MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European stocks made little progress on Thursday in a cautious opening session, as traders awaited the European Central Bank's latest interest-rate decision.

UniCredit Research said sluggish decreases in inflation and a closing window of opportunity were among the main reasons why the ECB was likely to raise rates one last time on Thursday.

Meantime, Metzler Research said it was probably fair to assume that even the Governing Council "will not know until the last minute what the outcome of the discussion/vote will be…there are sufficiently pressing arguments for both sides."

Heavyweight miners and oil-linked stocks led London's FTSE 100 higher, helped by rising crude prices. Miners were boosted by a broker upgrade on Rio Tinto from JPMorgan.

Movers

Italian banks traded lower after Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ruled out scrapping a windfall tax on lenders' profits but said details of the measure could be amended provided the state receives the expected inflow.

"If there are corrections to be made, they can be considered, but I don't intend to backtrack," Meloni said on Italian television, adding changes could be made as long as the tax still yields the "just under" EUR3 billion in expected revenue.

Stocks to Watch

European real-estate companies performed well in the first half of the year, with most of them confirming their earnings forecasts and a few upgrading them, Deutsche Bank said, as it raised its target prices on Immofinanz, LEG Immobilien, TAG Immobilien and Vonovia, and lowered them for Icade and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield. Read more .

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures edged higher ahead of a busy day of economic data. Retail sales, weekly jobless claims and the producer price index are all due out ahead of the opening bell.

Adobe is set to post quarterly results after markets close.

Follow WSJ markets coverage here .

Forex:

The euro was firmer in early trading, but it could come under pressure as traders await the outcome of the ECB meeting, DHF Capital said.

"While the ECB is facing elevated inflation, the deteriorating economic conditions in the euro area could affect its interest rate decision, creating some doubts over whether it would raise rates or keep them unchanged," it said.

In addition, the weaker outlook for European economies, with Germany's expected to shrink this year, could continue to weigh on the euro's performance, DHF added.

DZ Bank said the ECB's rate decision will be key for euro moves.

The ECB Governing Council "will have to weigh up the continuing persistence of inflation against the worsening economic outlook," DZ Bank said, which favors "monetary policy standstill" but a further interest-rate increase cannot be ruled out in principle.

"For the euro, the absence of another rate hike could be a disappointment, as market participants now expect a hike of 25 basis points with a probability of 60%," it said.

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Energy:

Oil prices rose, with Brent setting a fresh 10-month high as investors anticipated a supply shortfall throughout the rest of the year.

Brent has risen in 11 of the last 15 trading sessions as Saudi Arabia's supply cuts bite, cuts that Riyadh has said it will continue until the end of the year.

OPEC and the IEA both issued reports this week which foresaw of a sharp deficit forming towards the end of the year if cuts remain in place. That could see Brent hitting $100 a barrel, ANZ said.

Metals:

Base metals were mixed and gold was lower as a strong dollar and the possibility of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve pressured dollar-backed commodities.

All eyes will be on the ECB's decision, Peak Trading Research said.

"The euro comprises 58% of the U.S. dollar index, so today's ECB policy decision and the currency impact on our commodity markets could be significant."

The uranium market is very tight and prices are likely to move higher heading into the year-end and 2024, Sachem Cove said.

"The rubber is meeting the road for supply and demand" after years of inventory drawdowns, it said, adding that it expects utilities to ramp up talks for uranium, conversion and enrichment via requests for proposals or private negotiations during the fall in the Northern Hemisphere.

Sources: Morningstar

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