial solutions and wealth management to its astute client base align closely with my own professional values. I look forward to collaborating with the talented team at DHF Capital to drive growth, innovation, and client success. Together, we will leverage our collective expertise to unlock new opportunities and further solidify DHF Capital's position as a trusted partner in the financial industry."

As DHF Capital S.A. continues to expand its footprint and enhance its offerings, Erik Boekel's appointment underscores the company's commitment to delivering superior value and service to its clients.

Sources: <a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/people-in-the-news/dhf-capital-sa-appoints-erik-boekel-as-chief-commercial-officer-cvm0mkxu" target="_blank"> Zawya </a>

<a href="https://menafn.com/1108188818/DHF-Capital-SA-Appoints-Erik-Boekel-as-Chief-Commercial-Officer" target="_blank"> Mena FN </a>

<a href="https://menafn.com/arabic/1108188819/%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D8%A5%D8%AA%D8%B4-%D8%A5%D9%81-%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A5%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83-%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%84-%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B0%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%A4%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9" target="_blank"> Mena FN Arabic </a>

<a href="https://carnews2day.com/?p=129957" target="_blank"> Car News 2 Day </a>

<a href="https://nabd-alhadath.com/archives/50903" target="_blank"> nabd-alhadath.com </a>

DHF Capital S.A. appoints Erik Boekel as Chief Commercial Officer

DHF Capital strengthens leadership team with Roma Kestaviciene as COO

On November 14, Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager at DHF Capital, appeared on CNBC Arabia to discuss the current dynamics in the gold market.

In this interview, Bas highlighted an 8% decline in prices over two weeks and attributing the movement to post-election market adjustments and the strengthening U.S. dollar. He emphasized that gold prices are likely to be influenced by geopolitical tensions in Gaza and central bank decisions to increase gold reserves. Additionally, he highlighted Tesla’s significant stock gains, suggesting that in the current climate, gold may offer a safer investment alternative to high-risk assets.

Watch here: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4E78klnIV8" target="_blank"> YouTube </a>

Bas Kooijman's interview for our arabic audience.

DHF Capital's CEO and Asset Manager, Bas Kooijman, appeared on Sky News Arabia where he talked about Federal Reserve interest rates cuts, the gold market and the U.S. financial markets.

Watch full video on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akIeQTopU8" target="_blank"> YouTube </a>

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(AR) Bas Kooijman's interview on Sky News Arabia: Financial Markets

DHF Capital's CEO and Asset Manager, Bas Kooijman, appeared on Sky News Arabia where he talked about the current gold market. 

He noted that gold faced a downturn on Monday, January 8, 2024 with its price falling 0.79% to $2,022. He also highlighted physical gold as a safe haven and expressed the importance of having physical gold as an asset. In addition, he underscored the importance of physical gold as a safe haven asset and mentioned that gold is currently a relatively stable market.

Watch on: <a href="https://youtu.be/8Q61kCHEVfs" target="_blank"> YouTube </a>

(AR) Bas Kooijman's interview on Sky News Arabia: Gold market news

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(AR) Bas Kooijman on CNBC Arabia: Current dynamics in the gold market

Gold continues to decline for the fifth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level since early September. Elevated yields and a stronger U.S. dollar weigh on gold prices, both of which have strengthened in the wake of Trump’s victory. The Trump administration’s focus on significant economic growth, tax cuts, and increased tariffs could spur inflation and potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to exercise caution in its easing cycle and rate cut projections.

In the near term, the outlook for gold remains bearish as markets await the release of PPI data and weekly jobless claims, followed by retail sales data on Friday, which could further influence sentiment, particularly regarding the December Fed meeting.

Looking ahead, gold could retain potential for recovery over the medium and long term due to concerns over fiscal deficits and trade tensions in addition to geopolitical tensions, which could elevate uncertainties and drive demand for safe-haven assets.

Source: <a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/gold-dips-on-rising-yields-markets-reassess-monetary-policy-direction/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

Gold prices are rising to unprecedented levels, supported by central bank purchases as well as geopolitical concerns and monetary policy expectations. The upward momentum was sustained by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, although optimism was tempered by recent US nonfarm payroll and inflation data. Looking forward, market participants are anticipating the release of key US inflation figures and the minutes from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday to gauge the likelihood, timing, and amplitude of interest rate reductions by the Fed. The data could introduce volatility to the precious metals market. Central bank purchases, especially by China, remain a major supporting factor for gold, with other emerging markets institutions such as the Indian central bank also bolstering their reserves of the yellow metal. Despite reaching peak levels, gold prices remain supported by solid demand, evidenced by rising net long positions. However, following its strong surge, gold could be exposed to price corrections over the short term in particular if Wednesday's US data comes in stronger than expected.

Sources: <a href="https://www.investorideas.com/news/2024/mining/04092MarketAnalysis-Gold-Prices.asp" target="_blank"> Investorideas.com </a>

<a href="https://londonlovesbusiness.com/central-banks-drive-gold-prices-to-record-highs-amidst-uncertainty/" target="_blank"> London Loves Business </a>

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Central Banks Drive Gold Prices to Record Highs Amidst Uncertainty

This article was published on December 4th, 2023.

In early Asia-Pacific trading on Monday, COMEX gold futures stood above the $2,150 per ounce mark, continuing to hit a record high, while spot gold short-term also soared to $2,144 per ounce, refreshing the all-time high set in May this year.

In addition to gold, other precious metals also rose: COMEX silver at $26.06 an ounce, up 0.79%, close to a six-month high, NYMEX platinum at $946, up 1.06%, close to a new high of about a year, and NYMEX palladium rose 0.55% to $1,016 an ounce.

Market analysts believe that the biggest driver behind this round of gold price breakthrough may be the bet on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and other factors that push up include geopolitical factors, ultra-strong buying by global central banks, etc. Looking ahead, analysts believe that gold will still be able to maintain its rally next year, and even not only gold, the market will usher in a wave of cross-asset rallies in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.

What's driving it?

Prior to this breakout, gold had been consolidating for three years, and this was the third attempt in three years to hit $2,100 an ounce. A series of recent U.S. economic data releases have been weaker than analysts expected, and inflationary pressures have continued to ease, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve has ended its interest rate hike cycle and will start cutting interest rates next year.

The ISM manufacturing index in the United States in November was 46.7, with an expectation of 47.6 and a previous value of 46.7, unchanged from October and lower than market expectations. Kaiyuan Securities said that the two major PMI systems gave a PMI lower than the boom and bust line for the U.S. manufacturing industry in November, further increasing the market's expectation that the Fed's current interest rate hike cycle has ended, and even may start to cut interest rates as soon as March 2024, so gold prices have been supported.

Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com Melbourne, also said: "The market is betting heavily on the Fed to cut interest rates. And gold prices will also move higher when there are early signs of a recession. This will push the price of gold to continue to rise. ”

UBS expects gold to hit new highs in 2024 and 2025 due to Fed rate cut expectations and falling real interest rates. UBS believes that the Fed will cut rates in the first quarter of 2024, and if it pauses in December this year, this will continue to confirm the Fed's preference to cut rates around 6 months after the last increase. UBS observed the performance of gold after the Fed's previous rate hike cycles and found that gold prices tend to fall by 2% or so in the last 3 months or so after the end of previous rate hike cycles, but will rise by 7% in the next 6 months.

In addition, UBS also said that real interest rates are also a major driver of gold prices. Although the degree of correlation between the two will change over time, there is always an asymmetry in the relationship. UBS found that for every 100 basis point decline in the 10-year Treasury real rate, gold would rise by 11%, but at the same rate of gain, gold would fall by only 4.2%. Based on this, UBS believes that gold rebounds more when interest rates fall than when interest rates rise. Gold's sensitivity to real yields has declined this year relative to historical levels, but this asymmetry remains, making gold an attractive alternative outside of the bond space, and it is expected to continue to benefit if real interest rates fall in the year ahead. UBS also found that when real interest rates fall below 1.25% and continue to fall, gold prices rise even more, reaching 14%.

In addition, geopolitical factors are also pushing gold prices higher in the short term. For example, fears of further tensions in the Middle East are rapidly rising, and the resulting safe-haven buying has provided support to gold prices.

Bas Kooijman, chief executive of DHF Capital and asset manager, said the escalation "helped extend the upward trend in gold over the past two months" as the market reacted to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, he said that traders have also been betting on the end of the rate hike cycle and the possibility of a rate cut in the first half of next year, which could continue to support the rally in gold prices in the medium term.

In addition, global central banks are also continuing to buy gold, which also has a supporting effect on gold prices. According to data released by the World Gold Council, global central banks bought 337t of gold in the third quarter of 2023, the third highest quarterly net purchase on record, and in the first three quarters of this year, global central bank demand increased by 14% year-on-year to a record 800t.

UBS said that while these gold flows are unlikely to drive price increases on their own, they will continue to play a key role in holding the market up and supporting the overall upward trend.

Can the cross-asset rally be sustained?

In fact, the rally is by no means limited to gold. As traders widely believe that the Fed's current interest rate hike cycle is over, global stock and bond markets have also collectively soared since November. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% last week to close at its highest level since March 2022. The Dow Jones also rose sharply 2.4% last week, moving higher for the fifth straight week and its longest winning streak since late 2021. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.225%, its lowest level since early September. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is most sensitive to interest rate expectations, posted its biggest weekly drop last week since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Bitcoin also hit $40,000 today for the first time since May 2022.

At the moment, there seems to be a consensus in the market that interest rate cuts will be the only matter of when, and how much, will be divided. If the Fed does cut interest rates as soon as March next year and then proceeds with more quantitative easing, analysts expect all assets to hit record highs.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent statement that the Fed's policy setting "has penetrated deep into restrictive territory, implying tight monetary policy" is slowing economic activity, his strongest signal to date that the current rate hike cycle is over. But Powell's comments were also cautious, saying that "it is too early to confidently conclude that we have taken a sufficiently restrictive stance." But regardless of whether Powell is sending a "dovish" or "hawkish" signal, the market seems willing to interpret it as "dovish". After Powell's speech, the rally in Treasury yields lasted only a few seconds before continuing to fall. COMEX gold futures then rose to a record high on Friday.

From the perspective of the pricing of the interest rate market, at the point of interest rate cut, the market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in May next year, and the betting probability of a rate cut in March next year has exceeded 50%. In terms of the magnitude of rate cuts, the current market expectation is that the Fed will cut rates by at least 125 basis points next year, which is equivalent to five 25 basis point rate cuts, a bet that seems to have paved the way for a further decline in Treasury yields and a continued rebound in equities, bonds and commodity markets.

It is also worth mentioning that at the moment the market is not only betting on the Fed to cut interest rates. According to market participants on interest rate swap contracts, traders have fully priced in the timing of the first rate cuts by many other central banks. Specifically, the market is betting that the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates for the first time in December next year, the Federal Reserve in May next year, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England in June next year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in August next year, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in December next year.

Quincy Krosby, an analyst at LPL Financial, said: "While both the Fed's doves and hawks seem to revolve around a more 'cautious' approach to policy and acknowledge that policy is still appropriate, the market clearly disagrees. She said the market's belief that the Fed made a dovish decision in November and will begin a rate-cutting cycle by mid-2024 (or even earlier) refuted the slogan that rates are "higher and longer".

However, some institutions are worried that the "dovish" bet will be frustrated again. According to Deutsche Bank, this bet is the seventh time in this tightening cycle that market participants have bet on the Fed to turn "dovish", and the previous six have ended in failure.

Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP, wrote in a note to clients: "The sharp rally in U.S. equities has left them technically overbought and at risk of a correction or short-term pullback." But he also admitted that "as inflation continues to ease, U.S. stocks are likely to rise further towards the end of this year and early next year," and that the seasonal tailwinds for the market will begin to show later this month.

This week, a series of economic data will test the market again, especially Friday's non-farm payrolls data. Economists polled by the media expect new nonfarm payrolls to rise to 200,000 in November from 150,000 in the previous month as workers from previous strikes return to work. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.9%, while wage growth is expected to slow slightly to 4%.

Sources: <a href="https://www.laitimes.com/en/article/661d4_6mdo5.html" target="_blank"> LaiTimes </a>

<a href="https://www.tellerreport.com/business/2023-12-04-gold-prices-hit-a-record-high-after-three-years-of-consolidation!-what-s-driving-it-.ryZAsngiBT.html" target="_blank"> Teller Report </a>

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Gold prices hit record highs after three years of consolidation!

Gold dips on rising yields, markets reassess monetary policy direction

Door Bas Kooijman, CEO en vermogensbeheerder, DHF Capital SA

De Amerikaanse aandelen schoten deze week omhoog na de positieve respons van investeerders op de overwinning van de Republikeinen in zowel het Congres als het Witte Huis. Deze zogenaamde "red sweep" zorgde voor een optimistische stemming, doordat het komende beleid naar verwachting gunstig zal uitpakken voor de bedrijfsgroei door belastingverlagingen, minder strenge regels en andere economische stimulansen. 

De grootste stijging van deze week, namelijk 8,57%, was te zien in de small-cap Russell 2000 Index, hoewel die nog wel 2,41% achterblijft bij het record van november 2021. De S&P 500 Index steeg met 4,66% en beleefde daarmee de beste week van het jaar. Beleggers laten met dit enthousiasme zien dat ze meer winst verwachten en hopen dat veranderingen in het fiscale beleid stimulerend zullen werken op economische expansie.

De Chief U.S. Economist van T. Rowe Price, Blerina Uruçi, bood tijdens een webinar die onlangs gehouden werd een inkijk in de mogelijke economische gevolgen van een regering onder leiding van Trump. Ze wees erop dat de voorgestelde beperkingen op immigratie en verhoogde tarieven zouden kunnen leiden tot meer inflatiedruk, hoewel het nog niet duidelijk is hoe een dergelijk beleid precies zal uitpakken. Uruçi merkte ook op dat een sterkere dollar het inflatoire effect zou kunnen opvangen, vooral als die gepaard gaat met belastingverlagingen en versoepeling van de regelgeving die onder de nieuwe regering worden verwacht. Op korte termijn zou dat een netto positief effect kunnen hebben op de economische groei.

Verder kondigde de Federal Reserve deze week een renteverlaging van 25 basispunten aan; de eerste sinds half september. Deze verlaging is bedoeld om de economische stabiliteit te handhaven ten tijde van politieke veranderingen. Daarbij sprak Fed-voorzitter Jerome Powell geruststellende woorden door erop te wijzen dat de beslissingen van de Fed onafhankelijk zullen blijven. Powell benadrukte dat de Fed ernaar streeft om beleidswijzigingen strikt te baseren op economische gegevens en wilde niet speculeren over mogelijke gevolgen van de verwachte fiscale maatregelen. Op de Amerikaanse obligatiemarkt was sprake van tegengestelde bewegingen als reactie op deze gebeurtenissen. De rente op schatkistpapier viel deze week lager uit en de verlaging van de rente was van invloed op de opbrengsten op middellange en lange termijn.

Op de Europese aandelenmarkten waren de resultaten deze week minder positief en de pan-Europese STOXX Europe 600 Index eindigde 0,84% lager. Het beleggerssentiment werd getemperd door bezorgdheid over mogelijke verschuivingen in het Amerikaanse handelsbeleid die wel eens negatief zou kunnen uitwerken op de Europese economische groei. De belangrijke indices in de regio, waaronder de Italiaanse FTSE MIB (-2,48%), de Franse CAC 40 (-0,95%) en de Duitse DAX (-0,21%), daalden als gevolg van de onzekerheid over Amerikaanse tarieven en wijzigingen in het handelsbeleid. De Europese centrale banken namen ook belangrijke beleidsmaatregelen in reactie op vertragende groei en inflatie. De Bank of England (BoE) verlaagde haar basisrente met 0,25 procentpunt naar 4,75%. Gouverneur Andrew Bailey van de BoE waarschuwde ervoor dat deze nog meer kan worden verlaagd als de economische cijfers verder verslechteren. Ook de Zweedse Riksbank verlaagde haar basisrente naar 2,75% in reactie op een stagnerende economie en een vertragende inflatie en wees op dezelfde mogelijkheid.

In de eurozone betekende de herziene index van inkoopmanagers (PMI) voor oktober, met een lichte stijging naar 50 ten opzichte van een eerste schatting van 49,7, gemengd nieuws. Volgens deze herziening was er sprake van stagnering van de economische activiteit in plaats van een daling. De dienstensector maakte een bescheiden groei door, terwijl de verwerkende industrie langzamer kromp dan verwacht. Toch blijkt uit het ondernemersvertrouwen, dat in de hele eurozone is gedaald naar het laagste niveau van het jaar, dat onzekerheid overheerst.

Op de Aziatische markten, met Japan en China in het middelpunt, waren de trends gemengd maar over het algemeen positief. De Japanse Nikkei 225- en de TOPIX-indexen stegen respectievelijk met 3,8% en 3,7% en het beleggerssentiment werd gestimuleerd door de renteverlaging van de Fed en de hoop op stabiliteit in de handel tussen de VS en Japan. Ondanks enige onzekerheid door de sterkere yen gaf Atsushi Mimura, de Chief Currency Official van Japan, aan dat de overheid maatregelen wil nemen in verband met de marktvolatiliteit. Analisten verwachten dat de Bank of Japan (BoJ) al in januari 2025 met een verhoging van de rente komt, na aanwijzingen dat de economische activiteit verdere aanscherping kan rechtvaardigen.

Uit de economische cijfers uit Japan blijkt terughoudendheid, aangezien de reële lonen in september op jaarbasis 0,1% lager uitvielen, nadat ze eerder, in augustus, al met 0,8% waren gedaald. Ondanks een nominale loonstijging van 2,8% kon deze de inflatie van 2,9% niet bijhouden, waardoor gezinnen 1,1% minder te besteden hebben, en dat terwijl een daling van 2,1% werd verwacht. Deze cijfers geven aan dat het moeilijk blijft om de binnenlandse vraag te stimuleren, ook al zijn de ontwikkelingen over de hele wereld gunstig voor de Japanse export.

In China stegen de aandelenmarkten nadat er nieuwe stimuleringsmaatregelen waren aangekondigd die tot doel hebben de schulden van lokale overheden te beheersen. De Shanghai Composite Index steeg met 5,51% en de CSI 300 met 5,5%. Dat duidt erop dat men verwacht dat deze inspanningen de financiële risico's zullen beperken. Het hoogste wetgevende orgaan van China, het permanente comité van het Nationale Volkscongres, lanceerde een herfinancieringsprogramma van 10 biljoen RMB voor lokale schulden en verhoogde het schuldplafond tot 35,52 biljoen RMB. De Minister van Financiën, Lan Fo'an, beloofde meer fiscale steun om de economische groei in 2025 te bevorderen, in deze tijd van wereldwijde onzekerheden.

Samenvattend kunnen we stellen dat de wereldwijde markten zich aanpassen aan belangrijke politieke veranderingen en de publicatie van economische gegevens en dat beleggers de mogelijke gevolgen van beleidswijzigingen in de VS nauwlettend in de gaten houden.

Source: <a href="https://www.financialinvestigator.nl/en/research-detailpagina/2024/11/11/dhf-capital-wereldwijde-markten-passen-zich-aan" target="_blank"> Financial Investigator </a>

This article was published on August 22nd, 2024.

DHF Capital SA, een toonaangevende financiële instelling gevestigd in Luxemburg die een breed scala aan financiële producten en beleggingsoplossingen aanbiedt voor institutionele en welgestelde particuliere beleggers (HNWI), kondigt met trots de viering van een belangrijke mijlpaal aan: vijf opeenvolgende jaren van positieve maandelijkse rendementen met hun Alpha Strategy. In het afgelopen half decennium heeft de Alpha Strategy elke maand een positief rendement opgeleverd. Dit weerspiegelt DHF Capital's toewijding aan het leveren van consistente en betrouwbare beleggingsoplossingen, zelfs in uitdagende marktomstandigheden.

Naast het opmerkelijke succes van de Alpha Strategy is DHF Capital trots te kunnen melden dat zowel het DHF Gamma Fund als het DHF Forex Fund beter hebben gepresteerd dan de hedgefondsindustrie, die een gemiddeld rendement van 5,7 % heeft voor de eerste helft van 2024. Dit sectorgemiddelde werd onlangs gerapporteerd door Goldman Sachs en benadrukt de uitzonderlijke prestaties van de fondsen van DHF Capital in een zeer concurrerende markt.

“Deze mijlpaal is een bewijs van de kracht van onze beleggingsstrategieën en de expertise van ons team”, zegt Bas Kooijman, CEO en assest manager van DHF Capital SA. “In een marktomgeving die ronduit uitdagend is geweest, is de consistente prestatie van onze Alpha Strategy, om maand na maand positieve rendementen te leveren, een duidelijke indicator van de waarde die wij onze beleggers bieden. We zijn trots op onze prestaties en blijven ons inzetten om onze klanten innovatieve en veerkrachtige financiële oplossingen te bieden.”

Het succes van DHF Capital in de afgelopen vijf jaar benadrukt de aanhoudende toewijding aan het behalen van superieure beleggingsresultaten voor haar klanten. De uitgebreide reeks beleggingsstrategieën van het bedrijf, waaronder de Alfa-, Gamma- en Forex-fondsen, blijft voldoen aan de geavanceerde eisen van institutionele en welgestelde beleggers wereldwijd.

Nu DHF Capital deze opmerkelijke prestatie viert, kijkt het bedrijf ernaar uit om verder te bouwen op haar succesvolle nalatenschap door het aanbieden van geavanceerde financiële producten en beleggingsoplossingen die consistente waarde leveren aan haar klanten.

Source: <a href="https://www.ondernemersbelang.nl/nieuws/dhf-capital-viert-vijf-jaar-onafgebroken-positieve-resultaten-met-haar-alpha-strategy/" target="_blank"> Het Ondernemers Belang </a>

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(NL) DHF Capital viert vijf jaar onafgebroken positieve resultaten met haar Alpha Strategy

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De valutamarkt zal deze week vooral aandacht hebben voor de banencijfers, met name het Amerikaanse banenrapport van vrijdag. Dat stelde Rabobank maandag.

De euro/dollar stond aan het einde van de ochtend 0,1 procent hoger op 1,0573.

"*Zal de banengroei weer boven de 400.000 uitkomen?*" is volgens marktanalist Teeuwe Mevissen van Rabobank de voornaamste vraag voor valutabeleggers. Een sterke banengroei wijst op een sterke economie, en betekent dat de Federal Reserve de rente langer hoog moet houden om de economie en daarmee de inflatie af te remmen.

Het sentiment lijkt niet te worden beïnvloed door het Israëlische grondoffensief dat sinds het weekend is ingezet in de Gaza-strook, aangezien de euro/dollar iets hoger staat dan voor het weekend. Geopolitieke onrust vertaalt zich doorgaans juist in een sterkere dollar.

Ook de rentemarkten vertonen maandag weinig opvallende bewegingen volgens Mevissen. 

Behalve het banenrapport zulllen ook rentebesluiten van centrale banken, waaronder de Federal Reserve en Bank of England, voor beweging kunnen zorgen. 

Rabobank blijft verwachten dat de euro/dollar in de komende drie tot zes maanden tot een niveau rond 1,02 zal dalen, om over 12 maanden weer terug rond 1,05 te komen.

Bas Kooijman van DHF Capital verwacht dat de dollar rond het huidige sterke niveau blijft in de komende maanden, maar dat een daling van de obligatierendementen de koers van de dollar onder druk zal zetten.  

Economisch nieuws is er maandag over de Nederlandse producentenprijzen in september en het producentenvertrouwen in oktober, dat negatief bleef, hoewel iets minder dan een maand eerder. Ook is er een cijfer over het consumentenvertrouwen in de eurozone en een voorlopig Duits inflatiecijfer.

Dinsdag volgt een voorlopig inflatiecijfer voor de eurozone. Ook zijn er later in de week inkoopmanagersindexen voor de industrie uit verschillende regio's.

De Duitse economie bleek in het derde kwartaal licht gekrompen met 0,1 procent. In het tweede kwartaal groeide de Duitse economie juist nog met 0,1 procent, na een pas op de plaats in het eerste kwartaal.

Source: [beleggen.nl](https://www.beleggen.nl/nieuws/783893/Valuta-aandacht-gericht-op-Amerikaanse-banenrapport.aspx)

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(NL) Valuta: aandacht gericht op Amerikaanse banenrapport

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(NL) DHF Capital: Wereldwijde markten passen zich aan

This article was published on November 7, 2024.

While Walmart is a household name worldwide, few people truly know the story of Sam Walton, the visionary entrepreneur who founded it. Walton’s journey provides valuable lessons for high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) looking to build and maintain generational wealth. His strategic decisions, frugality, and unwavering commitment to long-term goals offer a roadmap for those seeking to replicate his success.

**Beginnings and Early Lessons**

Sam Walton was born in 1918 in Oklahoma during an economically challenging time in U.S. history. Growing up during the Great Depression, Walton developed a strong work ethic and a knack for frugality, which would later be instrumental in his success. He purchased a Ben Franklin variety store in Arkansas in 1945, armed with a $20,000 loan and $5,000 in savings. By implementing innovative practices like discount pricing and extended hours, Walton quickly grew the business and acquired several Ben Franklin franchises.

**The Birth of Walmart**

Walton’s breakthrough came in 1962 when he opened the first Walmart Discount City in Rogers, Arkansas. His mission was clear: provide low-cost goods to underserved rural areas. Walton’s business model relied on high-volume, low-cost sales, efficient supply chains, and exceptional customer service, a formula that set Walmart apart in the retail industry. By 1970, Walmart had grown to 38 stores and went public, which allowed Walton to leverage capital for further expansion. Innovations such as bulk purchasing, aggressive pricing, and a satellite-based inventory tracking system kept Walmart ahead of its competition.

**Key Takeaway: Long-Term Vision**

One of Walton’s most profound lessons for HNWIs is the importance of maintaining a long-term vision. By taking out a loan and risking his savings, he built Walmart into the conglomerate that it is today; but let’s dive beyond this while keeping his words in mind, “Capital isn’t scarce; vision is.”

Walton’s choice to retain a significant equity stake when Walmart went public reflects his commitment to building enduring wealth. By betting on himself and his company’s growth, he ensured that his wealth would scale with Walmart’s success. For investors today, holding onto significant equity in high-growth ventures can result in compounding wealth. This approach provides consistent returns and positions investors to benefit from the steady growth of their assets rather than liquidating prematurely for immediate gains.

**Strategic Reinvestment: A Pathway to Growth**

With Walton reinvesting profits back into Walmart was a key factor in the company’s rapid expansion and success. By allocating capital to enhance infrastructure, supply chain efficiency, and technology, he diversified the company’s capabilities, reduced risk, and maximized growth potential. From adopting advanced technologies like computerized inventory systems and pioneering its use in retail to expanding into new markets with ventures such as Sam’s Club and international stores and enhancing customer experience through store improvements and private label brands, these efforts not only streamlined operations and increased profitability but also diversified revenue streams and strengthened Walmart’s market position. For HNWIs, applying strategic reinvestment principles can be highly beneficial. Instead of merely accumulating wealth, focusing investments on areas that foster long-term growth - such as innovative technologies, new market expansions, or operational improvements - can enhance wealth and distribute risk effectively. This is an instrumental approach to protect against market volatility and economic downturns, one I strongly advocate for with both new and existing clientele.

**Family Governance and Legacy Planning**

Deeply committed to involving his family in the business, Walton ensured that his principles and vision were passed down to future generations. He understood that maintaining his family's wealth and legacy not only required financial acumen but also a structured approach to governance. This was evident in how he incorporated them into Walmart’s operations - a decision that has enabled the Walton family to retain its position as Walmart’s largest shareholder with 50% of its shares.

From deliberately assigning key roles to his children within Walmart to mentoring and involving them in the decision-making process early on, his framework was not just about maintaining control but more so about ensuring that his family members were prepared to uphold the legacy he had built. For HNWIs, establishing a robust family governance framework is crucial to preserving wealth across generations. This involves creating structures such as family councils or boards that include family members who are educated and involved in the management of family assets. A clear succession plan should be in place, detailing how leadership and decision-making responsibilities will transition over time. Furthermore, such a framework also helps to prevent conflicts, which can be a significant risk to the preservation of wealth.

**The Legacy of Generational Wealth**

These are just some of the keys that aided Walton in solidifying his legacy. By the time of his death in 1992, Sam Walton's net worth was estimated to be around $8.6 billion, making him one of the richest individuals in the world at that time. Today, Walmart is the world's largest retailer, and the Walton family remains one of the wealthiest families globally, with their combined net worth exceeding $200 billion.

As Sam Walton once said, “Most of us don’t invent ideas. We take the best ideas from someone else.”

While a financial advisor may not be equipped to help you start and run a business, a competent one can guide you in the right direction to successfully grow your wealth; so that one day, if you so choose, you can leverage these resources to build a conglomerate of your own – but more importantly, be well-positioned to ensure your funds grow exponentially with tried-and-true approaches steering you towards this goal.

Source: <a href="https://businesslobbies.com/banking&finance/wealth%20management/sam-waltons-blueprint-for-hnwis-from-walmart-to-wealth" target="_blank"> Business Lobbies </a>

Incoming high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) are projected to invest a staggering $4.4 billion in Dubai property in 2024, representing a remarkable 76 percent increase from the previous year.

This surge in investment underscores Dubai’s growing appeal as a safe haven for the world’s wealthy elite.

Subscribe to read more on <a href="https://www.arabianbusiness.com/money/wealth/uae-millionaires-real-estate-investment-2024-dubai" target="_blank"> Arabian Business </a>



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UAE’s HNWI influx to drive $4.4bn in Dubai real estate investments by year’s end

This article was published on August 19th, 2024.

This comes as millionaire migration surges globally, with the UAE experiencing a notable influx of wealthy residents

The United Arab Emirates can expect a further influx in ultra-high net worth individuals relocations fuelled by tax benefits and new regulations, an expert told Arabian Business.

This trend, which experts say is likely to continue, is reshaping the region’s wealth management sector and driving significant infrastructure investments.

“The remarkable influx of UHNWIs from across the globe to the Middle East, and the United Arab Emirates in particular, has seen this community adapting to the UAE as their new home, reflecting strong confidence and a long-term commitment to be based out of the country,” said Tariq Nakhooda, Country Head, UAE at IQ-EQ, an investor services group.

Read more on <a href="https://www.arabianbusiness.com/money/wealth/uae-poised-for-long-term-uhnwi-influx-as-middle-east-hub-status-grows?utm_medium=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=UAE%20poised%20for%20UNHWI%20influx%20MASSIVE%20Saudia%20flight%20ticket%20discount%20Tokenisation%20to%20fuel%20Dubai%20real%20estate%20growth%20072417%20AM&utm_content=UAE%20poised%20for%20UNHWI%20influx%20MASSIVE%20Saudia%20flight%20ticket%20discount%20Tokenisation%20to%20fuel%20Dubai%20real%20estate%20growth%20072417%20AM+CID_e098707829c10854b755ad01000b02cf&utm_source=Newsletters&utm_term=UAE%20poised%20for%20long-term%20UHNWI%20influx%20as%20Middle%20East%20hub%20status%20grows" target="_blank"> Arabian Business </a>

UAE poised for long-term UHNWI influx as Middle East hub status grows

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Sam Walton’s Blueprint for HNWIs: From Walmart to Wealth

This article was published on October 30, 2024.

El oro ha subido un 0,7% este miércoles y ha vuelto a renovar sus máximos históricos, consiguiendo además romper por primera vez la barrera de los 2.800 dólares por onza.

David Morrison, analista senior de mercados en FCA, destaca que el impulso para el metal precioso "se mantiene al alza, aunque por debajo de los niveles de sobrecompra observados a finales de septiembre", y añade que "hay menos espacio en comparación con mediados de octubre".

"Todos los promedios móviles están acumulados de manera alcista, con el de 50 días por debajo del de 20 días y el de 100 días cómodamente por debajo de ambos. La última vez que los tres convergieron fue a mediados de febrero, justo antes del inicio de esta etapa del repunte, cuando el oro cotizaba por debajo de los 2.000 dólares la onza. Entonces, todo parece un caos para los alcistas, y eso también significa que es hora de ser extremadamente cautelosos", señala.

Por su parte, Bas Kooijman, director general y gestor de activos de DHF Capital, asegura que los aumentos en el precio del oro se vieron "impulsados ​​por la fuerte demanda en medio de la incertidumbre mundial".

"Las elecciones presidenciales en curso en Estados Unidos han introducido una prima de riesgo en los mercados, particularmente a medida que Trump gana apoyo, lo que genera preocupaciones sobre los aranceles, la inflación y las cuestiones fiscales. Además, las tensiones geopolíticas continúan reforzando el estatus del oro como activo de refugio seguro", detalla.

Además, también se muestra optimista sobre las perspectivas a futuro del oro, y asegura que las condiciones actuales de mercado "podrían potencialmente respaldar un crecimiento constante del oro hacia el nivel de 3.000 dólares por onza en 2025".

Source: <a href="https://www.bolsamania.com/noticias/pulsos-materias-primas/oro-renueva-maximos-historicos-rompe-barrera-2800-dolares--17865266.html" target="_blank"> Bolsamania </a>

This article was published on June 28th, 2024.

El yen está en una auténtica encrucijada. No solo por la depreciación sin freno que está experimentando frente al dólar estadounidense (el cruce ha tocado esta semana mínimos de 38 años), sino también porque los próximos datos macro que se van a conocer tanto en Japón como en EEUU podrían ser determinantes para su evolución. En vistas de lo que pase, las autoridades niponas pueden actuar en uno u otro sentido. El dilema al que se enfrentan, en cualquier caso, es considerable, y es que tienen que tener cuidado si quieren estabilizar al yen sin dañar la economía.

Japón confirma la primera intervención en el mercado de divisas desde 2022
Por lo pronto, este viernes la divisa japonesa se enfrenta a una nueva prueba de fuego con la publicación, por un lado, de los datos de inflación en Japón, y por otro, de los datos del PCE deflactor en EEUU, que es la medida de inflación favorita de la Reserva Federal (Fed) y en la que basa sus decisiones sobre los tipos de interés.

Pero, ¿por qué son tan importantes estos datos? Los expertos lo explican. Por ejemplo, Bas Kooijman, director general y gestor de activos de DHF Capital, comenta que las cifras estadounidenses "podrían influir aún más en las perspectivas de tipos", es decir, determinar si la Fed empieza a relajar su política monetaria ya en septiembre, como descuenta el mercado, o espera aún más y mantiene los tipos más altos durante más tiempo.

Se espera que el PCE básico aumente hasta el 2,6% interanual, por debajo de la lectura actual del 2,7%. "Si el PCE revela resultados mejores de lo esperado, el yen podría enfrentar una mayor presión a la baja frente al dólar", comenta, pero también dice que "una inflación japonesa mayor de lo esperado podría fortalecer los rendimientos y respaldar al yen".

James Harte, de Tickmill Group, también se refiere a esta cuestión. Según señala, la lectura del PCE básico de EEUU "será clave para el par", es decir, para el cruce yen/dólar. "Si vemos una sorpresa a la baja, esto debería aumentar las expectativas de relajación monetaria en septiembre, lo que haría caer al dólar", comenta.

Y si hay un movimiento significativo a la baja en el dólar, esto "podría ayudar a aliviar la necesidad de intervención" de las autoridades japonesas en el mercado cambiario. Sin embargo, apunta, "si los datos superan las previsiones, diluyendo las posibilidades de flexibilización en septiembre en EEUU e impulsando al dólar al alza, esto podría ser la gota que colma el vaso y provocar una nueva intervención" de Japón como la que se produjo en mayo.

Precisamente, la sombra de una nueva intervención monetaria lleva días cerniéndose sobre el país nipón. Harte también hace referencia a este asunto: "La cuestión más importante para el Banco de Japón (BoJ, por sus siglas en inglés) es cómo hacer subir el yen de manera sostenible, dado que las intervenciones anteriores e incluso una subida récord de tipos no han ayudado" a la divisa.

Aunque no es el único. Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo, analista de mercado en xs.com, apunta que "a medida que el yen sigue perdiendo terreno, la posibilidad de una intervención gubernamental de Japón se vuelve cada vez más plausible". Y su colega Rania Gule, que también es analista de mercado en xs.com, se expresa en términos similares al afirmar que "los inversores se mantienen cautelosos, esperando una posible intervención del gobierno japonés para sostener el yen".

Sobre todo, remarca, al calor de las últimas declaraciones del viceministro japonés de Finanzas, Masato Kanda, que ha dicho que el gobierno está dispuesto a tomar medidas contra las fluctuaciones monetarias excesivas que perjudican a la economía nipona. Y el ministro de Finanzas japonés, Shunichi Suzuki, también ha dicho que el país está "profundamente preocupado por el impacto del tipo de cambio en la economía" y que el gobierno tomará "las medidas necesarias" ante estas oscilaciones indeseables de la divisa.

OTRAS OPCIONES

No obstante, esa no es la única opción que tienen las autoridades de Japón para intentar salvaguardar la estabilidad del yen. En este sentido, Harte señala que los operadores del mercado esperan que el banco central japonés anuncie una reducción en las compras de bonos en julio, aunque en su opinión "los riesgos ahora se inclinan hacia una nueva subida de tipos, lo que debería provocar cierta fortaleza en el yen a corto plazo".

Di Giacomo también comenta las otras posibles medidas que tiene sobre la mesa el BoJ. "En respuesta a esta crisis monetaria, el Banco de Japón está considerando un cambio significativo en su política. En su próxima reunión de julio se espera que adopte una postura más agresiva, que podría incluir un aumento de las tasas de interés".

Como dice el analista, "esta sería una medida audaz destinada a estabilizar el yen, controlar la inflación y reducir la dependencia de compras masivas de bonos". Y recuerda que, de hecho, el gobernador del BoJ, Kazuo Ueda, ya ha insinuado la posibilidad de un recorte sustancial en las compras de bonos, lo que podría indicar un cambio en la dirección de la política monetaria del país.

"Este enfoque más agresivo del BoJ también busca equilibrar la necesidad de estabilidad económica para evitar perturbaciones en los mercados financieros", añade Di Giacomo, que cree que la cita de julio "será crucial, ya que se esperan más detalles sobre cómo planea el banco central nipón manejar esta delicada situación".

En sus propias palabras, la apreciación del dólar y la consiguiente depreciación del yen han hecho que Japón se encuentre en una "encrucijada económica". Y es que, remarca, "el Banco de Japón enfrenta el desafío de estabilizar su moneda sin desestabilizar su economía", lo que en última instancia "determinará el futuro del yen en los mercados globales".

Source: <a href="https://www.bolsamania.com/noticias/divisas/encrucijada-yen-dilema-japon-opciones-estabilizar-moneda--17002517.html" target="_blank"> Bolsamania </a>

(ES) Encrucijada para el yen y dilema para Japón: ¿qué opciones hay para estabilizar la divisa?

Atentos a:

Producción industrial UE,PIB; Anuncios de Commerzbank, ABN Amro, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, Thyssenkrupp, Burberry, E.ON, RWE, Imperial Brands, Britvic, Compass Group, Experian

En la apertura:

Las bolsas europeas van camino de un inicio de sesión alcista este miércoles, mientras los inversores se mantienen a la espera de los datos de IPC de EE.UU. que se esperan para luego en la sesión. En horarios de Asia, los selectivos bursátiles han cotizado mixtos; los rendimientos de la deuda del Tesoro se han mantenido planos; el dólar se ha depreciado; mientras que el crudo y el oro se han fortalecido.

PRINCIPALES TITULARES DE LA PRENSA:

La bolsa podría encarar un día "feo" si el IPC de abril sale por encima de este nivel

Un rally ha llevado a la bolsa de vuelta hacia niveles record en mayo tras los recortes del mes anterior, pero son muchos los que piensan que los datos de inflación de abril que se conocerán este miércoles decidirán si se establecen nuevos máximos o nuevas pérdidas.

Tom Essaye, el fundador de Sevens Report Research, analizó los distintos escenarios posibles para el índice de precios al consumo correspondiente al mes de abril.

RENTA VARIABLE:

La renta variable europea se encamina hacia una apertura en terreno positivo este miércoles, con los operadores de mercado digiriendo un informe de inflación en EE.UU., incluso mientras esperan con gran expectación a la publicación de otro, el cual ofrecerá detalles sobre como vienen evolucionando los precios al consumo.

Un informe sobre la inflación mayorista contuvo señales mixtas para los inversores, quienes intentan escudriñar la senda a seguir por la Reserva Federal en su lucha contra la inflación.

El índice de precios a la producción ha subido en más de lo esperado por los economistas en abril, pero los datos de marzo se revisaron a la baja. Tras los datos de precios al consumo del miércoles, los inversores podrían verse forzados a replantearse su optimismo. Una lectura sorprendentemente elevada correspondiente a abril prolongaría la racha de tres informes que han salido por encima de lo esperado.

"Un dato de IPC caliente crearía volatilidad conforme se reducen las expectativas para recortes en los tipos", dicen desde Bel Air Investment Advisors.

DIVISAS:

El dólar ha retrocedido ligeramente a lo largo de la sesión asiática, con el conjunto de riesgos aparentemente sesgado un poco a la baja en el caso de la divisa estadounidense.

Dado el modo en el que los mercados viraron en abril hacia descontar más recortes de tipos de la Fed, desde luego que a los operadores de mercado les gusta posicionarse para una mayor desinflación en EE.UU., dice Maybank.

Los datos de IPC se conocerán más adelante durante la sesión.

Una lectura más débil de lo anticipada este miércoles podría llevar al dólar y a los rendimientos de la deuda del Tesoro a la baja, a la vez que apoyan al euro, dice DHF Capital.

BONOS:

Los rendimientos de la deuda del Tesoro se mantienen planos a la espera de la pequeña caída en la inflación de EE.UU. que se anticipa y con los mercados ateniéndose a sus expectativas para un recorte de tipos en septiembre, a pesar de la presión en contra por parte de algunos funcionarios de la Fed y de algunos analistas.

Los rendimientos de la deuda del Tesoro podrían subir de forma considerable si los datos de inflación dentro del sector servicios de EE.UU. arrojan una aceleración. Ello incluso si la tasa general de inflación sale como se espera, dice la gestora de activos TwentyFour.

"La Fed necesita que la inflación en los precios de la vivienda y dentro del sector servicios, en general, se sumen a la desinflación vista en el sector de bienes para que la tasa general caiga de forma sostenida hacia el objetivo de la Fed", dice.

Source: <a href="https://es.marketscreener.com/cotizacion/divisas/EURO-US-DOLLAR-EUR-USD-4591/noticia/BOLET-N-MATINAL-15-de-mayo-de-2024-46730396/" target="_blank"> MarketScreener </a>

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(ES) BOLETÍN MATINAL : 15 de mayo de 2024

(ES) El oro renueva máximos históricos y rompe la barrera de los 2.800 dólares

This article was published on October 21, 2024.

En EE. UU., las bolsas alcanzaron nuevos máximos, y tanto el S&P 500 como el Dow Jones Industrial Average y el S&P MidCap 400 marcaron niveles históricos. El optimismo se debe a un sólido inicio de la temporada de beneficios, ya que las acciones más importantes del sector bancario, como JPMorgan Chase y Wells Fargo, obtuvieron resultados mejores de lo esperado.

El ligero crecimiento de facturación de JPMorgan fue especialmente bien recibido y mitigó los temores por bajadas de beneficios más pronunciadas en el sector bancario. 

El rendimiento de las acciones de crecimiento, representadas por empresas como NVIDIA, superó el de las acciones de valor. Las acciones de NVIDIA experimentaron un aumento considerable que ayudó a compensar la bajada de Alphabet, matriz de Google, ante las noticias de que el Departamento de Justicia del gobierno de Estados Unidos podría dictaminar una posible división forzada de la empresa.

Por su parte, Tesla se enfrenta a retos de futuro, ya que el mercado ha reaccionado con frialdad a la presentación del Robotaxi y la Robovan.

En cuanto al estado de la economía, la inflación escaló ligeramente por encima de las previsiones en septiembre, y los precios subyacentes (los que excluyen alimentos y energía) se incrementaron en un 0,3%. Aunque el aumento fue modesto, marca el primer incremento interanual de los precios subyacentes desde marzo, en especial debido al aumento de los precios en sanidad y transportes. Sin embargo, la bajada de los precios de las energías ayudó a equilibrar el panorama inflacionario general.

A pesar de ello, el Departamento de Trabajo de Estados Unidos informó de un aumento sorpresa de las solicitudes semanales de subsidio de desempleo, en lo que representa la cifra más alta en 14 meses, que se explica sobre todo por los trastornos provocados por el huracán Helene y a la significativa pérdida de empleo en Michigan. 

Con este panorama, la decisión sobre tasas de interés de noviembre sigue siendo incierta, pues, aunque algunas de las autoridades federales están a favor de una pequeña bajada de 25 puntos básicos, el mercado se decanta por la posibilidad de que la Fed congele tasas. La rentabilidad de las notas del Tesoro a 10 años también subió en respuesta a estas cifras de inflación, alcanzando su punto más alto desde el mes de julio.

En Europa, las bolsas cerraron la semana en tono positivo. El índice paneuropeo STOXX 600 subió en un 0,66%, impulsado por la esperanza de que el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) decida acelerar las bajadas de tasas y de que China aumente sus estímulos económicos. Entre los mercados más importantes, los beneficios más significativos se registraron en el FTSE MIB italiano, con un 2,13% arriba, seguido del DAX alemán (1,32% arriba) y del CAC 40 francés (+0,48%). En cambio, el FTSE 100 británico perdió un 0,33%.

En Alemania, la economía sigue enfrentando retos importantes. El Ministerio Federal de Economía y Protección Climática ajustó sus previsiones y ahora apunta a una contracción del 0,2% en 2024, una cifra de crecimiento más pesimista que la anterior, del 0,3%. La fuerte caída de los pedidos de fábrica de agosto (5,8%) subrayó aún más los problemas del país, a pesar del repunte en la producción industrial, en especial del sector del automóvil.

El BCE sigue mostrándose cauto sobre futuros recortes de tasas, pero reconoce que espera que la inflación se acerque al objetivo del 2% para finales de año. Sin embargo, algunas autoridades sugieren que el ritmo de la bajada de tasas podría acelerarse. En este sentido cabe destacar las palabras del gobernador del Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau, que apuntó a la posibilidad de que a la bajada de tasas de octubre le siguieran otros nuevos recortes, lo que refleja un panorama económico más débil. 

Mientras tanto, Reino Unido da muestras de resiliencia, ya que su Economía volvió a la senda del crecimiento en agosto, cuando se registró una expansión del 0,2% tras unos meses de francas caídas. Esto se debe en gran medida al repunte de los sectores manufacturero y de la construcción, a pesar de que la trayectoria general de la economía sigue siendo motivo de preocupación. 

Pasando ahora a Asia, las bolsas japonesas tuvieron una buena semana, con el Nikkei 225 sumando un 2,45%. El yen japonés se debilitó un poco más frente al dólar de EE. UU., lo que beneficia a los exportadores y sugiere un panorama positivo para el crecimiento económico del país.

Sin embargo, los datos económicos muestran señales mixtas, pues los salarios reales bajan en un 0,6% interanual gracias a la reducción de los bonos de verano. Esta debilidad en el aspecto salarial hace pensar que el Banco de Japón (BoJ) pudiera retrasar nuevas subidas de las tasas de interés, a pesar de que persisten las presiones inflacionarias.

En cambio, las bolsas chinas experimentaron caídas, con el índice Compuesto Shanghái perdiendo un 3,56% en una semana más corta de lo habitual por ser periodo festivo. Se ha apagado la intensidad por las medidas de estímulo dictaminadas por Beijing, y el gasto de los consumidores durante el festivo del Día Nacional de China se ha mantenido por debajo de niveles prepandémicos.

Además, el banco central chino introdujo nuevas medidas de liquidez, incluyendo un programa de permutas (swap) por valor de 500.000 millones de RMB con el objetivo de apoyar al mercado de capitales, medida que, de momento, no ha producido ninguna recuperación significativa en el sentimiento del mercado. 

Para concluir, la semana pasada asistimos a diversas respuestas de los mercados globales ante datos económicos, cambios en políticas y beneficios corporativos. Mientras que las bolsas de EE. UU. se beneficiaron de un ambiente optimista gracias a los beneficios corporativos, en Europa la economía sigue suscitando preocupaciones, y los mercados asiáticos, sobre todo Japón y China, atraviesan circunstancias diferentes según el panorama económico de cada país.

A medida que los inversores navegan por aguas inciertas, todas las miradas siguen puestas en los bancos centrales y en sus próximas medidas en materia de política monetaria.

Source: <a href="https://tynmagazine.com/informe-financiero-semanal-global/" target="_blank"> Tyn Magazine </a>

Imparable. Así se puede calificar el rally alcista del oro, que ha llevado a la onza del metal precioso a marcar 8 máximos históricos consecutivos en las últimas 8 jornadas de trading. Este martes, ha avanzado un 0,82%, hasta alcanzar los 2.370 dólares

Bas Kooijman, CEO y gestor en DHF Capital, afirma que "*los precios del oro están aumentando a niveles sin precedentes, respaldados por las compras de los bancos centrales, así como por las preocupaciones geopolíticas y las expectativas sobre la política monetaria*".

Este experto añade que "el impulso alcista se ve sostenido por las expectativas de múltiples recortes de las tasas de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal este año, aunque el optimismo sobre este asunto se ha visto atenuado por los recientes datos sobre inflación y nóminas no agrícolas de Estados Unidos".

"*De cara al futuro*", explica Bas Kooijman, "*los participantes del mercado esperan la publicación de las cifras clave de inflación de Estados Unidos y las actas de la reunión del FOMC del miércoles para evaluar la probabilidad, el momento y la amplitud de las reducciones de las tasas de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal*". En su opinión, "*los datos podrían introducir volatilidad en el mercado de metales preciosos*".

Por otra parte, afirma que "*las compras de los bancos centrales, especialmente por parte de China, siguen siendo un importante factor de apoyo al oro, y otras instituciones de mercados emergentes, como el Banco Central de India, también están aumentando sus reservas del metal amarillo*".

"*A pesar de alcanzar niveles máximos*", concluye Bas Kooijman, "*los precios del oro siguen respaldados por una demanda sólida, como lo demuestra el aumento de las posiciones largas netas*".

"*Sin embargo*", añade que "*tras su fuerte subida, el oro podría quedar expuesto a correcciones de precios a corto plazo, en particular si los datos estadounidenses del miércoles son mejores de lo esperado*".

Source: <a href="https://www.bolsamania.com/noticias/mercados/oro-sigue-imparable-renueva-maximos-historicos-cerca-2400-dolares--16571214.html" target="_blank"> Bolsamania </a>

(ES) El oro sigue imparable y renueva sus máximos históricos cerca de 2.400 dólares

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(ES) Informe financiero semanal global

This article was published on October 15, 2024.

O dólar fechou em alta em relação a moedas de países desenvolvidos nesta segunda-feira, 14, com investidores ajustando posições diante de novos comentários de dirigentes do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central norte-americano) e na expectativa pela decisão de política monetária do Banco Central Europeu (BCE) na próxima quinta-feira. A falta de anúncio de novas medidas de estímulo na China também balizou os negócios, com os investidores ainda na expectativa por um novo pacote econômico, após o ministro de Finanças do país, Lan Foan, prometer novidades em breve.

O mercado de Treasuries permaneceu fechado nesta segunda-feira em meio a feriado nos EUA.

O índice DXY, que mede a variação da moeda norte-americana ante uma cesta de pares fortes, fechou em alta de 0,34%, a 103,241 pontos. O dólar se valorizava a 149,78 ienes neste fim de tarde, enquanto o euro cedia a US$ 1,0906, e a libra baixava a US$ 1,3056.

O presidente do Fed de Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, mencionou que a política monetária nos Estados Unidos ainda é restritiva, mas que “mais cortes modestos nas taxas parecem apropriados”. Já o diretor do Fed Christopher Waller afirmou que os fortes dados econômicos recentes sugerem que o Fed deve continuar a flexibilizar a política monetária “em um ritmo deliberado”.

CEO e gestor de ativos da DHF Capital S.A, Bas Kooijman afirma que há expectativas também em relação ao BCE. “Com a inflação na zona do euro agora sob controle, abaixo da meta de 2%, juntamente com a economia lenta da Alemanha, reforça as expectativas de mais estímulos monetários”, diz.

A incerteza política francesa e a piora das finanças públicas também estão pesando sobre o euro, afirma ele. Por outro lado, o dólar continua forte devido à inflação relativamente alta dos EUA e a um mercado de trabalho resiliente, segundo Kooijman.

Source: <a href="https://istoe.com.br/moedas-globais-dolar-sobe-e-euro-cede-com-aposta-de-cortes-de-juros-pelo-fed-e-bce/" target="_blank"> ISTOE </a>

This article was published on June 12th, 2024.

O ouro fechou em alta, à medida que os mercados tomaram nota dos dados mais fracos que o esperado da inflação nos EUA, antes da decisão de política monetária do Federal Reserve (Fed). O índice de preços ao consumidor (CPI, na sigla em inglês) do país pressionou o dólar, e o movimento no câmbio tende a apoiar o metal.

O contrato futuro de ouro para agosto na Comex, divisão de metais da New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), fechou em alta de 1,21%, para US$ 2.354,80 por onça troy.

O metal era negociado nas máximas desde a sexta-feira, quando dados do payroll frustraram as esperanças de um corte na taxa de juros em breve, provocando um movimento de liquidação do metal. Os dados do CPI divulgados hoje, porém, voltaram a alimentar a expectativa por corte de juros pelo Fed em setembro.
Os juros dos Treasuries estão normalmente inversamente relacionados com os preços do ouro, uma vez que o metal concorre com a renda fixa americana como opção de ativo seguro. Para Bas Kooijman, CEO e gestor de ativos da gestora de investimentos DHF Capital, a inflação menos intensa deve continuar a impulsionar o ouro.

Mesmo com a expectativa de manutenção dos juros hoje pelo Fed, os futuros do ouro subiram quase 14% no acumulado do ano, superando a maioria dos outros ativos, uma vez que questões como o aumento da dívida nacional permanecem persistentes, disse Jonathan Rose, CEO do Genesis Gold Group. “Esperamos que fatores como a instabilidade política e econômica nos Estados Unidos tenham um impacto enorme no valor do ouro no futuro”, disse Rose. Com muitas previsões de que o ouro exceda a marca de US$ 3.000 a US$ 5.000 por onça-troy na próxima década, a Genesis Gold permanece altamente otimista em relação ao metal precioso, acrescentou Rose.

*Com informações da Dow Jones Newswires.

Sources: <a href="https://www.msn.com/pt-br/dinheiro/economia-e-negocios/ouro-sobe-ante-recuo-do-d%C3%B3lar-ap%C3%B3s-cpi-dos-eua-e-com-perspectiva-de-demanda-apoiada/ar-BB1o6HJt?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds" target="_blank"> Microsoft Start </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9l" target="_blank"> br.investing.com </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9k" target="_blank"> Istoe </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/HoA9" target="_blank"> Opovo </a>

<a href="lhttps://mediao.me/Ho9o" target="_blank"> Folha de Pernambuco </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9m" target="_blank"> Estadao </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9r" target="_blank"> Liberal </a>

<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9s" target="_blank"> RD </a>

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<a href="https://mediao.me/Ho9q" target="_blank"> Diario Do Grande ABC </a>

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As gigantes tecnológicas destacaram-se pela negativa em bolsa no início desta semana. Philippe Schneider, da DHF Capital, diz ao Jornal Económico que as desvalorizações vão continuar “se sentimento de risk-off continuar a pesar no mercado”.

Big Tech, Big Disappointment. As gigantes tecnológicas norte-americanas tiveram uma segunda-feira negativa em bolsa, depois de uma sexta-feira também desanimadora em Wall Street. A semana seria para sobressair a pós-divulgação de resultados, mas os investidores mostraram claramente que esperavam mais, apesar das subidas expressivas nos lucros.

As Sete Magníficas – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia e Tesla – perderam aproximadamente 900 mil milhões de dólares (821 mil milhões de euros) em valor de mercado, de acordo com a “Reuters“.

“O grupo Magnificent Seven sofreu hoje um declínio significativo, juntamente com o resto mercado, com uma perda combinada de centenas de milhares de milhões em valor de mercado. Esta recessão foi desencadeada por um relatório fraco sobre o emprego na sexta-feira e pela redução da atividade industrial na maior economia do mundo, alimentando preocupações sobre a economia dos Estados Unidos e a probabilidade de uma recessão”, explica ao Jornal Económico (JE) o responsável global de vendas da DHF Capital.

Philippe Schneider destaca ainda as “preocupações” em torno das “despesas elevadas com IA e a desaceleração do crescimento em áreas-chave”, apesar dos resultados líquidos positivos. “A Apple, em particular, esteve sob maior pressão depois da decisão da Berkshire Hathaway de reduzir para metade a sua participação na empresa, sugerindo que investidores proeminentes poderiam estar a abandonar o sector. Estes fattores contribuíram para um sell-off agressivo, que poderá expandir-se se o atual sentimento de risk-off continuar a pesar no mercado”, esclarece ao JE.

A bolsa de Nova Iorque abriu e fechou no encarnado com o índice tecnológico a desvalorizar mais de 5%. Por volta das 16h15 (hora de Lisboa), estas eram as quedas das Sete Magníficas: Alphabet (-1,46%), Amazon (-3,40%), Apple (-3,36%), Meta (-3,39%), Nvidia (-6,63%) e Tesla (-3,47%). Os títulos da fabricante de chips, a empresa mais valiosa do mundo, chegaram a tombar 11%.

Ceticismo sobre a “moda” da IA
O sell-off está a levantar cada vez mais preocupações sobre uma eventual bolha da Inteligência Artificial (IA) rebentar. Aliás, no final da semana até o hedge fund Elliott Management, que gere cerca de 70 mil milhões em ativos, alertou que os clientes a Nvidia está numa “bolha” e que o hype em torno da tecnologia, que tem feito subir o preço das ações da empresa, é “exagerado”.

Numa mensagem enviada aos investidores e consultada pelo “Financial Times”, o fundo mostrava-se “cético” que as gigantes tecnológicas continuassem a comprar placas gráficas da Nvidia em volumes tão elevados, até porque há aplicações de IA que “não estão prontas para o horário nobre”. Parte das dúvidas em torno desta ideia serão tiradas apenas a 28 de agosto, quando a Nvidia divulgar contas.

Quanto às restantes magnificent, reportaram lucros em linha ou acima do esperado, mas guidances para o próximo trimestre abaixo das previsões. Citando a Bloomberg, “a Amazon, a Microsoft e a Alphabet tinham uma tarefa nesta época de resultados: mostrar que os milhares de milhões de dólares que cada uma investiu na infraestrutura que impulsiona o boom da IA estão a traduzir-se em vendas reais”. Certo esse que esse one job they had parece não ter sido cumprido, a avaliar pelas desvalorizações.

Min Lan Tan, diretor do gabinete de Investimentos da Ásia-Pacífico do UBS Global Wealth, mostra-se mais otimista, segundo a publicação norte-americana “Barron’s“: “Provavelmente, demorará algum tempo até que as empresas demonstrem que podem obter um retorno dos seus investimentos em IA, mas não há indicações de que as empresas estejam a desistir destes planos de investimento, dada a promessa da tecnologia”.

Warren Buffett desfaz-se de metade do investimento na Apple
A publicação do relatório e contas da Berkshire Hathaway, no sábado, foi um sinal do agravamento do momentum nas tecnológicas. Porquê? A empresa de Warren Buffett informou que reduziu a sua participação na Apple em quase 50%, de 174,3 mil milhões de dólares (158,8 mil milhões de euros) no final do ano passado para 84,2 mil milhões de dólares (76,7 mil milhões de euros) a 30 de junho de 2024.

O ânimo perante um trimestre recorde para marca da maçã mordida durou apenas dois dias. “Apesar de a fabricante do iPhone continuar a ser a cotada com maior peso na carteira da firma de Warren Buffett, a posição está agora avaliada em apenas 84,2 mil milhões de dólares. No segundo trimestre, a Berkshire vendeu mais de 75 mil milhões de dólares em ações, pelo que não foi apenas na Apple que reduziu”, explica Nuno Carregueiro, na research de mercado da BA&N.

Portanto, este é “um sinal de desconfiança de um dos investidores mais reputados do mundo numa altura em que os mercados acionistas estão a sofrer movimentos de correção agudos liderados pelas tecnológicas”, até porque, desde que começou a investir na Apple, em 2016, as ações da cotada dispararam 900%.

A amanhã de ontem foi tão negra que o VIX – CBOE Volatility Index da Chicago Board Options Exchange – atingiu máximos de quatro anos. O indicador que mede a volatilidade das bolsas chegou aos 65, quando na quinta-feira se encontrava apenas nos 17.

Quem também perdeu com este sell-off foram os bilionários por detrás das Big Tech. Segundo a tabela da revista “Forbes”, o presidente e cofundador da Amazon, Jeff Bezos, cujo cofre ficou com menos oito mil milhões de dólares, e o CEO da Nvidia, Jensen Huang, com menos 79 mil milhões de dólares, foram os maiores perdedores do dia.

Source: <a href="https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/big-tech-perdem-milhares-de-milhoes-e-sell-off-agressivo-podera-expandir-se/" target="_blank"> O Jornal Economico </a>
