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0302 2025

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Dollar Strengthens as Markets Digest Trade Tariffs and Brace for Economic Data

Bas Kooijman

The U.S. dollar started the week on a strong note as markets reacted to trade tariffs and anticipated key economic data. Over the weekend, President Trump imposed substantial tariffs on major trading partners, with Canada and Mexico facing a 25% increase and China a lower 10% hike. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum immediately vowed retaliatory measures, raising concerns about global inflation, which favors the US dollar.

Talks between the three leaders introduce the possibility of tariff reductions. Should a compromise emerge, the dollar could see selling pressures. Conversely, if no agreement is reached, the dollar is likely to retain its momentum.

Meanwhile, in the bond market, US Treasury yields were showing mixed performances. Yields could come under pressure if demand for safe-haven assets increases as investors face the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies. Looking forward, investors will closely monitor this week's key economic indicators, including the PMI, JOLTs and NFP, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve officials. These factors may heighten market volatility and influence the dollar’s trajectory.

Bas Kooijman

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